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000
FXUS65 KVEF 261038
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
338 AM PDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A strong weather system will move across the region
today bringing high elevation snow and scattered showers to areas
north of Interstate 40 through Monday. Cool and unsettled weather
will persist through Memorial Day before temperatures gradually
warm through next week. Afternoon shower and storm chances will
remain for areas north and west of Las Vegas through much of next
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.

A potent upper low, currently spinning over Eureka CA, is making its
way southward along the NorCal coast this morning. This system will
spread showery precip across the area today as it pivots inland and
across central California and into southern Nevada. High-elevation
snow will begin to spill over the Sierra onto the eastern slopes
around sunrise and continue through much of the day. Around 4-8" of
new snow is expected above 7000`, and isolated higher amounts above
9000`. Forecast snow amounts support the currently posted Winter
Weather Advisory in the east Sierra and and the White Mountains.
Scattered shower activity will spread eastward through the morning
and afternoon, with precip chances mainly north of I-40. As such,
high-elevation snow  in the Spring Mountains will begin late this
afternoon; accumulation should stay above 7000`, with snow amounts
Trace-3" at 7,000` and 3-8" above 8500`. Although snow amounts are
borderline, the Winter Weather Advisory will be kept due to the late
season nature of this event and increased impact potential for those
enjoying holiday recreation. The closed low will shift east and move
directly over southern Nevada tonight. As it does, the cold
temperatures aloft and divergent flow along in the northeast
quadrant of the low will support continue shower activity, possibly
a rumble of thunder, over Lincoln and Mohave counties, where total
rain amounts could reach to 0.5", possibly an inch over the terrain.

In addition to the precip, strong winds will develop today,
especially across the western zones. Gusts between 40-50 MPH are
possible from Daggett to Tonopah, so have expanded the Wind Advisory
to include Esmeralda and southern Nye. Elsewhere, gusts are expected
to be in the 30-40 MPH neighborhood. That said, strong south winds
are expected up the Colorado River Valley. Hoisted a Lake Wind
Advisory to highlight the potential for hazardous boating conditions
on area lakes. Winds should begin to trend down after sunset this
evening, leveling off early Monday.

The closed low will exit to the east Monday morning/afternoon.
Anomalously cool temperatures and and lingering showers and
thunderstorms will left in its wake. Best chances for showers/t-
storms will be northern Mohave and eastern Lincoln counties through
Monday evening. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to be drying out.
Broad, mean trough will remain parked over the region Tuesday. As
moisture wrapped around from the departed upper low will remain
across the central Great Basin, fueling afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain in Nye, Lincoln, and Clark
counties.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Broad cyclonic flow aloft is expected to continue over the region
through the extended period. Aforementioned lingering moisture
across the Great Basin will lead to chances for afternoon showers/t-
storms through Thursday. A few weak shortwaves moving through the
flow will result in a few breezy afternoons, especially Wednesday.

Though mean troughing will continue, upper level heights will begin
to rise through the period resulting in gradually increasing
temperatures; temperatures next weekend are expected to reach normal
readings.
&&


.AVIATION...For McCarran...South winds around 8-12 kts are expected
to remain in place through the early morning. Winds are then
forecast to increase to around 12-20 kts after 18z and gradually
shift more to the southwest during the afternoon. Turbulence and low-
level wind shear hazards increase while increasing clouds today will
bring shower chances and an increasing icing threat. CIGs tonight
may fall to the 5-7 Kft range and showers are likely in the
corridors and in the vicinity of the Las Vegas Valley, but low
confidence at this time in showers at the airport.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... South to southwest winds across the region will remain
at 12 kts or less this morning and gradually increase by late
morning and afternoon. Wind speeds over most areas will 15-25 kts
with some locations over western San Bernardino, Inyo, southern Nye,
and Esmeralda counties will see winds gusting to around 35-40 kts
this afternoon and early evening. Increasing clouds are expected
today, with ceiling generally remaining IFR. Shower activity will
work from west to east, beginning in the morning in the west, making
it to northwest Arizona by late Thu evening. Expect increasing
turbulence and low-level wind shear hazards tonight, with icing
expected around the 10-12 Kft level this afternoon and evening.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boothe
AVIATION.....Gorelow

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