089
FXUS66 KEKA 141324
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
524 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected to continue with above normal
high temperatures and chilly nights for the next 7 days. Breezy to
locally windy northeast winds return for the coastal headland and
exposed ridges this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure building over the Pacific Northwest
and Northern California is promoting northeasterly winds aloft.
This is promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions across
the forecast area. Low temperatures are generally in the low to
mid 30`s for the coastal valleys, mid 20`s to low 30`s for Trinity
valleys, and mainly in the 50`s in the ridges. With dewpoints in
the low to mid 30`s, low temperatures has been struggling to drop
to low 30`s for the coastal areas and southern interior
Mendocino.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 50`s to low 60`s
today and Wednesday, with up to mid 60`s for the warmest interior
valleys in Mendocino County.

A rex-block 500 mb flow pattern and dry weather will continue
through Thursday morning. Deterministic models indicate the high
pressure weakening on Thursday. A decaying cold front is expected
to traverse the Pacific NW on Thursday and become stationary over
Northern California late Thursday night. Meanwhile, a cutoff
trough offshore will drive south-southeast toward Southern
California on Friday. A push of shallow moist air Thursday evening
will likely lead to a fog and low clouds development for the
interior valleys Thursday night into Friday morning.

Ensemble clusters and deterministic models are in a good
agreement with a high pressure dominating the synoptic pattern
through the extended period, remaining off the West Coast through
early next week. Meanwhile a long wave 500 mb trough in the CONUS
midsection over the weekend. Offshore winds are expected to
increase again late this weekend along the coastal headlands and
interior ridges. A dry, cooler airmass will also fill in this
weekend, bringing near or below freezing low temperatures for
lower elevations, and possibly for coastal areas too. Low
dewpoints, clear skies and light winds at night  will allow for
ideal long wave cooling. Freezing temperatures are probable this
weekend into early next week, both along the coast and in the
interior sheltered valleys. /ZVS



&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailed overnight with light offshore
flow keeping the coastal terminals cold and dry. Weak NW winds will
develop early this afternoon beneath scattered cirrus. As a high
pressure ridge sits directly over the PNW, weak winds will allow a
marine fog layer to develop offshore. HREF is beginning to highlight
a 40-60% chance of ceilings <2000 feet and IFR visibilities
developing late this evening into early Wednesday morning at ACV. A
weak southerly wind reversal has the potential to develop along the
north coast and advect marine stratus into CEC as well.


&&

.MARINE...A long period swell at 18 to 20 seconds will fill into the
waters this morning, enhancing the risk of sneaker waves through
Wednesday afternoon. Weak northerlies and seas 5 to 8 feet will
persist through Thursday as this swell dominates the sea state. A
deep interior trough and trailing shortwave will bring the potential
for elevated winds Friday into the weekend; there is still a fair
amount of model spread limiting confidence on potential gales,
especially Friday and Saturday.


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An additional long period swell will create a longer
duration sneaker wave threat today through Wednesday, with much
calmer seas posing a greater risk of unexpected waves. A Beach
Hazards Statement has been issued for early this morning through
Wednesday afternoon as the swell period holds at 16 to 18 seconds.
Remember to remain attentive while at the beach -especially steep
beaches- and to never turn your back to ocean.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for
     CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ103-109-112-113.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png