Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 170000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday. A warm front
will lift northwards across the area Thursday night, followed by a
cold front late Saturday. High pressure will briefly return across
the area on Sunday before another cold front arrives on Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Minor adjustments to sky cover early this evening to account
for some thicker mid/high clouds moving south across the area.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Original discussion...
Quiet weather will persist through Thursday under surface high
pressure and ridging aloft. Mostly sunny to sunny skies will be
common across the region with just some isolated spots of thin
cirrus overhead. Although mixing heights are forecast to be
similar to those today (850-800 mb), the air aloft will not be
as dry so RHs should be slightly higher. In addition, a weaker
wind field should allow for a lake breeze to develop in the
afternoon hours. Forecast low temperatures will be chilly, in
the 50s west of I-71 to perhaps the mid to lower 40s east of
I-71.

By late Thursday night, the weather gets a little more interesting
as models indicate a decaying MCS approaching the western fringes of
NW OH. This should set the stage for our severe weather on Friday
and perhaps into Saturday. More details are found below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Focus is on the severe potential for Friday and into the first part
of the weekend. Activity gets going likely Thursday night with an
MCS/other scattered convection developing over the upper Mississippi
Valley, tracking eastward overnight. The ability for this to reach
the western zones of the forecast area by morning and hold together
will have some say over the later afternoon development of storms,
for which we are currently outlooked in slight risk by SPC. By
Friday morning, area will be well in the midst of a surge of low
level/surface moisture in return southwesterly flow. While there
should be a good setup for mid and upper level instability, along
with the southwesterly surge of moisture will come some warmth at
roughly 850mb that the convective potential will have to overcome.
Unclear if a decaying MCS could help with offsetting that warm
advection, and on the flip side, may need a few hours of insolation
to help the atmosphere recover, presumably in at least the western
zones. Should not be an issue as we approach the longest day of the
year. Expecting low level jet, or smaller jetlets to arrive
supplying an increase to the speed shear, and have significant
directional shear despite low level winds veering slightly through
the morning. Strong wind potential is the main issue given the
evolving bulk shear magnitudes and the dry air above around 650mb
available to assist downward motion of parcels. Convergence will be
supplied by a cold front/low pressure center moving into the region.
Heading into Saturday, a secondary cold front and any other
lingering boundaries from the Friday convection combined with better
upper level jet support renews the convective potential. However,
some of the mid level moisture will be lost at this point, but and
convection could still carry another wind threat. A few
showers/storms could linger south Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another airmass sweeping cold front preceded by showers and storms
expected Monday with cool, dry Canadian high pressure influences.
This airmass will persist through the middle of the week while
undergoing gradual modification, that is, a slow uptick in
temperatures, but Tuesday and Wednesday will not get out of the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure
persists across the region. Mainly clear skies expected, aside
from some passing cirrus. Winds will be light/variable
overnight, becoming generally WSW during the day. A lake breeze
may bring more northerly flow to KCLE/KERI for a time during the
afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in strong thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and/or thunderstorms
on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds veer around to a southerly direction later tonight but will be
subject to afternoon lake breeze effect Thursday. Southwesterly
winds increase to 10-20kts ahead of a frontal system beginning
Thursday night and persisting through Friday, turning westerly and
northwesterly Saturday behind the cold front. This could necessitate
a small craft advisory for the eastern basin Geneva east into NW PA
with the WNW turn. Thunderstorm threats with possible severe weather
begin late Thursday night/early Friday morning through Friday
evening, and possibly again on Saturday. Weak high pressure moves in
Saturday night and Sunday and will be followed by another strong
cold front Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...26


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