


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
295 FXUS66 KHNX 161148 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 348 AM PST Sun Feb 16 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Drier conditions will prevail through next week as high pressure strengthens off the California coast before moving inland on Sunday. 2. Monday and Wednesday nights there is a chance for strong wind gusts along the Mojave Slopes. && .DISCUSSION... We have a rather benign pattern in place as a ridge of high pressure is over us. However, ensembles have the ridge flattening through the day today as a shortwave trough runs across northern California and the Pacific Northwest before leaving on Monday. The ridge will restrengthen Monday into Tuesday before another shortwave trough slides across the Pac Northwest again on Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge will restrengthen Thursday into next weekend. These two shortwaves are not going to bring any precipitation as there is a less than 10 percent chance for the San Joaquin Valley and most of the Sierra Nevada with Mariposa only having a 10 percent chance of any rain with the first shortwave and a 25 percent chance on the second shortwave. Winds will be a concern for the Mojave Slopes as the shortwaves move across due to a northwesterly flow aloft which will line up with the Tehachapis both times. There is a 65 to 95 percent chance of a max wind gust of at least 45 mph on Monday and a 50 to 80 percent chance of 45 mph wind gusts on Wednesday into Thursday. A High Wind Watch will be issued later this morning as spots have a chance of 60 mph gusts including Mojave at 49 percent. Temperatures will warm to about average for the next few days. However, ensembles strongly agree that there is an increase of the probabilities of highs of at least 70 degrees. Friday has a 25 to 40 percent chance increasing to Saturday at 40 to 70 percent chance. Sunday begins a trend of very high confidence in the models of 70s at 65 to 85 percent chance. The CPC also has this warming trend possibly going out farther with a 70 to 80 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The CPC outlooks also go from a 60 to 70 percent chance of below average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlooks to a 40 to 50 percent chance of below average in the 8-14 day outlook. However, there is no threat of breaking records as most of the records of the high temperatures for the next 2 weeks are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... 12Z Sunday: VFR conditions with clear skies and light northwest wind expected across the Central California Interior for the next 24 hours. The probability of MVFR visibility due to mist sits at around 30-40 percent with a 10-20 percent chance of IFR between 13Z and 17Z Sunday over the San Joaquin Valley, mainly north of Kern County. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 02/15/2025 14:07 EXPIRES: 02/16/2025 23:59 On Sunday February 16 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation.......JPK idss/pio...........Proton weather.gov/hanford