Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFSD 161109

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
509 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Very quiet forecast from the next seven days with dry
forecast expected. Patches of stratus is expected to shift south and
east throughout the day today leading to partial clearing, but weak
flow and snow cover should limit mixing. Have forecast highs mainly
in the 20s today.

Weak west to east winds remain tonight. Clouds could hang tough
east of I-29, while better clearing develops across South Dakota
overnight. Lows will generally be in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

West to northwest flow aloft remains through mid week, but with the
jet positioned well to the south of the forecast area, will be a
struggle to warm substantially. Have nudged temperatures up a bit
closer to mean amongst the various model solutions, as the national
blend has been erring on the cool side of things as of late.  Weak
cool front works through the area Tuesday afternoon with the crux of
the cooling focused to the east across the upper Midwest.  Potential
for a cool night across the area on Tuesday night, however, models
are suggesting a fair amount of high clouds across the area Tuesday
night limiting cooling potential.

Northern branch of the upper level jet tries to reestablish across
the Northern Plains, mainly north of the forecast area. A weak and
very moisture starved trough works through the region Thursday night
into Friday morning, otherwise, upper level ridging should lead to
continued dry conditions. With low level flow out of the south or
west, expect temperatures to return to at or above normal levels.
Potential for fog with melting snow cover late in the week, but will
work on timing as time draws near.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Very difficult forecast today. MVFR ceilings slowly drifting east
across east central SD into southwest MN. IFR and occasional LIFR
conditions in northeast NE and northwest IA have been very slowly
drifting north. More than likely once the sun comes up the IFR and
LIFR conditions will dissipate and shift south. What happens with
the MVFR ceilings is a tougher call. Models really struggling
dealing with this low level cloud cover. It seems like there are
some hints that this MVFR cloud cover will dissipate gradually
by late morning into the afternoon, but once the sun sets it will
likely redevelop again.




AVIATION...08 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.