Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 172043
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the lower Great Lakes will move southeast
tonight before stalling over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Weak low
pressure will move east along the front on Sunday. High pressure
will build in behind the front on Monday before weak low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes on Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front stretching from lower Ontario into southern lower
Michigan and westward will continue to sag south this evening.
Precipitation is struggling to develop ahead of it as there is
quite a bit of dry air still over the region. Some light radar
returns this afternoon are just some flurries that aren`t very
concerning for accumulations at the moment. The flavor of the
forecast is that flurries will be likely across the area at some
point tonight but any more significant snow showers would be
limited to the snow belt with some lake enhancement or out west
where there is a bit better lift and moisture... so have a
slight chance everywhere with chance pops in the east and west.

The front will continue south of the area tonight and stall as
a weak surface low will ripple along the stalled front for
Sunday. There is enough support aloft for rain or snow showers
to move in ahead of this feature and will keep a mixture of high
chance to likely pops. Generally believe that everyone will see
some precip on Sunday but going categorical pops is the wrong
flavor of the forecast as liquid/snow accumulations will be
light. Biggest challenge for Sunday`s forecast will be
precipitation type... rain or snow will be expected but
changeover will depend on timing of the low and the cold air
surge behind it with rain of course more favored south and snow
favored in the snow belt with a mix of both in between.
Temperatures through the period will continue running colder
than normal, and Sunday night could be into the 20s as cold air
surges down from the north.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow will continue to be progressive, but for this week systems
will begin to come from the west coast of the U.S. versus Canada. So
while the the first part of the week will still feature below normal
temperatures, we will have some slight moderation going toward mid
week. Made adjustments to Monday`s forecast which lowered the chance
of precipitation. We look to end up dry as a wedge of high pressure
will be briefly in place with a light southwest flow. There will be
one low to track across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes for
early Tuesday morning with another Wednesday morning. These will be
quick systems with light precipitation.  Wednesday`s system looks a
bit stronger, but generally moisture starved.  High temperatures
will be stuck in the mid/upper 30s with a few locations touching
40 (about 10 degrees below normal). Lows will be in the upper
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With Wednesday`s system trending a little stronger, this will
therefore bring in a quick colder snap for Wednesday night through
Thursday night before we get to move toward relative warming for the
rest of the week. The cool high passes across the Great Lakes on
Thanksgiving, staying north of the local area. This will bring north
through northeast and east winds Thursday. Not too concerned with
any lake effect snow Wednesday night. The moisture just isn`t there
and by Thursday all of that flurry activity will be squashed.
Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring warmer temps
for Friday and we will be dry.  The next chance for precipitation
will arrive late Friday night and for Saturday. This is as a
shortwave cuts across the country, lifting northeast as it reaches
the Mississippi Valley. Precip type should not be a concern with H8
temps rising to +4 except for possibly a few cold valleys across the
far east. So after Thanksgiving temps rise into the mid/upper 40s
for Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Widespread non-VFR ceilings persist over the terminals this
afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the north. As
the cold front moves into the region will see ceilings fall
across the area but the frontal passage generally looks dry so
will keep TAFs fairly dry for the first half of the critical TAF
period except for KTOL and KFDY where there could be a stray
snow shower. The front will stall across the area and will be a
source for snow/rain development overnight into Sunday. Didn`t
hit precipitation impacts too hard right now with mostly a
vicinity mention for tomorrow morning but will have a MVFR/IFR
snow period at KTOL as there is some higher confidence in snow
there. Winds will begin out of the west ahead of the front and
eventually will veer around to the north and then northeast to
east as the front moves south. Winds will be generally be light
through the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves continue to slowly diminish/subside in the wake of a
weak trough/cold front but the small craft advisory will need to go
just a bit longer. That trough will buckle north across the lake as
low pressure moves up the Ohio Valley Sunday. This will be followed
by another trough Sunday night and high pressure Monday. Low
pressure moving across the Great Lakes will sweep a cold front
across the lake early Tuesday with a second system moving across
early Wedneday. High pressure will be centered north of the lake for
Thanksgiving.  Small craft advisory will likely show up again for
Wednesday into Thursday. The Wednesday low has trended a little
stronger with a bit more cold air and have brought wind/waves
up.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Oudeman


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