Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 301856
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1156 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build through midweek allowing
temperatures to climb several degrees each day. A breezy/windy
day is expected Wednesday ahead of a cold front passage Thursday
morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected heading into
the weekend ahead of a more active pattern expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the weekend.
Forecast is overall on track through the rest of today through
Wednesday morning. Still expecting heights to build and result in
an increase in temperatures into the low 80s for the LV Valley and
as high as 90 for Death Valley Wednesday. Wednesday looks like it
will be the warmest day of the next several however as a cold
front now looks more likely to push through the region and cool
things down for the late week and into the weekend.

Ahead of the cold front passage currently progged for Thursday
morning, pre-frontal winds look to increase substantially
Wednesday afternoon due to a weak surface low developing over
southeastern Nevada. This should result in a typical set up of
tightening the pressure gradient across southeastern California,
the Colorado River Valley and possibly NW Arizona. Opted to nudge
up the NBM winds with the CONSMOS which were more in line with
SREF/EC ensemble means. Gusts up to 50 mph look possible as a
result for parts of San Bern including Barstow. This would likely
mean the need for a Wind Advisory for Wednesday afternoon and
overnight for at least San Bern if not also southern Clark and
parts of Mohave. The front moves through Thursday cooling the
region down by about 6-10 degrees with north breezes through the
day.

Moving into the Friday-Sunday time frame, the prospects of a
stout, persistent ridge remaining continue to look worse as there
is a clear trend now towards a much more active pattern heading
into next week. The global 12Z deterministic suite provides very
little confidence still as there are considerable differences in
evolution through the weekend however all produce variation of a
strong low pressure system originating from Alaska. The Day 6
(Sunday) ensembles all show troughing of some magnitude but would
hint that the closed low solutions provided by the 12Z operational
runs of the EC and Canadian don`t have much intra-member support.
This would suggest to stay skeptical of the higher PoP/QPF
suggested in either and thus decided not to modify/increase them
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Minimal aviation impacts expected
through Wednesday. VFR skies with light afternoon easterly
favoring of the winds are expected. Light southwest winds can be
expected overnight.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Very little aviation impacts expected today. Skies
are clear throughout the region with light and variable winds at
all TAF sites. Typical diurnal patterns are expected through
Tuesday.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...TB3

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