Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 270753
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this afternoon into early
evening as an upper level trough deepens overhead. A second cold
front will accompany low pressure as it moves through the Great
Lakes tonight. High pressure will build in Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the area will dissipate by morning as
low pressure moves northeast up the east coast and a cold front
approaches Ohio from the west. By 12z today the front should
extend from northern Indiana to the thumb of MI. The front will
move across the area beginning in the west around 18z. By 00Z
Saturday the front will be near an KERI-KYNG line with the
parent low in srn Ontario. A second low will be in nrn IL. This
low will cross Ohio and be near KCAK at 12Z Saturday dragging
another, stronger, cold front across the region. This second
front will be followed by building high pressure Saturday
afternoon from the west. Guidance continues to indicate chance
pops for today as cold front number one moves through. Have
tried to work timing into the grids with chance pops beginning
west around 18z tracking east to near a KCLE-KMFD line 21-22Z
and KERI-KYNG around 00Z. Overnight the second shot moves in
from the west. Prospects for precip improve with this system as
the upper trough digs into the region and temps aloft fall. Will
have high chance to likely pops. Saturday should begin with
rain central and east drying from the west in the afternoon.
Will again have high chance and likely pops east to start,
dropping to chance in the afternoon. Chance pops west in the
morning. Temps near normal today and back to well below normal
Saturday. (spoiler...temps next week look much warmer).


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Well it looks like we may not be able to get the upper trough to
move along quick enough to not be able to have a chance for snow
showers in the forecast for the far east snowbelt and maybe a flurry
across the rest of the snowbelt Saturday night. Lows will be right
near or just under the freezing mark. Sunday will be a transition
day as the surface high shifts east across IN. By Monday the high
will be over the Ohio Valley and winds begin to back to the
southwest. So Sunday will be below normal, but temperatures begin to
recover for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A terrific set of days on tap for mid week. The upper ridge axis
will be overhead Tuesday and and with time through mid week will
begin to break down from shortwave impulses moving out of the
western U.S. trough. After a dry and mild Tuesday, the chance for
showers and some thunderstorms enter the picture for Wednesday and
even more so for Thursday. Good agreement in overall big picture,
but details will come with time. For now have gone on the warm side
of guidance and took a blended approach to precip chances/timing
toward the end of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Expecting primarily VFR conditions overnight and through Friday.
For the overnight high pressure and dry air are wedged across
the area between low pressure moving through the Carolinas and
a cold front approaching from the west. The east coast low will
spread only mid and high level moisture across mainly the
eastern terminals through the period. The cold front will cross
the area Friday. The front is fairly moisture starved, however,
it will come with a limited amount of instability so a few
showers or even a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
Chances are low enough to leave out of TAFS at this point.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds on the lake through tonight as a weak front
slides across the lake. Low pressure will track across the western
periphery of the lakes and rotate across Lake Erie and to Ontario
tonight through Saturday. This will definitively bring the winds
around to the west-northwest Saturday and Sunday. Winds/waves will
increase enough to likely need a small craft advisory by Saturday
afternoon. Winds begin to relax across the west half of the lake
Sunday with high pressure making its way east, but winds remain up
across the east. Marginal small craft conditions may continue. Winds
will back around to the southwest and remain that way through
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman



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