


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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730 FXUS65 KFGZ 110543 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1043 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A series of progressively stronger low pressure troughs will impact northern Arizona this week. Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Tuesday with a few showers by evening in far northeast Arizona. Better chances of snow and rain start Wednesday, but the highest chances arrive late Thursday through Friday night. Warm and dry conditions quickly return late this weekend into next week. && .UPDATE...Clouds are decreasing from west to east this evening, with light southwest breezes continuing in most areas. Clouds will increase again by Tuesday morning as the next wave approaches from the northwest. This one looks dry for most areas, except far northeast Arizona by Tuesday evening where there is a 20-40% chance of snow. Any accumulations look less than 1 inch. Sent some minor updates to lower shower chances along the Mogollon Rim to around 10% for Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION /458 PM MST/...A weak short wave moving across Arizona today brought just enough moisture for a few virga or light rain/snow showers. Another trough of low pressure will swing though the Great Basin on Tuesday. This will bring increasing winds across Arizona. Have issued a wind advisory for the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and the eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley for late Tuesday morning into early evening. There will be just enough moisture for a few light showers across the area Tuesday. Another wave will move across Arizona on Wednesday with more moisture. This will bring a better chance of light showers to the area. QPF amounts range from a few hundredths to maybe two tenths of an inch. This will be one of the coldest days of the week with snow levels down to 3500 feet across souther Yavapai County to around 4500 feet in the White Mountains. All areas along the Utah border will see precipitation in the form of snow. The heaviest amounts of snow look to be along the Mogollon Rim with an inch or two. Thursday through Saturday...There will be a brief gap in precipitation for northeastern Arizona late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, some areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim may not see much of a break. The snow level will start off rather low Thursday morning/afternoon...and then will rise rapidly as a warm and moist airmass moves in from the southwest. Snow levels will rise to above 7000-7500` Thursday evening through Friday morning. As this system moves more inland and pushes closer to Arizona late Friday and Saturday, snow levels will begin to drop between 5000-6000`. Confidence is growing for chances for rain and snow showers. However, snow levels are less certain. That makes snow amounts difficult to predict for this event. Heaviest precipitation looks to be Friday morning/afternoon. Sunday onward...A ridge starts to build over Arizona on Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Winds southwest at 5-15 kts overnight. Winds strengthen again after 15Z becoming southwest at 15-30 kts across much of northern Arizona but gusting to over 35 kts from KFLG east and northeast, gradually diminishing Tuesday evening. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...Look for VFR conditions through 12Z Wednesday. After 12Z Wednesday, a series of weather disturbances will deliver chances for rain and snow showers with areas of MVFR and local IFR flight categories with LIFR conditions possible under heaviest snow showers later on Thursday. Winds west to southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts through the period after 12Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Winds out of the southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph for much of the area on Tuesday but for Fire Zones 113, 114, 115, 116 and 117, winds 20-30 mph gusting 40-50 mph. Expect minimum RH values of 15-35% on Tuesday. Increasing moisture along with chances for showers later on Wednesday with southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Turning much colder. Thursday through Saturday...Look for widespread rain and snow showers Thursday through Friday. Wetting rains are expected across most of the area with accumulating snow possible above 6000 feet. Drying out on Saturday. Winds south at 10-20 mph on Thursday then southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Friday, mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Lighter winds Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ013>017. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/MAS AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff