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000
FXUS65 KVEF 202216
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
216 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Cloud cover will linger through Tuesday with a light
showers or sprinkles possible tonight through Tuesday. Best chances
will be across the Sierra, San Bernardino County and Mohave County.
Otherwise, dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected
into the weekend. Could be looking at another system bringing a bout
of unsettled weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday Night.

Extensive cloud cover continues to stream inland over the Southwest
States ahead of weak disturbance southwest of San Diego. Regional
radars detecting lots of virga so far, although stronger returns
noted from near Twentynine Palms south into northern Baja Peninsula
could be producing light rain or sprinkles.

The weak disturbance is progged to move inland over southern
California late tonight and western Arizona Tuesday morning.
Forecast soundings at Kingman, Needles and Twentynine Palms expected
to saturate from the top-down to between 5-10 kft while a wedge of
dry air remains near the surface. Further north, Las Vegas expected
to saturate down to between 7-10 kft, with dry air below.

Small finger of higher IVT values progged to skirt along the
southern San Bernardino County and Mohave County border late tonight
and Tuesday. Best chance of light rain/sprinkles will be along and
south of I-40 in San Bernardino County and all of Mohave County late
tonight and Tuesday. Lack of forcing will translate to total QPF of
less than 0.10" for the event. Also, can not rule out sprinkles or
flurries for the southern Sierra, Spring Mtns, Sheep Range and
higher terrain of Lincoln County.

With origination of air mass from the subtropics, high temperatures
will be stay comfortable, while additional cloud cover helps keep
the overnights from getting chilly.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

A persistence forecast takes hold starting midweek and lasting into
the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Southwest.
Light north winds and mostly sunny skies (aside from occasional
bouts of high clouds) can be expected with daily temperature
variations remaining fairly minimal and several degrees above late
January normals. Exception will be down the Colorado River Valley
where north winds may be a bit gustier as winds funnel down the
river valley. Could be looking at another system bringing a bout of
unsettled weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds generally
favoring diurnal patterns through Tuesday. Clouds may scatter out
briefly this evening before they redevelop in the mid levels
overnight. CIGS between 6-10 Kft could develop by 10Z Tuesday and
continue through noon before scattering out. Increasing high clouds
aoa 20k feet Tuesday afternoon. A freezing level around 10 Kft MSL,
with icing potential up to 20 Kft this afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...North breezes will continue to decrease along the
Colorado River Valley today with lighter north winds on Tuesday.
South winds in the Owens Valley will continue through much of the
evening before becoming light northerly. Generally light and
variable winds elsewhere. Considerable cloudiness is expected across
the region with CIGS generally 6-10 Kft developing overnight.
Freezing level around 10 Kft could result in some icing concerns
through 20 Kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Pierce/Outler
AVIATION...Salmen

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