467
FXUS66 KLOX 152016
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
116 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...15/107 PM.

Consistent weather expected likely into next week. Coastal areas
will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures.
Interior areas will remain above normal with gusty winds at times,
especially across the Antelope Valley. There is a slight chance
of showers or thunderstorms for the mountains this afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/107 PM.

A 20 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm will persist into
the early evening then shut down once the sun goes down. If any
shower forms off the mountains, there will be a small but non-zero
chance of it drifting off the mountains and into the valleys due
to the easterly steering flow. This should be the last day this
week of any such threat.

Little change remains on the menu through Saturday. The weak
upper level low that has been over the area will depart tonight,
with weak ridging forming for Thursday through Saturday. This
will bring a few degrees of warming to the interior mountains and
valleys on Thursday with little change after through Saturday.
High temperatures between 80 and 90 will be common which is 5 to
10 degrees above normal. On the coastal side of the mountains
however, this upper level change should lower the marine layer a
little and decrease chances for drizzle, but otherwise have
little affect as onshore pressure gradients remain strongly
onshore keeping natures air conditioning on full blast. With that
said, the marine layer depth and coverage rarely stays exactly the
same every day with unpredictable changes, but there is little
reason to believe in any major changes. As a result, High
temperatures will remain in the 60s at the beaches, to between 70
and 80 inland, which is technically 5 to 10 degrees below normal
but not that unheard of for May Gray. Any day-to-day temperature
changes will be due to any unpredictable fluctuations of low
cloud daytime clearing times.

Onshore wind gusts will increase and expand over the interior
areas as they have been each day, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph
generally common in the afternoon and evening hours. The winds
will be strongest in the Antelope Valley, especially in the
foothills, where local gusts to around 45 mph will remain
possible. Will keep the low-end Wind Advisory in play as a result.
Winds could be 5 mph or so stronger Thursday and Friday with the
stronger onshore pressure gradients. Elsewhere, winds will be
fairly seasonal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/108 PM.

A series of small but potent low pressure systems will push
through the Pacific Northwest Saturday night through early next
week. This will break down the ridging aloft, but now that looks
to be delayed until early Monday, with Sunday being very similar
to the end of this week. There remains a fair amount of spread in
the ensemble solutions in terms of what happens next over our
region. Some draw a weak low that is currently 1000 miles west of
Los Angeles through southern California, while others drop a
rather large trough across eastern California and Nevada. Both
outcomes should result in a deepening and expansion of the marine
layer Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday with some drizzle and
widespread cooling (focused over the mountains and interior). The
extent and magnitude of those changes rests in which outcome wins
out.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1659Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees
Celsius.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs
and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. For this
afternoon, there is a 30% chance MVFR CIGs at KSBA will dissipate
and a 30% chance that MVFR will remain at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO and
KLAX. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY
restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing and flight
category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance MVFR
CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. For tonight, high
confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate
confidence in timing of category changes (+/- 2 hours of current
forecasts) and flight category (50% chance that conditions will
remain at MVFR levels). No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Dissipation of MVFR CIGs
could be as late as 20Z. For tonight, timing of return of
CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z
forecast. There is a 40% chance that conditions will remain at
MVFR levels tonight.

&&

.MARINE...15/1138 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Monday, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, high
confidence winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox