700
FXUS61 KRLX 131637
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1237 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather today,
amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting into
Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Monday...

Tweaked dew points down a few degrees to better reflect observed
conditions and forecast mixing into substantially drier air
aloft. With such dry air aloft to overcome, any accumulating
precipitation is likely delayed until late tonight/early
Tuesday.

As of 550 AM Monday...

Made updates to temperatures as valley locations have decoupled
and are seeing the lowest temperatures compared to ridge tops.
Temperatures in the lower 30s are being reported on weather
stations across Nicholas, Pocahontas, Randolph and Webster
counties. That said, continued the SPS for frost until 830 this
morning for these locations.

Models are starting to slow the timing for the onset of rain
showers tonight by an hour or two, still starting it before
midnight though. The HRRR does through some scattered showers
across the area later this afternoon ahead of the main batch of
showers that will arrive from the SW before midnight. QPF has
also backed off quite a bit as well, but still seeing PWATs
between 1.25" and 1.50" on HiRes model data early Tuesday
morning, so will have to monitor trends closely.

As of 200 AM Monday...

Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to
our east invading the area. Most locations have already
decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air
flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered
river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and
the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots
to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands;
upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in
the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties.
An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to
be widespread enough for an advisory.

Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus
from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above
normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon.
Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around
80 in the mountains.

Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with
lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low
moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern
Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this
evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become
likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight
chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and
the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet
after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 PM Monday...

Low pressure will move over the area Wednesday, bringing continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low 500-mb heights will lead
to a cooler day for most with high temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Severe weather is not expected due to weak wind profiles
and a lack of instability. The threat of flooding will be low, but
areas that see repeated downpours may be at risk of localized
flooding.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday with northwest
flow returning. This should bring mainly dry weather Thursday with a
small chance of showers in the mountains. The return of afternoon
sunshine should help temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain cooler as
cloud cover hangs around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1236 PM Monday...

Another low pressure system and its associated warm front will
approach from the west Friday, bringing the return of showers by
Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for next weekend with upper-level low pressure
lingering over the mid-Atlantic region. We are currently forecasting
near-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with the return of
summer-like warmth by Sunday. However, confidence in the overall
forecast remains low at this time, and everything will depend
on the evolution of the upper- level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

VFR through the period, outside of patchy river valley fog this
morning. EKN is reporting IFR restrictions due to fog; CRW is
reporting VCFG but winds are picking up and not expecting major
impacts, still allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover scattered
nature of fog. Expecting return to VFR by ~13Z for any sites
experiencing restrictions.

High clouds will filter through this morning and will be SCT at
times, before becoming BKN by afternoon; SCT mid-level clouds
due to daytime heating will be likely as well. CIGs will
gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a disturbance
makes its way toward the region. VFR still expected at least
until ~06Z Tuesday.

Light to calm S`rly winds this morning will pick up at a light
to gentle breeze by afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times in
the mountains later today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC