Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231421
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1021 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over far northwest Ohio will continue to slowly
push eastward today. This low will move north of Lake Erie
tonight and reach the New England states by Sunday. A surface
trough will move across the area behind the low on Sunday. High
pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes behind this
trough and settle over the region for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure continues to creep slowly through the Midwest and
is now over far northwestern Ohio with a warm extending to the
east, now north of Lake Erie. Scattered residual showers and
isolated thunderstorms remain this morning across portions of
the forecast area but once this round of convection moves north
of the area, there will be a good period with minimal convection
this morning. As the low continues closer to the area and
daytime heating this afternoon, generally expect for convection
to fire back up with scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Not expecting today to be a washout by any means but
just like Friday, everyone will see rain at some point and
several spots will get a couple rumbles of thunder. While there
isn`t too much to key onto for today`s convection, several of
the hi-res, near term guidance suggests an enhanced area of
convergence over NE Ohio and NW PA, particularly as the low move
north of the area this afternoon. Therefore, have the highest
pops and QPF for this area.

With the loss of daytime heating and the forcing of the low,
convection should significantly diminish at sunset with some
residual showers lingering about NE Ohio and NW PA. The next
round of rain will come on Sunday with a surface trough moving
across the area. This trough isn`t all that strong so not sure
how robust convection will get going on Sunday... thinking that
the best chances are east at this point, closer to the departing
low. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal as there is
plenty of rain and cloud cover to keep temperatures down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Model differences continue in the short term period.  The GFS
appears to be suffering from convective feedback so confidence is
pretty low today. A few showers are possible downwind of Lake Erie
on Sunday evening but those should be gone by early Monday.  Monday
and Monday night will be quiet as high pressure passes to the north
resulting in dry easterly flow.  Temperatures will average a little
below normal on Monday.  Model differences really start to show up
on Tuesday. The GFS pushes showers and thunderstorms into the area
late Monday night as low pressure moves over the western lakes
forcing a warm front into the area. Just got a look at the new ECMWF
and it remains much slower with the main features and precip. Will
keep Tuesday morning dry and bring chances to the west third of the
area by 00z Wed.  Better chances for thunderstorms exist Tuesday
night. Temperatures Tuesday will get back a little above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It`s going to get warm and humid by the end of the period.  A weak
cold front will settle over the region on Wednesday.  Scattered
showers and storms are likely as the front moves through. There will
not be a true airmass change behind the front and by early Thursday
the flow will be back to the SW and the warm up will begin.
Temperatures will push into the upper 80s some areas Thursday with
dew points around 70 degrees.  Add a couple degrees to that for
Friday and expect some areas to add to their tally of 90 degree
days.  Will keep both Thursday and Friday dry for now but certainly
cannot rule out a few pop up storms...especially Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low pressure over the western basin of Lake Erie continues to
promote scattered showers and thunderstorms and overcast skies
across the area. Ceilings are a mixed bag of VFR to LIFR
depending upon where showers are located and where rain hasn`t
interrupted any low stratus from developing. Difficult to have
any real precision on precipitation chances at any one terminal
today as precipitation coverage will be scattered.

To start off the TAFs...have a mix of current conditions with
non- VFR ceilings and visibilities based upon current radar
trends over the next couple of hours. Non-VFR should continue
through the afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be around as the low passes to the north. Left KCLE and
KERI as primarily VFR for ceilings as the southeast downslope
flow will keep ceilings up just enough. More thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon with daytime heating but will generally
be from KCLE and east so have a vicinity thunder mention for
KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI and left KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD as just
a vicinity shower. With the loss of diurnal heating tonight,
convection will diminish fairly quickly and generally think that
most areas will dry out shortly after dark. Some non-VFR stratus
may linger, especially in areas that get the most rain this
afternoon and hinted at this a bit in the TAFs at KCAK and
KYNG. Winds will be southerly ahead of the low for much of today
but will shift around to the west later tonight as the low
departs to the northeast.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible on Sunday in any showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
East to southeast flow continues on the lake early this morning.
That should change this morning as low pressure along the IN/OH
border moves northeast to near Detroit.  A warm front from the low
will lift north of the lake by 18z with S to SW expected. Speeds
will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range so will not need any
headlines.  The low will linger over or just north of the lake
tonight into Sunday morning before finally moving off to the east
later in the day.  A cold front trailing the low will push south by
late in the day causing the flow to become NW to N.  Speeds again
should remain under 15 knots.  By daybreak Monday the flow will be
NE as high pressure builds in from the north.  The high will move
off to the east Monday night causing the flow to take on a southerly
component.  Lot`s of uncertainty exists in the models after that but
it appears another warm front will lift north across the lake late
Tuesday or Tuesday night with resulting southerly flow.  This will
be followed by a weak cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kubina



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