457
FXUS65 KABQ 162336
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The combination of a disturbance and a backdoor front is bringing
a round of showers and storms to much of NM this afternoon, but
the focus will shift to eastern NM through the evening hours
before activity diminishes overnight. A few strong to severe
storms can not be ruled out across the east central and southeast
plains. A warming and drying trend is forecast from Friday
through early next week, with increasing westerly winds on Sunday
and Monday. Roswell is forecast to hit 100 for the first time this
year on Sunday, then repeat on Monday. Albuquerque will flirt
with the first 90 degree day of the year this weekend, most likely
on Sunday. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will then continue
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The upper low is currently moving east toward the South Central
Mountains, per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with and
2nd circulation moving south over southern AZ. The secondary
circulation will slow the eastward progress of the upper low over
southern NM and may allow convection to linger across
central/eastern NM longer than currently forecast overnight. A few
severe storms are still possible near the TX border across the
east central plains through this afternoon, with both large hail
and damaging winds possible. Moderate forecast confidence on the
development of low stratus/fog early Friday morning, but low
forecast confidence on placement. Given the soaking rains in
central NM, the middle/lower RGV and the Estancia Valley seem like
solid bets, so added a mention of patchy fog there. The upper low
will exit to the east tonight and be replaced by a trailing ridge
on Friday, which will begin a warming/drying trend. Friday will be
much warmer and generally within a few degrees of normal for mid
May. Lingering moisture will be sufficient, when combined with
daytime heating, to produce some late day buildups along the
central mountain chain. Slightly more well-developed convection is
possible in/near the South Central Mountains Friday afternoon and
may move off to the southeast across southeast Lincoln and
southwest Chaves Counties, but very little measurable rain is
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The warming/drying trend continues through the weekend and into
early next week, with temperatures rising above normal areawide
Saturday. Roswell is still forecast to reach 100 degrees for the
first time this year over the weekend, most likely not until
Sunday with a repeat on Monday. Albuquerque isn`t forecast to hit
90 degrees for the first time this year in this forecast cycle,
but will come close on Sunday when 89 is forecast at the Sunport.
Winds will be on the uptrend Sun/Mon with increasing W-SW flow
aloft ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Monday will be
the windiest day with potential to reach advisory threshold. Warm,
dry and breezy conditions will persist Tue/Wed, followed by
increasing winds again by Thursday as an upstream trough moves
from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain over much of
the forecast area as an upper low tracks eastward over
southeastern NM this hour. This activity will steadily trend down
in coverage over the next few hours to 03Z, sticking around the
longest over east-central and southeastern NM. There is enough
low-level moisture to allow for some valley fog development
overnight into Friday morning. This was mentioned before and kept
in the KABQ and KAEG TAFs, and added to the KLVS TAF. Light and
variable winds remain the rule through Friday morning before
prevailing southwesterly to westerly winds gusting 10 to 20 kts
pick up in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Good chances for wetting storms will continue through this evening
across eastern and portions of central NM as an upper level low
continues to move east across the area. A warming/drying trend is
forecast to begin Friday under the influence of an upper level
ridge. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will gradually spread
east over the area through the weekend. The ridge will move east
and be replaced by increasing westerly flow Sunday, with the
potential for critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM.
However, recent and ongoing rain has likely enhanced ongoing
greenup. The bigger fire weather concern will come Monday with
stronger southwest winds developing ahead of an approaching upper
level trough. Critical conditions will be more widespread Monday
and fuels across western NM may be receptive to ignitions. A Fire
Weather Watch for Monday may be required. Warm, dry and breezy
conditions will prevail Tue/Wed, but not as windy as Monday. Winds
will crank back up Thursday in advance of an upstream trough,
with critical fire weather potential returning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  82  46  85 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  34  76  37  80 /  30   5   0   0
Cuba............................  39  75  43  79 /  30   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  81  39  82 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  75  42  78 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  79  41  83 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  76  44  81 /  20   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  78  51  82 /  30   5   0   0
Datil...........................  42  75  46  79 /  30   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  36  81  39  84 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  85  53  88 /  20   5   0   0
Chama...........................  34  70  37  73 /  40   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  45  73  50  78 /  30   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  73  45  78 /  30   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  69  41  74 /  20   5   0   5
Red River.......................  31  63  35  67 /  30   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  28  66  31  71 /  30   5   0   5
Taos............................  33  74  37  79 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  36  71  41  77 /  30   5   0   0
Espanola........................  44  80  46  84 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  74  49  80 /  30   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  42  78  47  83 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  80  56  84 /  30   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  81  54  86 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  48  84  53  88 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  82  54  86 /  20   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  85  51  89 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  83  53  87 /  30   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  45  84  50  88 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  47  83  52  87 /  20   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  84  50  89 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  79  53  83 /  30   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  82  53  86 /  20   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  86  55  90 /  20   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  74  49  78 /  30   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  45  76  49  81 /  30   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  41  76  46  82 /  30   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  78  40  83 /  20   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  74  45  80 /  20   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  42  76  49  81 /  30   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  76  47  82 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  79  55  85 /  20   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  44  72  51  78 /  20  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  40  74  45  78 /  20   5   0   5
Raton...........................  39  78  43  82 /  30   5   0   0
Springer........................  39  78  43  84 /  30   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  74  45  81 /  30   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  47  80  55  85 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  43  75  49  84 /  40   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  48  82  52  91 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  47  80  51  88 /  30   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  83  53  92 /  60   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  51  80  55  91 /  70   0   0   0
Portales........................  50  82  54  93 /  70   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  49  83  53  93 /  40   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  86  58  99 /  30  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  49  80  56  89 /  20  20   0   0
Elk.............................  46  76  53  86 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...24