Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 171932
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

...A Few Chances for Rain...

.DISCUSSION...The pattern will turn fairly active over the next
few days with numerous chances for much needed rainfall. There
could even be strong to severe storms Friday. Quieter weather is
then expected to return Sunday into early next week. Temperatures
will be all over the place, warmer days through Friday then
cooler this weekend, followed by moderating temperatures early
next week. Winds will be gusty at times through the weekend.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-180830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Widespread frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Areas of frost
                    until 1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (27770).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.16 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (810).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (34120).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Areas of frost
                    until 1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (20000).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.40 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the north around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.14 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (35300).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....55-60...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (18510).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.34 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (360).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (29440).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-180830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 24 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (14440).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.47 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (490).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (35980).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Widespread frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Areas of frost
                    until 1200. Chance of rain showers until 1200,
                    then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (10400).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.11-0.48 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (960).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.13 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (37120).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS


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