Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Decaying MCS moving rapidly north into north central North Dakota.
Updated the POPs to follow this fast moving MCS. Otherwise
current forecast looks ok.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

With abundant instability across the region today but modest
shear thunderstorms chances will not be that large, but any
storms that form will likely grow this afternoon and early
evening. The focusing source
 will be a cold front across western
North Dakota that is forecast to move east to the North Dakota
Minnesota border by late this evening.

Currently, a decaying MCS is moving through central North Dakota
and will likely disrupt the boundary layer winds and moisture for
a good portion of the morning. Model soundings suggest a strong
cap will then be in place through the early afternoon. By late
afternoon, the daytime heating, with forecast temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s central and east, will act to destabilize the
atmosphere. The first to destabilize will be the north and expect
the thunderstorms to first start to grow there, then develop
further south into the region between the Missouri river and the
James river valleys. A slight risk for thunderstorms is in place
across the central and east with the main threat large hail and
damaging winds. By this evening the thunderstorms will be mostly
across the east central and east and after midnight the storms
will be east of the area.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s west to near 90 east. Lows
tonight look to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Friday and Saturday will be warm and dry, with high temperatures
warming to near 90 as a result of a shortwave ridge that forms
downstream of a closed upper low across the southwest CONUS. With
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 minimum relative humidity will
fall to the lower to mid 20s for Friday and Saturday. However
winds ae not expected to be over 15 mph so no significant fire
weather concerns at this time.

A more active thunderstorm pattern will be seen Sunday through
Wednesday as the upper low across the southwest CONUS migrates
into the northern plains beginning Sunday but remaining in place
through Wednesday. This will provide the instability for
thunderstorms through the period. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s Sunday cooling into the 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

At 6 am CDT a cold front extended from low pressure in southeast
Saskatchewan through western North Dakota into southwest South
Dakota. The front will move east today and will be teh focus for
scattered thunderstorms North central into the southeast. Hazards
to aviation include the scattered thunderstorms, for which the
timing and placement are too uncertain to include in the TAF
forecast at this time. VFR at all TAF locations.




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