Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front
over portions of Central Arkansas and into Central and Southern
Mississippi. Skies are mostly cloudy to cloudy across the Mid-
South with KNQA WSR-88D showing some light returns near the MO/KY
border. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range
from the upper 50s to middle 60s across portions of West Tennessee
and Middle 60s to lower 70s elsewhere across the area including
the Memphis metro area.

A warm front is expected to move north across the Mid-South
tonight bringing isolated to scattered rain chances to the area.
A surface low is expected to move across Southern Missouri on
Saturday and towards the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night. Short
term models indicate some rain showers with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm or two will be possible during the day Saturday with
the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms along a
trailing cold front Saturday evening. Overall upper level support
will remain weak with this system while some instability will be
present late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Overall
QPF amounts are expected to remain light with this system.

Long term models indicate upper level flow will transition to
southwest flow aloft next week. Several shortwaves embedded within
the upper level flow will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley
resulting in chances for rain with an occasional thunderstorm,
especially through the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe.
Heavy rainfall is possible during this period. A cold front is
expected to bring an end to the rain chances by Thursday night.



18Z TAFs

A few showers are developing over South Missouri but cigs are
still around 12000-15000ft with a fairly dry atmosphere below. It
will likely take a while for any rain to reach the ground. Delayed
the onset of showers at all sites. Cigs will gradually lower with
time becoming MVFR as rain begins or slightly ahead. Rain should
begin near JBR by 06z, at MEM around 11z, at MKL around 10z and at
TUP around 15z. Vis should remain VFR. South winds will increase
overnight to around 10-15kt with gusts tomorrow near 25kt.




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