Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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730
FXUS65 KFGZ 110543
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1043 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A series of progressively stronger low pressure
troughs will impact northern Arizona this week. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected on Tuesday with a few showers by evening
in far northeast Arizona. Better chances of snow and rain start
Wednesday, but the highest chances arrive late Thursday through
Friday night. Warm and dry conditions quickly return late this
weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds are decreasing from west to east this evening,
with light southwest breezes continuing in most areas. Clouds will
increase again by Tuesday morning as the next wave approaches from
the northwest. This one looks dry for most areas, except far
northeast Arizona by Tuesday evening where there is a 20-40%
chance of snow. Any accumulations look less than 1 inch. Sent some
minor updates to lower shower chances along the Mogollon Rim to
around 10% for Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /458 PM MST/...A weak short wave moving across Arizona
today brought just enough moisture for a few virga or light rain/snow
showers. Another trough of low pressure will swing though the Great
Basin on Tuesday. This will bring increasing winds across Arizona.
Have issued a wind advisory for the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains,
and the eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley for
late Tuesday morning into early evening. There will be just enough
moisture for a few light showers across the area Tuesday.

Another wave will move across Arizona on Wednesday with more
moisture. This will bring a better chance of light showers to the
area. QPF amounts range from a few hundredths to maybe two tenths
of an inch. This will be one of the coldest days of the week with
snow levels down to 3500 feet across souther Yavapai County to
around 4500 feet in the White Mountains. All areas along the Utah
border will see precipitation in the form of snow. The heaviest
amounts of snow look to be along the Mogollon Rim with an inch or
two.

Thursday through Saturday...There will be a brief gap in
precipitation for northeastern Arizona late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. However, some areas along and south of the
Mogollon Rim may not see much of a break. The snow level will
start off rather low Thursday morning/afternoon...and then will
rise rapidly as a warm and moist airmass moves in from the
southwest. Snow levels will rise to above 7000-7500` Thursday
evening through Friday morning. As this system moves more inland
and pushes closer to Arizona late Friday and Saturday, snow
levels will begin to drop between 5000-6000`. Confidence is
growing for chances for rain and snow showers. However, snow
levels are less certain. That makes snow amounts difficult to
predict for this event. Heaviest precipitation looks to be Friday
morning/afternoon.

Sunday onward...A ridge starts to build over Arizona on Sunday
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds southwest at 5-15 kts overnight. Winds
strengthen again after 15Z becoming southwest at 15-30 kts across
much of northern Arizona but gusting to over 35 kts from KFLG east
and northeast, gradually diminishing Tuesday evening.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions through 12Z Wednesday. After 12Z Wednesday, a series
of weather disturbances will deliver chances for rain and snow
showers with areas of MVFR and local IFR flight categories with
LIFR conditions possible under heaviest snow showers later on
Thursday. Winds west to southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts
through the period after 12Z Wednesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Winds out of the southwest
at 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph for much of the area on Tuesday but
for Fire Zones 113, 114, 115, 116 and 117, winds 20-30 mph gusting
40-50 mph. Expect minimum RH values of 15-35% on Tuesday. Increasing
moisture along with chances for showers later on Wednesday with
southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Turning much colder.

Thursday through Saturday...Look for widespread rain and snow
showers Thursday through Friday. Wetting rains are expected across
most of the area with accumulating snow possible above 6000 feet.
Drying out on Saturday. Winds south at 10-20 mph on Thursday then
southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Friday, mainly along and
north of the Mogollon Rim. Lighter winds Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ013>017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/MAS
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff