Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...Rain Expected Sunday into Monday...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will briefly take over the Upper Great
Lakes for tonight and Sunday morning. However, a low, and
associated cold front will move into the region by the afternoon,
and bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the state.
The models are not as wet as advertised the last few days, so
amounts may under preform for portions of northern lower
Michigan. We will get rain, but the amounts may be underwhelming.
However, the cool air behind the cold front will cause the
temperatures to struggle to get to 60 in some locations, on
Monday. Tuesday looks to be dry, and a little warmer as we get
back into the mid 60s, with min RH values around 35%.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (390).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms until 2400, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the north
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.45 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler...except 13 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (720).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.14 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the south
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the south
                    around 21 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.39 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 3 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (640).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.11 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the north
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.37-0.48 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....Around 61.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler...except 13 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.14 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 48-53 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the west
                    around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.38-0.51 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler...except 14 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.10 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (470).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.48 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (620).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.10 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JL


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