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170
FXUS65 KVEF 260951
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
251 AM PDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring shower and
thunderstorm activity today and Sunday to areas across the
southern Great Basin as well as higher elevations of Clark County.
Dry conditions, warming temperatures and gusty winds are expected
next week. &&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

The aforementioned low currently digging into SoCal will shift
eastward over the Great Basin region today. A few pieces of energy
will rotate through the region today and tomorrow bringing enough
forcing and moisture for areas mainly north and west of Las Vegas
to see storms. Best chances to see some isolated to scattered
storms today will be across the Sierra, White Mountains, Spring
Mountains, Sheep Range, as well as Nye, Esmeralda, and Lincoln
counties. Otherwise expect cooler temperatures and breezy to
occasionally gusty winds.

Models are in better agreement regarding the placement of the
moisture and instability on Sunday. As such, confidence has
increased on the POP forecast with best chances of seeing a few
isolated to scattered storms across the Sierra, Spring Mountains
and Sheep Range, as well as Lincoln, and Nye counties. By Monday
the low will begin to lift off to the northeast as a trough over
the Pacific NW sweeps it out of the Great Basin region. This will
limit storm chances to northeastern Lincoln county on Monday.
Temperatures will begin to warm up a few degrees Sunday and Monday
with light winds.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Tuesday will be a transition day between before the next trough
begins to impact the region. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
next week will likely be the warmest of the period. There is some
disagreement on which of those days will be the warmest due to
slight difference in the timing of the next trough and it`s
associated mixing. In any case, temperatures in Las Vegas will
approach 100, 105 along the Colorado River Valley, and 110 in Death
Valley both Tuesday and Wednesday. The mixing will occur as a result
of increased southwest flow ahead of a trough that will move across
the region Thursday and Friday. Guidance is all over the map on the
strength/depth of that feature. In any case, breezy and cooler
conditions as well as perhaps a few mountain showers will be the
main impacts when the trough moves through. Temperature recovery
would follow in the wake of the system during the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Breezy to occasionally gusty south
winds will continue through the early morning hours. A brief drop
off in wind speeds is possible between 14-18Z this morning,
before breezy to gusty west to southwest winds return by 19-20Z
this afternoon. West to southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts should continue through much of the evening. There is a
chance of a north wind pushing through the valley this afternoon
up to 10 kts but confidence is low at this point. Slight chance of
thunderstorms developing on the surrounding mountains both today
and tomorrow afternoons. FEW aoa 12 kft developing later today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy southerly winds will decrease through the
early morning at all sites outside of KBIH. Breezy north winds
behind a cold front will continue at KBIH through today with
gusts 20 to 30 kts. Elsewhere, breezy to gusty west to southwest
winds should dominate all other taf sites through today. SCT-BKN
aoa 10 kft at KBIH with only FEW aoa 12 kft elsewhere. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Kryston
Long Term...Wolcott

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