207
FXUS65 KVEF 100655
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1155 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  The warming trend peaks on Thursday when the Extreme Heat
   Warning goes into effect. Temperatures cool into and through
   the weekend.

*  Spotty storm activity will be possible in the Sierra Nevada and
   higher elevations of eastern San Bernardino today.

*  Breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts expected across the
   region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Early Next Week

Another stretch of above normal temperatures continues this week
across the Mohave Desert and lower Great Basin as a ridge of high
pressure shifts eastward. A hot airmass is currently in place across
the region as 850mb temperature anomalies are already above normal
for this time of year, supporting highs at or above 100 in desert
valleys and 110s in the CRV and around Death Valley. Latest
observations already show the 594+dm ridge building over the desert
southwest today, reaching peak intensity by Thursday, contributing
to the warmer each day across the region. Increasing subsidence
under the 595+dm ridge in addition to the hot airmass will promote
well above normal to near record high temperatures by Thursday in
desert valleys; therefore an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
the daytime hours on Thursday for Death Valley, the Las Vegas
Valley, Pahrump Valley, Moapa Valley, Colorado River Valley,
southern Mohave County, and southeastern San Bernardino County.
Lingering monsoonal moisture will also keep nighttime lows elevated
as well with lows in the 80s likely in desert valleys, preventing
much relief, if any, from the hot daytime temperatures. Still
expecting a slow downward trend in temperatures into the weekend as
a trough pushes into the west coast, bringing slightly cooler
temperatures to the region...yet still above normal for this time of
year. Expect temperatures to drop a few degrees Friday along with an
additional drop around 2 to 4 degrees Saturday with temperatures
close to normal by early next week.

As mentioned above, lingering monsoonal moisture still remains in
place for portions of the region. Generally dry conditions are
expected through the week, but weak moisture return northward on the
west side of the ridge tomorrow should allow for isolated
thunderstorms once again in the Sierra and terrain of the southern
Great Basin. Not expecting anything widespread. Inyo County, from
Independence to Bishop and surrounding locations have thew best
chance at a shower or storm tomorrow.

The aforementioned trough pushing into the western US will bring
cooler temperatures but also increasing southwest winds to the
region. Guidance continues to show a 40 kt mid level jet streak
developing overhead Saturday into Sunday. Mixing into this area of
stronger winds may result in widespread gusts mixing down to the
surface 30-35 mph. There could also be some gusty southerly winds
impacting Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu this weekend, which could
impact boaters with winds and waves. Looking at today`s Ensembles
and NBM probs, all guidance has trended downward with the threat for
winds gusts 40mph or greater for Saturday and Sunday. While it does
still look breezy with frequent gusts over 30mph, today`s trends
lower confidence in frequent gusts over 40 mph and the possibility
of needing a wind advisory. Still will monitor forecast trends
through the week and will update the forecast accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will generally follow typical daily directional patterns through
the forecast period, with some variability expected overnight.
Wind speeds are expected to remain under 10KT until mid-afternoon
when winds veer to the southwest. Wind speeds are then expected to
increase to 10-15KT, persisting though late evening before
diminishing. VFR conditions will prevail with passing bands of
clouds with bases at or above 15kft. Temperatures will exceed 100
degrees between 19Z-03Z, reaching a high of 106 degrees Thursday
afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally
follow typical daily directional patterns over the next 24 hours,
with speeds around 10KT or less. Exceptions include portions of
the Colorado River Valley in the vicinity of KIFP where elevated
down-valley northerly winds are expected mid-morning through mid-
afternoon, as well as across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where
winds remain westerly with speeds around 8-12KT, increasing and
becoming gusty late afternoon onward with gusts to 25KT possible.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the Sierra during the afternoon, with potential for erratic gusty
outflow winds to impact KBIH and portions of the Owens Valley late
afternoon through sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail,
with passing bands of clouds with bases at or above 12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moore
AVIATION...Phillipson

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