Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 180937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
237 AM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Clear skies and seasonable temperatures will be the rule over the
next couple of days. Then attention turns to the approaching wet
system coming in late Tuesday. This system will bring high Sierra
snow and widespread rainfall to the region through late week.


A few light showers left across the south valley this morning,
though not expecting much out of them. Otherwise, skies are
clearing across the region as the system that has impacted the
region over the several days exits across the Great Basin.

This will allow for shortwave ridging to slide into the region
over the next couple of days. Expect to see seasonable
temperatures return briefly Monday before the next system moves in

That system is currently dropping south across the eastern
Pacific. It will stay off shore about 800 miles or so through
midweek before opening up and phasing into the mean flow.

Before that happens, it will tap into some subtropical moisture
and point that moisture fetch in our general direction. Confidence
continues to increase that significant PWatts will be brought in
with this moisture fetch. Generally, PWatt values will range from
0.75-1" Tuesday/Wednesday, which is two to three standard
deviations above climatology for this time of year.

At this time, main trajectory of the moisture plume with this
atmospheric river will be across SoCal, with Kern County under its
influence. That doesn`t mean the rest of the area isn`t going to
see much, rather initially Kern County will get the bulk of the
precipitation and have high snow levels.

The whole area is expected to get some precipitation by the end of
the week. In fact, as the event unfolds the heavier precipitation
should work its way northward as the system is lifted into the
mean flow.

This does look to be more of a rain event with snow levels
generally above 7kft, though above that level there should be a
good amount of snowfall Wednesday/Thursday.


Last few showers moving south across the south San Joaquin Valley,
with clearing skies elsewhere. BR possible across the San Joaquin
Valley around daybreak, though it shouldn`t last too long.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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