Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1242 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a surface low
near the Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri while a warm front extends
from the low across portions of Southeast Missouri, Western
Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
is located over Oklahoma. Ample cloud cover is present across the
Mid South this morning resulting in cloudy skies across the area.
As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the
lower to middle 60s across most locations. Overall forecast
remains in good shape and no updates anticipated at this moment.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/


Currently...A 1003mb surface low is situated over SE Kansas with a
warm front extending ESE into Northeast Arkansas and West
Tennessee. A cold front extends SW into the Red River Valley.
Temps are in the lower to mid 50s north of the front and 60s are
found to the south. A few warm air advection showers are popping
up over eastern Arkansas though the significant rain at this hour
is well north of the warm front across the Ohio Valley.

Today and tonight...The surface low will weaken as it tracks ESE
along the warm front today into this evening. Expect a cloudy and
mild day with a few light showers. Temps will range from the mid
60s near Paris to lower 70s in the Delta. It will be breezy with
southwest winds at 15-20 mph with higher gusts. The cold front
will drop south across the area late this afternoon into this
evening. The latest CAMs shows some development as the front
interacts with a slightly unstable airmass. A few thunderstorms
are possible during the evening hours...mainly south of I-40 and
east of I-55. Temps will cool into the 40s across much of the area
by Sunday morning.

Sunday...The cold front will stall near the southern part of the
forecast area resulting in a mostly rain free day. Temps will
range from mid 50s north to near 70 closer to the front.

Sunday night through Monday night...The front will move back north
as a warm front Sunday night and Monday morning resulting in
increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The front
will move north of the area by Monday afternoon as the upper
ridge builds over the SE US in response to the upper trough over
the SW US starting to move east. By Monday afternoon most places
will be dry with warming temps.

Tuesday through Thursday night...Increasingly moist SW flow aloft
will prevail ahead of an approaching upper trough. PWs will
approach 2 inches by Tuesday afternoon. A slow moving cold front
will interact with an increasingly moist airmass across the Mid-
South to produce heavy rainfall starting Tuesday
afternoon/evening across Northeast Arkansas and gradually
spreading SE and stalling for a period before pushing through by
Thursday evening. The operational GFS is a little more progressive
than previous runs as a bit of energy in the northern stream
seems to help push the front through a bit quicker and as a result
the axis of heaviest rain has shifted a bit south with lesser
amounts...though still significant...than previous runs. The 00z
ECMWF remains slower with the heaviest amounts across the Mid-
South. The GEFS still seems the favor the less progressive
solution. For now we are looking at 3 to 5 inches over a large
part of the area during this time frame. Rainfall will be tapering
Thursday afternoon and evening as the front pushes east with the
arrival of the upper trough. A chance of showers will linger
through the night.

Friday...Dry and cool.




Winds will veer with time as a surface low tracks from south
Missouri into middle TN. Sustained speeds around 15 kts are
expected today with gusts to 25kts. Wind speeds will gradually
decreasing starting mid afternoon with North to Northeast wind
tomorrow less then 5kt.

Backed off on the forecast of showers this afternoon based on
radar coverage and short term guidance. Held onto VCSH for the
remainder of the day but prevailing on station rain does not look
likely. TUP may see some lower cigs before midnight, but for the
most part Cigs should remain MVFR or better with gradually
improving conditions overnight.




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