332
FXUS64 KMEG 131724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Scattered thunderstorms continue each day, mainly in the
  afternoon hours to early evening hours. Some storms could
  produce heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with
  high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
  could reach or exceed 105 degrees by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A seasonably deep trough will shift out of the Plains this
afternoon, approaching the middle Mississippi River Valley
tonight. This pattern will keep the Midsouth under weak southwest
flow this afternoon and tonight. The trough will deamplify
tomorrow, resulting in a more zonal pattern across the region that
should persist through the week. The approaching trough should be
enough to maintain afternoon/evening convection a bit later
tonight than we have seen in the previous few nights. However,
still expect storms to exhibit a gradual weakening trend, and
decreasing coverage after sunset. PWATS near 2 inches will favor
locally heavy rainfall. Additionally, some strong wind gusts/wet
microbursts will pose a threat along with frequent lightning.
Widespread severe storms look unlikely. Patchy fog is possible
late tonight, especially across north Mississippi where winds
should be lightest and near areas that receive rainfall this
evening or overnight.

Due to the approaching trough, we will likely see our highest
coverage of storms this afternoon/evening compared to early next
week. However, this time of year persistence is often the best
forecast tool. Atmospheric moisture values will remain elevated
(at or above 2 inches) through the work week with high temperatures
in the low to middle 90s, so afternoon thunderstorms should
develop each day. A 25-35% coverage each day would be a good bet.
Guidance suggests a slight warming trend during the work week,
but that seems to be a pattern that models have been forecasting
for the past 7-10 days and it really has not panned out. By
Thursday, NBM probability of temperatures above 95 degrees reaches
about 50% in portions of north Mississippi and southwest
Tennessee. We will likely continue to evaluate the need for any
heat headlines on a day by day basis.


As a side note, the National Hurricane Center has a 20% chance of
tropical development in the northern Gulf during the middle to
later part of the work week. Although no direct impact from a
tropical system is expected in the Midsouth, some tropical
moisture could eventually make it into our area next weekend.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Impactful weather expected during the TAF period at all terminals.
Widespread convection is currently developing at the beginning of
the TAF cycle. Thunder has already been observed in several cells
which will continue through at least 00z. Some uncertainty exists
regarding how long widespread convection will last into tonight,
but high moisture content and a troughing lend support to keep
VCSH through 06z at all but TUP. Storms will end by tomorrow
morning with VFR through 18z. Patchy fog could occur this morning,
particularly near TUP, but confidence is too low to mention at any
terminal yet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Prevailing hot and humid conditions through the foreseeable
future, with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day. As such, no
fire weather concerns are in the forecast.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB