Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200109
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
909 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to
drift slowly east tonight and Monday. An area of low pressure
will develop over the Plains late tonight. This low will move
northeast to the central Great Lakes by late Tuesday and will
pass to the north of the local area Tuesday night. A strong cold
front trailing this low will be southeast of the area by
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The overnight through tomorrow evening forecast looks good. We
just updated a few temperatures with the trend the past few
hours. There are no changes to the ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion...
Quiet weather will continue for the next
24 hours or so. Smoke from the west coast fires has blanketed
the local area much of the day which has held temps back
slightly. Satellite is showing the smoke slowly drifting off to
the east and will try for mostly clear skies most areas
overnight. Monday will start out mostly sunny but clouds will be
on the increase during the day and by early evening the western
and southern ends of the area should be mostly cloudy. The
models remain consistent handling the low heading out of the
Plains tomorrow. Precip from this system will reach the I-75
corridor around 00Z Tuesday and then spread northeast across the
remainder of the area tomorrow night as a surface warm front
lifts north across the area. Expecting mainly showers but some
embedded thunder is likely.

Have stayed close to guidance for lows tonight. Tomorrow have
gone as little warmer than guidance near the lake because of the
downsloping component of the wind. Expect to see at least a few
middle 80s for highs tomorrow. Surface dewpoints will also be on
the increase during the period and it will feel very muggy
tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast.  Forecast starts off wet
and cool as models continue to track low pressure across the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday.  At the upper levels deep upper trough will
dig over the Great Lakes/NE, ushering in much cooler conditions. Low
will track over Lake Ontario Tuesday evening and into New England on
Wednesday.  Could see a few showers in the east Wednesday morning,
but high pressure will build in quickly and remain over the area
through the remainder of forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast starts with a warming trend across the area
as upper level high pressure builds over the area. By
Saturday...temperatures will be near normal to slightly above
normal. An upper trough will move east toward the Great Lakes region
Saturday into Sunday...bringing the chance of unsettled weather.
There is still a lot of uncertainty at this time as the GFS keeps
the area mostly dry through the forecast period while the ECMWF
brings a bit more precipitation. Either way...we will continue to
monitor and update the forecast accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Pilots and aviation interest flying in and out of northern Ohio
and NW Pennsylvania can expected VFR conditions through the next
24 to 30 hours. We will light northeast winds this evening
becoming either very light and variable or light easterly
tonight and then become light southeasterly by Monday morning
through Monday afternoon between 5 and 10 knots. High attitude
smoke and hazy skies will eventually clear out tonight.
Scattered high cirrus will be around through Monday. Some
scattered cumulus will develop with daytime heating on Monday
around 4k feet.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected tonight and Monday with high pressure over
the Eastern Great Lakes.  Winds turn to the SE tomorrow as high
shifts east.   Models continue in good agreement with low pressure
tracking across the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday.  Small Craft
Advisory will be needed sometime Tuesday, as winds turn to the NW at
15 to 25 knots behind the system.  Winds expected to drop below
Small Craft Advisory Criteria Wednesday night as high pressure
builds east over the Lake.  After that high pressure will remain the
dominant weather feature through the end of the work week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kubina
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Riley
AVIATION...Griffin/Kubina
MARINE...DJB


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