469
FXUS66 KLOX 181007
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
307 AM PDT Tue Mar 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/223 AM.

Dry and gradually warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through
early next week with well above normal temperatures likely next
Sunday through Tuesday. Gusty northerly winds will likely affect
the region at times through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...18/237 AM.

Very benign weather on tap for the three day short term. A ridge
will build into the area today, peak on Wednesday with 577 dam
hgts and then move to the east Thursday as a trof moves through
the northern half of the state. At the sfc northerly offshore flow
will persist through the period. The E/W grads will be slightly
onshore today but will turn to near 4 mb offshore Wednesday before
relaxing to very weakly offshore Thursday.

It will be dry with mostly clear skies through the period.

Gusty post frontal winds will continue this morning across the
mtns and Antelope Vly. The winds will subside by late morning with
sub advisory level winds continuing through the day. A Santa Ana
will develop Wednesday morning, but with no upper level support
the wind gusts will not reach advisory levels. No winds of note
will occur Thursday with very weak sfc gradients.

Most people will notice the warming trend that kicks off today as
the rising hgts and offshore flow combine. Most areas will see 3
to 6 degree of warming each day. The exception will be the
interior areas around Kern county where cold air advection today
will cool the area and lack of cool air advection Wednesday will
allow for 8 to 12 degrees of warming. Wednesday`s max temps will
mostly be in the mid to upper 60s along the coasts and lower to
mid 70s across the vlys. These max temps are pretty close to
normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...18/307 AM.

GFS and EC both deterministic and ensemble means are in good
agreement through the xtnd period.

Looks for weak ridging or dry NW flow across the area through
Sunday with a stronger ridge moving in Monday and esp Tuesday.

Offshore flow from the north will continue and will be strongest
on Friday where some low end advisory canyons winds will be
possible.

Max temps will bump up some Friday and change little on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday will see noticeable warming each day as the
strong ridge move into the state. 3 to 6 degrees of warming on
Sunday will be followed by 4 to 8 additional degrees on Monday.
Monday`s max temps will likely be in the mid to upper 70s across
the csts and in the 80s across the vlys. Monday`s max temps will
end up 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0613Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer.

Fairly good confidence in TAFs. All sites xcp KPMD and KWJF have
a 20 percent chc of IFR to low MVFR cigs through 17Z. Wind timing
at all sites may be off by 2 hours and there may be some lulls in
the gusty winds.

KLAX...Fairly good confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc
of BKN008-010 conds through 17Z. High confidence of no east wind
component.

KBUR...Fairly good confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc
of BKN008-010 conds through 17Z. There is 40 percent chc of a SSE
wind in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...17/834 PM.

Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level W-NW winds and seas
will affect most of the coastal waters thru Tue night. Winds will
likely (50-60% chance) reach low end Gales in the southern outer
waters and the southern inner waters thru early Tue morning. The
Santa Barbara Channel is not expected to have widespread Gale
Force winds, although a few isolated gusts could occur.

After the Gale forces end in the southern inner and outer waters
and the SBA Channel, SCA conds are expected thru Tue night.

After a break in the winds late Tue night/Wed, SCA conds are
expected in most of the outer waters Wed night thru Fri night,
except Thu night thru Fri night in the northern outer waters. In
the inner waters south of Pt Conception, SCA conds are expected
during the afternoon/eve hours Thu, with a 30% chance Fri.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 87. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 349>353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones
      655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...DB/Lund/Smith
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox