Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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657
FXUS61 KCLE 231328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
928 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today but should
slide off the East Coast of the US by Sunday morning. This will
make way for a low pressure system to move from the Central
Plains to the Southern Appalachians on Monday. High pressure
will then take back control By Tuesday and persist into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes with this mid morning update.

Original discussion...A quiet Saturday and Saturday night is
expected across the area as high pressure currently centered
over Chicago drifts southeast through the Ohio valley and to the
Carolina coast by Sunday morning. Lingering lake effect clouds
across northeast Ohio and northwest PA will dissipate through
the morning, with otherwise sunny skies expected across the
area. Highs will range from the mid 30s across northwest PA to
the mid/upper 40s across northwest and north central Ohio. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid/upper 20s with some high clouds
overspreading the area from the west overnight. Sunday will be
dry across most of the area through at least early afternoon,
however low pressure will track from the Plains toward the area
during the day. Some rain may sneak into northwest Ohio late
Sunday afternoon with the warm advection wing of the system
moving into the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 50s for
most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will be moving across the lower Ohio River Valley
Sunday night and then off the East Coast of the US Monday
afternoon. It appears that most of the region will see rain but
it will be light. The best chances will be across the central
and southern CWA as a weakening cold front pushes southward.
High pressure takes control of the region MOnday night and
remain into Tuesday night.

Cool on Monday in the wake of the cold front with highs in the
mid 30s near the lake to the mid 40s south. Still cool on
Tuesday with northeast winds off the lake. Highs will generally
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will slide to the East Coast of the US by
Wednesday with a warmer southerly wind developing. As low
pressure takes shape over the Central Plains Wednesday night
into Thursday the warm advection will increase. So expect warmer
through the end of the week. Chances of showers may increase
Thursday night into Friday but difficult to go more than
scattered coverage at this point in time.

Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 40s near the lake to
the mid 50s south. Warmer Thursday into Friday with most inland
locations near or slightly above 60 degrees. Hopefully the
southerly flow will be strong enough to keep the lakeshore area
warm like inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure will drift southeast across the region today, with
VFR conditions expected and mainly clear skies, with some
lingering low clouds at eastern terminals scattering out this
morning. Some high clouds will work in from the west late in the
period in advance of the next system. Winds will slowly back
northwest to southwest through the period, generally 10-12 kts
or less.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in light rain Sunday night into
midday Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over Lake Michigan will drift southeast across
Ohio today reaching the East Coast of the US by Sunday morning.
This will allow the northerly winds to gradually decrease
through the morning. So we still expect the small craft advisory
to end by 11 am. Low pressure over the Central Plains will move
east across the lower Ohio Valley on Monday as a weakening cold
front sags southward across the lake. So northerly winds will
increase with a chance that a small craft advisory will be
needed. High pressure over southern Canada and the western
Great Lakes will build southeast across the lake Monday night
and remain in place into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/MM/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...MM



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