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000
FXUS65 KVEF 202021
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
121 PM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will return to more typical late June
averages during the workweek. Dry and gusty afternoons are expected
Monday and Tuesday. There is a slight chance of shower and
thunderstorm activity in southeast Nevada, northwest Arizona and
eastern California Wednesday, possibly lingering into Thursday.
Another heatwave looks possible next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A drier west-southwest flow associated with trough
along the west coast will dominate our weather regime into Monday.
Elevated fire threat the primary concern. Was on the fence yesterday
for potential headline. But based on the 12Z HREF Red Flag
probabilities being met as well as low level winds depicted on
forecast soundings across southern Nevada am going to issue a Red
Flag Warning for zones that cover parts of Nye and Clark Counties.

Models continue to advertise mid-level moisture from the remnants of
Dolores getting caught in the flow and beginning to increase across
our skies as early as Tuesday. Anticipate greater widespread winds
on Tuesday so am issuing a Red Flag Warning for all of southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona Tuesday. Along with the mid-level
moisture increase there is a slight rise in surface RH values Tuesday
but values should easily fall below 15 percent.

As moisture continues to stream northward Tuesday night/Wednesday
NBM PoPs have spread further west to now include parts of southern
Nevada and eastern California, in addition to what was already in
northwest Arizona from earlier runs. Models still depict enhancing
jet streak over that same area for added dynamics. Time height
sections indicate most of this moisture will remain at or above 700
hPa so initial concern would be dry lightning potential. Forecast
sounding for Kingman in northwest Arizona does show surface
dewpoints increasing which would support that storms could
transition from dry to wet during the day Wednesday. This moisture
looks to linger across part of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona
into Thursday.

Broad area of high pressure looks to establish itself across not
only the Desert Southwest, but ridge axis extends well north into
western Canada. A weak trough will still be meandering around the
northern California/Pac NW coast. NBM has temperatures for Las Vegas
rising back to the 110 degree range next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds and low RH will encompass the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert Monday and Tuesday. Highest
potential for critical fire weather conditions looks to be centered
over parts of Nye and Clark Counties Monday. Widespread winds
Tuesday look to create critical conditions across all of southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona. Signs of increasing mid-level moisture
should be seen as early as Tuesday with moisture continuing to
stream north into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will
produce isolated showers and thunderstorms. Dry lightning will be a
concern initially but looks like storms may transition wetter by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...Listed below are a few climate locations showing both the
record high maximum and high minimum temperature for each location and
the year the record was last set for Sunday.

LOCATION             SUN-JUNE 20
                    Record(year)

Las Vegas NV          117(2017)**
Bishop CA             108(2015)
Barstow CA            115(2017)
Needles CA            125(2017)**
Kingman AZ            113(2107)**
Desert Rock NV        111(2017)
Death Valley CA       127(2017)
Laughlin NV*          120(2017)
Lake Havasu City AZ*  124(2008)

* Not climate sites, but state temperature record holders.
** All time record highs

LOCATION             SUN-JUNE 20
(HIGH MIN)           Record(year)

Las Vegas NV           88(2017)
Bishop CA              62(1961)
Barstow CA             80(2017)
Needles CA             89(2017)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Breezy southwest winds are expected this
afternoon. Gusts may start at the 20-25KT range but will increase
after 00Z to 25KT+. Winds will veer more south-southwest by
midnight, with gusts likely ending then but a slight chance
intermittent gusts to around 20KT persist through the night.
Elevated winds 10-15KT will continue through Monday morning before
another, slightly stronger, push of southwest winds returns Monday
afternoon. Expecting winds to increase out of the southwest between
18Z-20Z, with gusts to 30KT possible through Monday afternoon and
evening. Clear skies are expected  through the period. Monday will
mark the beginning of a gradual cool down, with highs tomorrow
dropping back to 105-110 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy southwest to west winds are expected through the
evening region-wide with gusts 20-30KT expected. By 03-04Z, winds
will decrease across most valleys, with breezy southwest winds
remaining elevated across higher elevations overnight. Elevated
winds will also continue at DAG overnight, though gusts may drop off
late tonight or early Monday morning. A repeat in the weather
pattern is expected on Monday, with slightly higher winds possible
across California and southern Nevada compared to today. Mostly
clear skies expected through Monday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Pierce
AVIATION...Nickerson

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