Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 182351
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
751 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move south and become stationary across the
region on Wednesday. The front will lift north as a warm front
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low pressure will move across the
northern Great lakes on Thursday. A trailing cold front will
move into the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated convection that had formed across NW OH and western
Lake Erie has diminished this evening, however models still hint
at some more development overnight upstream. There could be some
isolated showers/storms that move into the western part of the
area after 06Z, so have brought in a couple hours of slight
chance pops between 06Z-12Z. With this activity and the
associated mid/high cloud debris, becoming less confident in
fog development, however patchy light fog toward daybreak cannot
be ruled out.

Original discussion...
A weak cold front will drop south across the region overnight
and produce weak cool advection behind the boundary mainly over
the northeast section of the region east of Cleveland. Widely
scattered showers are developing over southern lower Michigan
and these may spread into northwest Ohio early this evening
before dissipating. Generally fair conditions can be expected
with some increase in high clouds. Patchy fog may develop toward
sunrise away from the lake east of I-71. Overnight lows will
still be above normal and range mainly through the 60s.

For Wednesday we can expected somewhat variable conditions with
the frontal boundary across the region and being on the
southern edge of the westerlies aloft. Weak impulses in the flow
may trigger widely scattered showers and storms mainly across
the west but confidence is low. Temperatures will be cooler
especially over the eastern half of the region east of CLE.

POPs will increase Wednesday night across the north into the
chance category as the front begins to shift north as a warm
front. Above normal temperatures will continue with lows in the
upper 50s east to the upper 60s near Findlay.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm frontal boundary will be located near Lake Erie Thursday
morning and could see a few showers or possibly a thunderstorms
moving across the lake or northern portions of the forecast area.
Highest chances will be focused towards NW PA as it will take longer
for the front to lift north. Clouds will tend to clear as the front
lifts north and upper level ridge expands overhead. The area will be
in the warm sector with high temperatures reaching 10 or more
degrees above normal.

Surface low pressure near the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday night
will track northeast into Quebec on Friday. The associated cold
front will approach northwest Ohio towards midday with convection
developing along or ahead of the front as a 500mb jet streak slides
northeast through the Central Great Lakes. Instability will be
somewhat limited but overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will increase as the front pushes east during the afternoon. Should
be sufficient time with breezy southwest winds ahead of the front
for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s again. Strong cold
advection expected behind the front on Friday night and will see low
level clouds linger into Saturday despite high pressure building in
from the north. Temperatures on Saturday will be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler and peak in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not many changes today to the long term.  Models continue to have
differing ideas on how much precip there will be during the period.
Have gone ahead and taken out all precip mention for the weekend as
the main baroclinic zone is expected to remain south of the area.
The ECMWF pushes a boundary north into the area on Monday and brings
precip chances with it.  Meanwhile the GFS keeps surface high
pressure to the north and keeps the boundary well south of the area
during the day.  The ECWMF also remains faster with the cold front
on Tuesday and pushes it into the area by the end of the period. The
GFS doesn`t have the front arriving till early Wednesday. Since we
already have precip in the forecast for late Monday through Tuesday
will not make any changes especially since the ECMWF has been
consistent with it`s faster solution.  Sunday will be the coolest
day of the period but readings will get back above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A weak cold front will sink into northern Ohio tonight. Mainly
VFR conditions are expected, however some isolated
showers/storms overnight could impact western terminals. Some
BR/stratus development is possible again, mainly at KCAK and
KYNG, but not confident in the extent of IFR, which should be
significantly less than yesterday. Winds will be light
overnight, increasing out of the north/northeast tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Friday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions with wind speeds of 15 knots or
less will continue on Lake Erie into Thursday. A weak cold front
will settle south across the eastern lakes overnight with winds
veering around to the northeast. A warm front will lift back north
on Thursday with southwest winds increasing late Thursday into the
first part of Friday to 15 to 25 knots. Winds will shift onshore
later Friday with the passage of a stronger cold front and a Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed for at least the east
half of the lake late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante/Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...KEC/Griffin
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...KEC


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