925
FXUS63 KGRR 160540
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
140 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s and Likely Dry All Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

- Highs in the 80s and Likely Dry All Week

Dry conditions are favored to continue. Upper ridging across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada is not anticipated to relent anytime
soon. The ridging is anomalously strong, as shown by the ECE
ensemble mean 500 mb heights reaching almost 3 standard deviations
above normal across eastern Canada by late this week. Longwave
troughing across the western U.S. is going to have a tough time
making forward progress with such a strong ridge in place. Any
tropical activity that develops across the western Atlantic also
would likely be steered away from the region. A minority of ensemble
members (mainly from the GEFS) show rain associated with the
remnants of whatever becomes of the National Hurricane Center`s
"Invest 95L" reaching eastern Lower MI by mid week. Most ensemble
members overall do not depict this outcome, and given the upper
pattern in place we are likely to stay dry, aside from some cloud
cover from this system potentially by Wednesday or Thursday.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue unabated this week,
with 80 or warmer likely each day for almost all areas. Normal highs
are in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

High pressure east of the region will continue to provide a stable
east to southeast flow and dry atmospheric conditions through the
period. An onshore flow will develop for KMKG once again this
afternoon. Patchy fog will develop, but afternoon crossover
temperatures do not support it becoming widespread so we kept it
out of the TAF sites for now. We will continue to monitor the fog
trends through the night.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Waves of 1 foot or less are expected into much of this week given
mainly easterly flow. This will lead to pretty tranquil
conditions.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...MJS/Thomas
MARINE...Laurens/Hoving