123
FXUS65 KABQ 140525 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding today and a low
  to moderate chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger
  storms that develop across the central mountain chain, eastern
  highlands and De Baca and Chaves County.

- Storms in central and southeast New Mexico have the potential
  to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
  evening.

- The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next
  week, keeping the threat of burn scar flash flooding moderate
  to high each day through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The 596 dam monsoon upper high, centered just off the coast of
Southern CA near Los Angeles, is currently building northeast
across the Great Basin to as far east as the CO Rockies. A moist
airmass is remaining in place along and east of the Continental
Divide with PWATs around 0.6 to 0.8 inches across central NM and 0.9
to 1.3 inches across eastern and southern NM. Additionally,
satellite imagery is showing a defined upper level disturbance
(likely originating from yesterday`s shower and storm activity)
spinning across southeast NM between Ruidoso and Roswell. Daytime
heating and high instability is helping to allow storms to develop
across the higher terrain across central and southern NM currently.
Storms will slowly move south and east into the surrounding
highlands and lower elevations during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of up
to 60 mph as well as large hail. For the Ruidoso area and the
HPCC burn scars, these slow and erratically moving storms this
afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of up to
3 inches an hour resulting in flash flooding and debris flows on and
downstream of the burn scars. Upslope southeast flow across these
burn scars will help promote heavy rainfall rates, as well as latch
the storms over the burn scars for several hours Sunday afternoon
and early Sunday evening. There is high confidence of rainfall
amounts between 0.25 to 0.75 inches with locally up to 2 inches
possible. Individuals in the area should stay weather aware and
have multiple ways to receive warnings if they are issued. Double
check your phone and make sure your wireless emergency alerts are
switches on!

Going into the evening, storms across the eastern highlands slowly
move southeast into the east central and southeast plains. Locally
heavy rainfall from rainfall rates of up to 3 inches an hour will
result in a higher risk of flash flooding hence why the Flash Flood
Watch was expanded to De Baca and Chaves County with the watch in
effect from 3 PM to midnight MDT. Storms moving south from the
Manzano Mountains and south central highlands could bring a 2nd
round of showers and storms to Ruidoso around 8 to 10 PM like late
yesterday evening. This could exacerbate potential flash flooding
from this afternoon`s round. Any shower and storm activity across
southern and eastern NM should taper off around midnight with
clearing skies from north to south during the early to mid morning
hours.

On Monday, the upper high center just off southern CA slowly shifts
eastward over the Great Basin. The aforementioned upper level
disturbance over south central and southeast NM today, rotates around
the upper high circulation to southwest NM and southeast AZ. This
disturbance combined with near to slightly above average PWATs
of 0.8 to 1.1 inches will help enhance diurnal shower and
thunderstorm activity across the western and southern mountains. This
includes the Sacramento Mountains and Ruidoso area burn scars. Storm
motion will try to be to the south-southwest because of the position
of the upper high center, but back building of storms along outflows
will help to result in slow and erratic storm motions over the burn
scars. The HREF 6 hour QPF mean amounts are showing around 0.5 to
0.75 inches over the burn scars with 6 hr QPF ensemble max amounts
of up to 2.5 inches. Antecedent conditions on the burn scar will
likely be very wet from today`s storm activity so this could result
in another catastrophic flash flooding and debris flow scenario for
the burn scars and the village downstream of these burn scars on
Monday. For that reason, a new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
the Ruidoso area. Mid and upper level heights show a weak
disturbance moving over the northern Rockies among the jet stream.
This will result in shower and thunderstorm development across the
CO Rockies with some of this activity extending as far south as the
north central mountains in New Mexico. Guidance is depicting
slightly drier air and subsidence limiting shower and thunderstorm
activity across eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. Thankfully,
the HPCC burn scar is on the western edge of this subsidence and
slightly drier air. Additionally, any storms that develop across the
ridgeline of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will move slowly
southwest away from the burn scar due to the clockwise flow around
the upper high circulation centered over southern CA and NV.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The monsoon high looks to weaken to around 593 to 594 dam as it
continues pivoting east over north central AZ in response to a 575
dam upper level trough moving into northern Idaho and Montana.
Guidance favors diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity over north
central and western NM. This is likely due to the NAM and global
guidance showing a inverted trough across the Permian Basin of West
Texas. Subsidence west of this inverted trough axis will help to
keep a cap on shower and thunderstorm activity across much of
eastern NM during the afternoon and evening hours and potentially
give the Ruidoso area a much needed break from shower and
thunderstorm activity the prior 2 days.

Come Wednesday and Thursday, the upper high over northern AZ moves
over New Mexico in an even weaker state before breaking down. This
is due to the northern stream upper level trough over Idaho and
Montana Tuesday moving southeast across the northern and central
Rockies Wednesday and northern and central Great Plains Thursday.
Also on Wednesday, an upper low becomes well defined just off the
west coast of Baja California. This upper low appears to have
origins from the upper level disturbance over south central and
southeast NM today, as mentioned in the Short Term. Southerly flow
north and east of this low combined with south-southeast flow on the
western edge of the broad Bermuda high over the southern US will
result in a traditional monsoon setup with western and central NM
favored Wednesday afternoon spreading to eastern NM as early as
Wednesday evening. The monsoon moisture plume will look to favor all
areas Thursday and Friday. During this time, a more widespread
coverage of storms with locally heavy rainfall and resultant flash
flooding is expected with a heightened risk across recent burn scars
and urban areas like the ABQ and Santa Fe metros. Come next weekend,
the upper low over Baja CA look to drift north over southern CA
while a new upper high centroid tries to establish and strengthen to
596 dam over central TX. This looks to push the monsoon plume and
higher shower and thunderstorm coverage more towards western and
northern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Storms have mostly ended around the region, except a few models
are showing storms regenerating between 06Z and 09Z in the
southeast plains. Other than that it should be a quiet night with
VFR conditions prevailing. Storms will develop over the high
terrain of central and northern NM around 18Z tomorrow, moving
slowly to the SW through the afternoon. Overall coverage will be
slightly lower than the past couple of days, but gusty outflow
wind gusts will continue to be the main concern at most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Shower and thunderstorm coverage are favoring southern and
central NM today, and will favor northern and western and
southern NM Monday and northern and western NM Tuesday. This is
due to the monsoon high just off the southern CA coast expanding
west- northwest to as far east as the central Rockies along with
some drier air moving into eastern NM early this week. The monsoon
high breaks down overhead Wednesday with a more traditional
monsoon pattern expected for the state through the end of this
upcoming week. A new upper high looks to redevelop east of the
state slowly building westward next weekend. This looks to push
the monsoon plume and higher storm coverage towards western and
northern NM. Any showers and storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding with urban areas and
burn scars being the most favored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  96  61  97 /  10  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  47  90  46  91 /  40  60  40  40
Cuba............................  56  86  56  90 /  40  50  50  30
Gallup..........................  53  92  52  93 /  10  40  40  30
El Morro........................  57  87  54  87 /  30  50  60  50
Grants..........................  55  89  54  91 /  30  50  60  40
Quemado.........................  58  88  56  89 /  50  60  60  60
Magdalena.......................  61  85  61  88 /  50  50  40  50
Datil...........................  55  84  55  86 /  60  50  40  60
Reserve.........................  53  89  53  91 /  50  70  50  70
Glenwood........................  58  91  58  94 /  50  70  50  70
Chama...........................  47  83  47  84 /  40  60  40  50
Los Alamos......................  59  84  61  86 /  40  40  40  50
Pecos...........................  55  83  57  86 /  50  30  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  53  82  54  85 /  40  60  40  60
Red River.......................  44  73  46  76 /  30  70  40  60
Angel Fire......................  39  76  41  78 /  30  40  30  60
Taos............................  50  85  51  88 /  30  50  40  40
Mora............................  49  79  51  83 /  40  30  30  50
Espanola........................  58  91  59  94 /  40  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  58  84  61  87 /  40  40  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  88  59  91 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  90  68  93 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  91  67  94 /  40  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  94  66  97 /  40  20  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  92  67  95 /  40  20  30  20
Belen...........................  63  93  63  96 /  40  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  63  93  65  96 /  40  30  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  62  93  63  96 /  40  20  20  20
Corrales........................  64  93  67  96 /  40  30  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  63  93  64  96 /  40  20  20  20
Placitas........................  63  89  65  92 /  40  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  64  92  66  95 /  40  30  30  20
Socorro.........................  66  94  67  96 /  50  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  84  59  87 /  40  30  30  30
Tijeras.........................  59  86  61  89 /  40  30  30  30
Edgewood........................  53  86  56  89 /  40  30  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  86  54  90 /  40  30  20  30
Clines Corners..................  55  81  56  85 /  50  20  20  30
Mountainair.....................  55  84  58  87 /  50  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  55  83  57  86 /  60  40  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  61  84  63  88 /  50  40  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  55  76  56  80 /  40  60  20  40
Capulin.........................  53  81  55  85 /  20  10  20  20
Raton...........................  53  86  54  90 /  20  20  20  30
Springer........................  54  88  55  91 /  30  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  53  82  54  86 /  40  20  20  40
Clayton.........................  60  87  63  92 /  10   5  10  10
Roy.............................  57  84  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  63  91  65  96 /  30  10  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  60  88  63  93 /  40  10  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  60  89  63  94 /  20   5  10   5
Clovis..........................  65  89  64  92 /  20  10  10   5
Portales........................  65  89  65  92 /  20  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  63  89  65  93 /  40  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  68  92  68  95 /  30  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  61  85  61  89 /  30  30  10  10
Elk.............................  58  81  58  85 /  30  50  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16