Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 010924
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
224 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure queued to form off of the
California Coast along with a growing ridge of high pressure from
the South Plains will tango this week. This clash will initially
result in above average temperatures, with afternoon highs 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal normals. Going into the weekend, gusty
conditions and an isolated sprinkle possible, though confidence
remains low at this time.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Current synoptic setup indicates a wave stretching down the West
Coast and a strong ridge setting up over the Central U.S. The wave
will split today into both a low off the SoCal Coast and a
progressive shortwave moving across the Great Basin. The SoCal low
will linger for many days in that region - closing off today.

Continued breezy, southerly winds today expected with gusts in the
20 to 30 range can be expected for most. Temperatures will climb a
couple of degrees each day with high clouds continuing to stream
across the region through Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be
possible across the Sierra and White Mtns Tuesday afternoon, as a
weak impulse ejects north of the closed low. The central U.S. ridge
will build westward going into the middle of the week. The westward
build of this ridge will not only result in much warmer temperatures
than originally forecast, but it will also enhance southerly flow
into the area. Resulting impacts: (1) Afternoon high temperatures
will range from 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal normals through the
week. (2) A pull of moisture will move northward. Corresponding
chances for showers and storms are currently confined to Inyo and
Esmeralda counties on Wednesday where better upper level support
remains present.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

The aforementioned closed low continues to spin off the SoCal Coast
on Thursday with uncertainty still present in the forecast Friday
onward. Ensemble guidance continues to slow the movement of the low
onshore late this week with the current trends not moving the center
of the low over our area until early Saturday. This will allow
temperatures to have a longer warming period and current trends for
have high temps near 10 degrees above normal and elevated heat risk
to match, which may warrant heat products for late-week if this
delay continues.

As the low slowly nudges toward the coast on Friday, upstream
chances for showers and storms will be possible across areas north
of Las Vegas, in addition to the AZ Strip. As mentioned in
previous discussions, wouldn`t be surprised in chances for precip
increasing across the higher elevations farther south than this.
Chances for the Las Vegas Valley to see precip still look very
slim for Friday, but this could change in the coming days. The
slower track will allow precip chances to linger through Friday
night into Saturday across the southern Great Basin as the low
transitions overhead - dissolving into an open wave in the
process. Winds will also pick up as a result, with gust speeds
generally between 20 and 30 mph FRI/SAT afternoons. A larger low
over the PacNorthwest will absorb the previous low and dig
southward over the region through the weekend. Temps will drop for
the weekend back to near normal values. &&


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds after
sunrise can be expected much of the morning then brief southeast
components may occur ahead of southerly winds gusting 15-20 knots
from early afternoon through early evening. Expect passing mid to
high clouds through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds generally less than 10 knots this morning will
increase from the south-southwest late this morning through early
this evening with gusts 15-25 knots across the region. Expect
passing mid to high clouds through the forecast period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Varian
SHORT TERM...Guillet/Varian
LONG TERM...Guillet
AVIATION...Adair

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