Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 171939
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

...Quiet weather with some low afternoon humidity Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...Deep low pressure continues to move northeasterly
off the coast of New England this afternoon, with no significant
synoptic features in the region through Sunday night. Lake
breezes that formed this afternoon will return back to the
northwest and remain light throughout the evening and overnight
hours. The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday night into
Monday as a cold front crosses the region. No humidity concerns
today, but low/near critical afternoon humidity expected Sunday.
Gusty northwest winds will also be ushered in behind the
aforementioned cold front Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-180830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 33-38 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent...except 35-40 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 19 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (400).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....48-53...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (900).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Occasional
                    sprinkles until 2400.
Min Temperature.....29-34.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the northwest
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (390).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (880).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to west around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 36-41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....44-49...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (640).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-180830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....28-33.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent...except 35-40 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (750).
Mixing Height.......7100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....32-37.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Occasional
                    sprinkles until 2400.
Min Temperature.....28-33.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........23-28 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......7400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (780).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to west
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

TL


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