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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230950
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 AM PDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Brief warm up in temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday before another low pressure system brings breezy winds,
storm chances, and cooler temperatures for the holiday weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

The low pressure system that was over our area the last few days has
now shifted to the northeast with the center of the low now near the
north-central Nevada-Utah boarder. Southwest flow will dominate
through Thursday allowing for temperatures to warm up a few degrees
each day. Lingering moisture across the Sierra Mountains will allow
for a slight chance of a few isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern Sierra Mountains each afternoon.
Breezy southerly winds are expected each afternoon with stronger
winds Thursday (especially across San Bernardino, Inyo, Esmeralda,
and Nye counties) as an upper low digs into the California coast.
Winds look sub advisory level with only isolated spots reaching
low end criteria.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION: By Friday morning, an upper level low will be
situated off the CA coast, somewhere in the vicinity of the Bay
Area. This is further south than noted in the guidance from 24 hours
ago. The low will push east across central CA and southern NV on
Friday and Saturday before stalling and wobbling around the NV/UT
border on Sunday and Monday. The low will finally eject northeast
Tuesday and Wednesday, being replaced by increasing higher pressure.

WIND: Friday and Saturday will see the strongest winds across the
region. At this point, it still appears that most areas will see
gusts in the 25-35 MPH range both days, with some favored areas
across the western Mojave Desert seeing gusts to near 40 MPH. We
will have to continue to monitor the wind situation, especially over
area lakes which should see a considerable increase in traffic
during the holiday weekend. Winds will decrease Sunday and Monday
and remain below any critical thresholds.

PRECIPITATION: For Friday, precipitation chances remain limited to
the Sierra/White Mountains, and Esmeralda county with the low still
off to the west. Chances will increase and expand east across
central NV on Saturday as the low moves inland. Main change today
was pushing PoPs a bit further south (as far south as the Spring
Mountains) compared to the previous forecast to account for the
southward shift in the low track. With the low center hanging nearby
on Sunday and Monday so too do the precipitation chances across
central NV. For now have left PoPs mainly over the mountains of the
Southern Great Basin. Drier conditions appear likely for at least
a day or two by the middle of next week.

TEMPERATURES: Temperatures will fall to below normal with the
arrival of the low pressure system Friday and Saturday, then
gradually rise to several degrees above normal through the middle of
next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds will continue
through the early morning before southeasterly winds push through
the KLAS terminal by 19-21Z today. Sustained southeasterly winds
of 10 to 12 kts with gusts up to 18 kts will continue through
01-03Z this evening. Thereafter, winds will shift to the south-
southwest with speeds less than 11 kts and occasional gusts up to
15 kts before decreasing to less than 7 kts by 10-12Z tomorrow.
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Typical diurnal winds will continue across the region
before a push of south to southeasterly winds reach most
terminals this afternoon. Southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kts with
gusts up to 20 to 25 kts will be possible through the afternoon.
Typical diurnal drainage winds are expected tonight. VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Kryston
Long Term...Wolcott

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