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000
FXUS65 KVEF 070521
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
921 PM PST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...After a weekend with well above normal temperatures and
mostly sunny skies, another storm system will move into the region
early next week bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and
precipitation chances to much of the region.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...
No major changes in the near term this evening other than minor
temperature edits based off bias corrected blends. Re-ran hourly
trends as well. Forecast seems to be in good shape from earlier
today.

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday.

An increasing southwest flow aided by a weak trough that was pushing
through the NW states has helped increased temperatures across much
of the region to the warmest readings so far this year. Surface obs
are showing mainly breezy conditions across the region, but a few
sites in Lincoln County have been gusting between 35-40 mph. These
winds will gradually diminish after sunset with generally light
winds overnight. Breezy south winds are expected again Sunday
leading to another rather warm day across the region. Although
temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal, we will still
remain a few degrees from record territory.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

A deepening trough off the Pacific NW coast will increase the
southwest flow Monday and Tuesday bringing breezy to locally windy
conditions to much of the area. At this time, it does not look like
winds will reach widespread advisory levels, but locally windy areas
such as western San Bernardino County could see gusts over 40 mph
Tuesday afternoon. Although we may see temperatures drop a couple of
degrees as heights begin to fall, temperatures are still expected to
remain several degrees above normal.

There is still good agreement in the ensembles with regards to the
timing and depth of the low as it reaches the central CA coast.
However, the ensembles begin to differ once it reaches southern CA.
The low is forecast to weaken as it comes onshore, but the models
show some timing differences on how fast this low tracks east. As
for precipitation, there isn`t really a lot associated with the low
itself. The models have been consistent in showing that there is no
significant moisture tap and precipitation totals are expected to
remain fairly light. The one area that may see some higher totals
will be the Sierra and potentially into the Owens Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday. With the current track of the low, it does
look like snow amounts in the eastern Sierra could total between 3-6
inches. How far snow levels drop is still in question, but it`s
possible that they could drop to around 4000 feet by Wednesday
morning. It`s possible Bishop could see some light snow
accumulations, but a lot also depends on the final track of the low.
Across the remainder of the CWA, rain and mountain snow chances will
also depend of the track of the low, but while we are seeing a least
a chance of precipitation for almost the entire area by mid week,
those totals are expected to remain light. Overall, it looks like
impacts from this system look to be fairly minimal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Wind gust have subsided this evening for
the McCarran terminal. Southwest winds are expected to prevail
throughout the rest of the overnight hours with light and variable
winds through the AM hours tomorrow. An increase of south-southeast
winds tomorrow afternoon may lead to some configuration challenges
but this should be relatively short lived as winds eventually shift
back to the southwest tomorrow night. Increasing clouds expected
through the next 30 hours as well, staying aoa 15kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally minimal impacts expected overnight tonight.
Winds at KDAG are the strongest this evening but those are expected
to gradually decrease to light by daybreak. Increasing clouds
expected through the next 24 hours aoa 15kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Outler

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