Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FNUS53 KGRR 171947
FWFGRR

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

...Widespread rain expected on Wednesday...

.DISCUSSION...
An area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday
will bring widespread rainfall. The heavier rain, likely near or
above a half inch, will occur from I-96 north into Central Lower
Michigan. So, areas that have been dry should receive a soaking rain
between late tonight and Wednesday night. A cold front on Friday into
Friday night will likely bring another round of rainfall to the area.

MIZ037>039-043>045-180830-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart,
Fremont, and Big Rapids
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 0500, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0500.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent toward daybreak.
Min temperature.....37-42.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 hr trend......18 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 300-800 ft AGL.
Mixing height....... inland, 1900-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100
                    ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....0-200 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.06 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1000, then rain showers until 1600, then
                    a chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....55-60.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 hr trend......29 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100-200 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.40-0.65 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 0200, then
                    partly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 0200.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent in the evening.
Min temperature.....44-49.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 6 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....0-100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.03 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....67-72.
   24 hr trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........58-63 percent near Lake Michigan and 45-50
                    percent Inland.
   24 hr trend......4 percent wetter near Lake Michigan and 10
                    percent drier Inland.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 700-1200 ft AGL.
Mixing height....... inland, 800-1300 ft AGL increasing to
                    2800-3300 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-500 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ040-046-180830-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 0500, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Min temperature.....38-43.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Max humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 hr trend......6 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2400-2900 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the northeast
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....0-300 (poor to good).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.01 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1100, then rain showers until 1800, then
                    a chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
   24 hr trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 hr trend......31 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-300 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.48-0.68 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 0500, then
                    partly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 0200.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent in the evening.
Min temperature.....44-49.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......14 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west around 6 mph overnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.04 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
   24 hr trend......17 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-300 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ050-056-064-071-180830-
Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland,
and South Haven
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 0200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0100.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....45-50.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1700-2200 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....0-100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.06 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 0900, then rain showers until 1600, then
                    a chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....62-67.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.55 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 0500, then
                    partly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....46-51.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......18 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    west overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....73-78.
   24 hr trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 hr trend......7 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 700-1200 ft AGL.
Mixing height....... inland, 700-1200 ft AGL increasing to
                    2700-3200 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100-300 (poor to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ051-052-057>059-180830-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia,
and St. Johns
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 0500, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Min temperature.....42-47.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Max humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2200-2700 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....0-200 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1000, then rain showers until 1800, then
                    a chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....56-61.
   24 hr trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 hr trend......35 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.41-0.71 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 0500, then
                    partly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 0200.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 hr trend......15 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    west around 7 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.03 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....70-75.
   24 hr trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 hr trend......17 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-300 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ065>067-072>074-180830-
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
347 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 0500, then
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 0300.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....44-49.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1300-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....0-100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.01 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1100, then rain showers until 1800, then
                    a chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....61-66.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 hr trend......32 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.46 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 0500, then
                    partly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 0200.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....100-200 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....74-79.
   24 hr trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 hr trend......18 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2700-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200-400 (fair to good).
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the
evening, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 6 to
11 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 11 to 16 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Lows in the mid 50s. West winds 6 to 11 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers until midday,
then showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 7 to
12 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 40.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
60s.

$$


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