502
FXUS65 KVEF 122228
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
228 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds and scattered, light showers continue through Friday.

* A more potent system arrives next week, bringing widespread
  precipitation, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Isolated showers this afternoon across the southern Great Basin and
northeastern Mohave County as an upper-level low lingers. Cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder with this activity (~25%).
Tonight, this low begins to phase with another low coming off the
Pacific Ocean, wrapping up into a stronger trough over Arizona. This
brings 30-50% PoPs to eastern Mohave County on Friday while also
spurring northerly breezes on the backside. Dry conditions on
Saturday as winds turn southerly in advance of our next
system. Temperatures stay slightly above normal for mid-February.

Southwest winds begin to pick up on Sunday as next week`s system
draws closer. There is a ~30% chance of impactful winds on Sunday
across our northwestern areas, but it looks like precipitation will
hold off until Monday. Models are slowly coming into better
agreement in the middle of the week. Seems like the first wave
arrives Monday into Monday night, followed by another round Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with potentially another round on Thursday.
The first round brings widespread precipitation with snow levels
ranging from 5500 feet in the NW to 7000 feet in the SE. By the time
the 2nd wave arrives, snow levels should drop to 4000-5500 feet.
We`ll see if snow levels continue to trend upward with the lead
wave, but regardless, winter impacts are likely (70%) above 7000
feet, and possible between 4000-7000 feet (20-60%). Below the
snowline, rainfall is expected to be light-to-moderate, but
localized minor flooding is possible (20%) in places like Las Vegas,
the Colorado River Valley, and Morongo Valley. In addition to the
precipitation, gusty southwest winds are anticipated across the
region with 60-80% chances for 40+ mph gusts in most locations on
Monday and Tuesday. Winds may subside a bit on Wednesday as these
probabilities drop to 30-50% in most areas. The unsettled pattern
continues through the end of the week as ensemble guidance keeps
troughing over the Western US.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Variable
winds will favor a west to southwest direction overnight, with
speeds remaining less than 10 knots. Northerly winds pick up
tomorrow morning. Speeds should mostly remain 8 knots or less,
but there is a 40 percent chance of winds over 10 knots between 16
and 20Z. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds persist through today and
tonight, decreasing in coverage tomorrow afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Northerly winds develop
across the Las Vegas Valley, Owens Valley, and Colorado River Valley
through tonight and tomorrow morning. Speeds increase to over 10
knots, including gusts of 15 to 20 knots at KIFP. SCT to BKN mid and
high level clouds pass through the area with bases between 12 and
15kft, except for the Colorado River Valley where FEW clouds as low
as 8kft are possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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