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000
FXUS65 KVEF 242141
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 PM PDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected
through early week before a weather system pushing into the West
brings widespread gusty winds and renewed shower chances to our
Sierra and portions of the southern Great Basin. Temperatures
through Wednesday will trend above normal before cooling to near
seasonal normals by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night.

Ridge over the area this afternoon will start to shift east on
Monday with an increasing southwest flow aloft. There will be some
increase in surface winds Monday afternoon, but most areas will
generally see winds 10-20 mph. The exception will be across portions
of Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye Counties where winds 20-30 mph
will be likely. Little change in temperatures will be seen Monday,
but as the southwest flow increases by Tuesday and provides better
mixing we should see temperatures jump a few more degrees. Most
areas will also see increased winds with breezy to windy conditions
over most areas. Hires models are also hinting at some potential
downslope winds over the lee of the Sierra with winds between 40-50
mph, but at this time most of the strongest winds will remain at mid
slopes and higher and do not think an advisory will be needed.

As the next Pacific trough begins to move onshore preciptiation is
expected to spread into the central Sierra Tuesday night and then
into the southern Sierra by Wednesday morning. It does not look like
we will start to see any spillover into the Owens Valley and points
east before daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

The incoming Pacific trough will move into the Western U.S. on
Wednesday increasing the intensity of precipitation over the
southern Sierra and spreading scattered showers and higher elevation
snow across the southern Great Basin. Precip accumulations look be
light outside of the Sierra where any snow accumulations greater
than a couple of inches are confined to elevations above 8000 feet.
A few isolated lightning strikes look to be possible Wednesday
afternoon when a slight increase in instability develops across
northern Inyo and Esmeralda counties. The more noticable impact for
most will be increasing southwest winds with this system. Speeds
approaching 25-35 mph gusting 35-45 mph will be possible primarily
along, north, and west of the I-15 corridor. Downslope potential in
the lee of the Sierra does not look quite as impressive as it had
the last couple of days and we will continue to monitor for any
changes. It does look like the higher elevations will be quite windy
with gusts over 60 mph possible in the Sierra and Spring Mtns. A sfc
cold front will pass through the area on Wednesday dropping down
temps to slightly below normal for the remainder of the work week.

Mid-level troughing remains situated over the area Thursday
supporting scattered shower activity over the southern Great Basin
for another day. Elsewhere, dry conditions persist with a
significant decrease in winds. Models begin to diverge Friday and
Saturday with the latest GFS digging the aforementioned trough
southward towards the Four Corners region and the ECMWF holding on
to a weak wave to our north. Either way, both suggest dry conditions
for most and temps coming back up closer to seasonal normals for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds will remain light and variable this
afternoon under mostly clear skies. Tonight, drainage winds will
take over with speeds remaining at 8 knots or less. Light winds
continue on Monday, favoring the easterly direction.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light, diurnal winds and mostly clear skies will
continue through Monday morning. Winds will favor the southerly
direction Monday afternoon with speeds of 10-15 knots possible north
of Interstate 15.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM....Guillet

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