Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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808
FNUS73 KMPX 091326
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Mud Creek Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
752 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...A mix of sun and clouds is expected today, with a small
chance of a few showers mainly between 11am-2pm. Winds will come from
the northeast at 10-15 mph, gusting to 15-20 mph, with RH values bottoming
out between 40-45 percent.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the afternoon.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 10 mph at
ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 9 to 12
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /23700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /79800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 16 to 20 mph shifting to the north
around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC MCR MCR
Weather cov..... SCH
Weather type.... RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............53 55 57 59 60 60 62 64 64 64 64 62
RH..............77 77 72 67 62 62 54 50 48 45 43 44
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N
20 FT wind spd..10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.20 18 18 18 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.7 5.8 3.2
Transp wind dir.E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N
Transp wind spd.18 20 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (80900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 16 mph shifting to the southeast
5 to 6 mph overnight, then shifting to the
south around 6 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph
early in the morning, then shifting to the west
10 to 15 mph early in the afternoon shifting to
the northwest around 16 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (72500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (73400
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph increasing to west 15 to
23 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
the northwest around 23 mph late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Calderone
Requested by...Kevin Berens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413595.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.berens@state.mn.us