Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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428 FXUS65 KABQ 120659 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1259 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 - There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days. - Gusty and erratic winds and small hail will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms each of the next several days. - Above normal temperatures this weekend cool to near to below seasonal averages next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The upper-high has rapidly intensified and amplified over the Rockies tonight, placing easterly flow over New Mexico. While boundaries from convection the past couple of days have pushed sfc moisture westward, dry air in the 700-500 mb layer is currently rotating into New Mexico from the northeast. This won`t have a huge impact on the overall PWATs, but this dry layer will squash convection and keep rainfall intensity rather low today. Isolated popcorn type storms could develop almost anywhere today, but wetting footprints will be small as storms move off to the west through the afternoon and evening. These storms will struggle to produce hail and strong winds, with only very localized erratic outflow wind gusts. Easterly flow remains in place on Wednesday as the upper-high migrates into the upper Midwest. Coverage of storms will be similar to Sunday, but moisture will trend up over the northern mountains, increasing rain chances there. The deepest moisture will be across the southeast where dewpoints will rise into the 60s and PWATs up over 1.5". This deeper moisture will push up against the central mountain chain, with easterly upslope flow favoring storm development on the east slopes. That being said, debris clouds from more robust convection over west Texas could help to limit destabilization and therefore rainfall rates. Furthermore, storm motion will be favorable to prevent storms from anchoring over the mountains, including area burn scars. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 A broad ridge will set up over the central and eastern CONUS Tuesday through Friday, with moisture rotating clockwise around it. The main plume of subtropical moisture will extend from west Texas into Arizona and northward into the Great Basin. Moisture over New Mexico will be near normal most of the week so each day will be typical for July with scattered showers and storms that develop over the mountains in the early afternoon and move into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will steadily drop through the week, from near normal mid-week to slightly below normal late week. An easterly wave has been progged to rotate around the high into Texas on Thursday, eventually moving into the Four Corners region on Friday. All ensemble systems have trended further north with this feature, translating to higher chances of deeper moisture reaching New Mexico. The main plume of moisture will remain off to the south over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, but GEFS and EPS ensemble means are showing PWATs 100-150% of normal over central and northern NM as well. This easterly wave will also bring cooler temperatures, with highs falling slightly below seasonal averages mid-week through the weekend. Long-term guidance is in good agreement that the monsoon high will set up over the Four Corners next weekend into the early portion of the following week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 A few showers in south central NM will taper off by 09Z. The outflow boundary that pushed through the RGV this evening is now in far western NM and will create gusty east winds at western sites through around 09Z. Isolated showers and storms may develop anywhere tomorrow afternoon, but overall coverage and intensity will both be low. Gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts will be the main hazard. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next seven days. Humidity trends up 5 to 15 percent today around the region as easterly flow develops over New Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and storms today will struggle to produce wetting rainfall, with gusty outflow winds remaining the main hazard. This pattern will persist through the middle of the week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms each day. Temperatures will trend lower each day as well, dropping down to seasonal averages mid-week and eventually below seasonal averages late week. An easterly wave will bring more moisture late week, increasing the coverage of showers and storms, particularly across western New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 99 69 96 65 / 5 20 30 30 Dulce........................... 95 52 92 50 / 10 20 50 30 Cuba............................ 89 58 86 57 / 20 5 40 10 Gallup.......................... 93 56 90 56 / 30 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 89 58 86 57 / 10 20 10 10 Grants.......................... 92 59 89 57 / 20 20 10 20 Quemado......................... 89 59 87 58 / 30 30 20 30 Magdalena....................... 87 63 85 62 / 20 20 10 20 Datil........................... 84 60 83 59 / 20 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 91 55 90 55 / 50 20 50 20 Glenwood........................ 94 57 93 57 / 70 40 50 40 Chama........................... 87 49 84 48 / 20 10 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 84 63 / 10 10 30 5 Pecos........................... 85 55 83 54 / 40 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 84 54 / 30 5 60 10 Red River....................... 76 46 75 46 / 30 10 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 80 42 78 41 / 30 10 40 5 Taos............................ 88 52 86 51 / 30 5 50 10 Mora............................ 82 52 80 52 / 40 30 30 10 Espanola........................ 94 61 92 60 / 20 10 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 86 61 84 60 / 40 10 40 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 59 88 58 / 30 10 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 67 92 66 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 64 93 64 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 64 95 63 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 67 93 66 / 20 20 10 20 Belen........................... 96 63 94 62 / 20 30 10 30 Bernalillo...................... 97 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 95 61 94 61 / 20 30 10 30 Corrales........................ 97 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 96 63 94 63 / 20 30 10 30 Placitas........................ 92 66 90 66 / 20 20 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 66 94 65 / 20 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 98 69 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 60 86 60 / 20 20 10 20 Tijeras......................... 89 60 87 60 / 20 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 89 57 87 56 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 53 88 53 / 20 20 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 84 55 82 55 / 20 20 10 5 Mountainair..................... 88 56 87 56 / 20 20 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 86 57 85 57 / 20 20 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 89 63 88 61 / 20 10 40 5 Ruidoso......................... 81 56 78 55 / 30 20 50 20 Capulin......................... 81 53 81 54 / 20 10 5 0 Raton........................... 86 53 86 54 / 30 20 5 0 Springer........................ 88 55 87 56 / 30 30 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 56 82 55 / 20 30 20 10 Clayton......................... 89 61 87 61 / 20 10 5 0 Roy............................. 85 59 84 59 / 20 30 5 0 Conchas......................... 93 63 91 63 / 20 30 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 88 61 86 61 / 20 20 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 93 64 90 64 / 20 20 10 10 Clovis.......................... 92 64 88 63 / 50 20 30 20 Portales........................ 93 64 89 63 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 89 63 / 40 10 20 30 Roswell......................... 94 67 89 66 / 30 30 30 50 Picacho......................... 89 61 85 60 / 30 30 30 40 Elk............................. 86 57 82 57 / 30 40 40 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16