052
FNUS73 KMPX 151456
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Kasota Prairie SNA - West...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
956 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Kasota Prairie SNA - West, expect mostly cloudy skies,
with light rain showers likely (50-70%) around 7-10pm today. Min
RH values will trend close to the high 30s as temperatures rise to
the low-mid 70s again today. Winds will generally be 10-15mph out
of the southeast, before shifting more westerly late this
evening behind the rain system.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 14
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /48400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /88700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............68  70  73  74  74  75  74  74  72  69  66  64
RH..............52  47  41  38  38  36  37  38  44  53  65  73
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  13  14  13  13  13  12  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.16  18  18  20  20  20  21  21  18  17  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.4 4.2 3.8 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  16  17  20  18  18  16  16  15  13  15  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night. Chance of rain showers
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 8 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight, then gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 16 mph shifting to the west 9 to 12
                    mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Brad Bolduan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414286.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brad.Bolduan@state.mn.us