Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271950
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Primary forecast focus is on continued hot and humid conditions.

The story remains our unseasonably hot and humid conditions across
the area. We actually broke the record high for St. Joseph at 11:24
AM, which was 93 F set in 2006, and through 2 PM it`s high was 98 F.
The hottest temperatures remain focused at the leading edge of the
upper ridge axis from southern and southeastern Nebraska into
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, similar to yesterday.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Kansas City Metro area
through 8 PM this evening.

There remains a low chance a few thunderstorms may crop up along the
very diffuse/weak surface trough in central Missouri. Latest HRRR
and various flavors of the HiRes WRF have backed off quite a bit,
with the WRF`s almost silent, with convection. Additionally, there
has been little change in the cumulus development in eastern
Missouri, with almost no development into central Missouri beyond
the Columbia/Jeff City. However, it`s still worth a mention a storm
or two can crop up given the uncapped, high CAPE environment,
there`s just little to no focusing for ascent and little if any
shear.

For Memorial Day, it`s going to remain unseasonably hot, with
afternoon heat index values holding in the mid 90s, overall. Will
hold of on any Heat Advisory at this time, but the night shift may
need to assess given potential impacts with it being a Holiday known
for outdoor festivities. Messaging via social media and our web
pages have advertised unseasonable heat and heat safety for several
days now.

Remaining hot on Tuesday, a negatively tilted 500mb trough will
begin to approach the region, lifting off the central Rockies into
the northern Plains through Tuesday. At the same time, the remnants
of Subtropical Storm Alberto will be making it`s way north along the
lower Mississippi Valley. Into early Wednesday, long range solutions
are consistent with the Subtropical Storm formally known as Alberto
being absorbed into the large trough as a mid-latitude cyclone over
the joint Ohio-Mississippi Valleys. This will result in increased
shower and thunderstorm chances across Missouri and eastward. This
isn`t going to bring us much of a cool down, unfortunately, as highs
remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
sites. Winds will remain light, becoming variable at times, but
remaining primarily out of the south and southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ104-105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037-043.

&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz



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