Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...The Rest of the Month will Average Chillier than Normal and
that will Cont into Early Apr...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential: Very light wintry mix possible late

Post-mortem: please see LSR summary for svr hail and wind that
occurred mainly over N-cntrl KS. A very nice swath of 0.50-0.75"
of rain fell from I-80 down to the state line. Please post any
pics of hail/wind dmg on facebook or tweet us. TUVM.

Aloft: A longwave ridge was over the cntrl USA with trofs along
both coasts. The shortwave trof that brought the much-needed rain
to parts of the CWA was just to the E. This trof is moving thru
the ridge axis. So as it heads further downstream...the ridge will
quickly pop back up over the Plns today. will do
little to provide nice wx. The ridge will be forced E of the rgn
tonight as the W coast trof moves onshore. A shortwave trof will
be moving thru the Nrn Rckys into Canada. The tail end of this
trof (best seen at H7) will sweep across the Cntrl Plns late
tonight into Sun AM.

Surface: 1002 mb low pres was over Ern KS and will cont moving E
away from the rgn today. Very strong 1040 mb high pres was over
Ern Canada and will arc back into the Cntrl Plns thru tonight.
Meanwhile...the lee trof will intensify today with weak low pres
eventually organizing over Ern CO tonight.

Now thru sunrise: Low stratus has become widespread overnight. So

638 AM: GOES-16 fog/stratus product shows tempo clearing over
parts of Gosper/Furnas counties...but more stratus is upstream at
LBF/TIF and that will move in over the next 1-2 hrs.

Today: A chilly/cldy day for much of the area in CAA. The stratus
that formed overnight will erode over the Wrn/Srn fringes of the
CWA...but will remain locked in N and E of the Tri-Cities. Clds
will be slow to break-up over the Tri-Cities...but some breaks
should develop by late this afternoon.

Temps will remain in the 40s where skies remain cldy the longest.
Temps will basically go nowhere today from GRI N and E. The
Wrn/Srn fringes should reach the 50s with no problem.

Tonight: Increasing clds for those areas that clear out today.
The weak trof should result in enough WAA to generate a bit of
very light precip in some areas after midnight. A warm nose will
remain in the temp profile via fcst soundings which means this
precip could fall as a wintry mix of sleet and possibly a touch of
frzg rain or snow per the ptype algorithm we use.

The warm nose looks too warm to support snow...and am not sure on
the frzg rain because that is dependent on sfc temps. Nudged low
temps up into the low 30s over S-cntrl Neb (i.e. no 20s)...but
with extensive doubtful temps will drop low enough
to support frzg rain. Liked the look of the GFS 2m temps which
are just above frzg (33-35F).

Regardless...precip amts will be very light...probably only a trace
where precip does manage to reach the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential:

- Very light wintry mix possible late Sun AM.
- Maybe some rumbles of thunder SE CWA late Sun night into Mon

Aloft: SW flow Sun-Tue as the Wrn trof conts inching E and splits.
A cut-off will form over the Desert SW while the Nrn half moves in
Wed. Moderate-amplitude cyclonic WNW flow Thu-Fri.

Surface: A warm front will will form over the Srn Plns Sun...lift
N and then stall just S and E of the CWA Mon. A weak low will
eject out of CO and ride up the front Mon. High pres will briefly
move in here Tue with a weak cool front arriving Wed. Weak high
pres Thu then a stronger cold frontal passage looks probably Fri.

Temps: Another chilly day Sun and probably Mon. Unfortunately...
the EC has no direct input into our fcst database and am favoring
it Mon. That means I think we`re way too warm with our temps. Both
the GFS/GEM bring the low and warm front into the SE part of the
CWA which brings in big warmth. Am not buying it. So look for our
fcst to trend colder for Mon. Then look for Tue and Thu to be
cooler than normal...and Wed and Fri to be a little warmer than
normal. Overall...the rest of this month into early April is
looking cool and not very warm.

Precip: Some areas will see a bit of very light wintry precip Sun
AM before temps warm up a change whatever is falling to light rain
or drzl. Amts will be very minor. The fcst is then littered with
low chances for very light precip Mon-Tue. There will be some
light precip around (most likely drzl)...but overall believe we`re
a bit overdone on precip mention given my preference against the
GFS/GEM which are outputting more QPF than the EC. A bit more
spotty/light precip could occur with the cool fronts Wed night and

Thunder: wanted to remove it from the fcst late Sun night into
Mon. It`s only there because the GFS/GEM bring the warm front too
warm N in this fcstrs opinion. The EC indicates bit of elevated
instability (Showalter Index -1 to -2)...but this is due to low-
lvl moisture/stratus trapped under a strong inversion. Even the
GFS soundings indicate more of a drzl signature with very dry air
above the inversion.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Significant Wx: IFR CIGs this AM then again tonight

Today: IFR CIGs with IFR/MVFR VSBYs this AM. CIGs will lift to
MVFR by midday and possibly become SCT late at EAR. N winds 8-15 kts
gradually become E. There could be a 1-3 hr window of NNW winds 15-
25 kts with G30 kts this AM at EAR. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: MVFR CIGs will decay back to IFR. There is a slight
chance for a little -IP or -FZRA after 08Z but there is a bit of
uncertainty on sfc temps. E winds 8-15 kts becoming SE.
Confidence: Medium




LONG TERM...Kelley
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