Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 050009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
709 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Showers will continue to move west and along the Mississippi
River ahead of a cold front. Tomorrow, the cold front will
push through the area and bring more widespread showers and
a few storms throughout the region. Behind the cold front, highs
for the weekend are expected to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s.


(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Upper level water vapor imagery depicts an upper level ridge
pushing off of the East Coast as a broad upper level trough starts
to move in. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to form
ahead of a cold front, associated with the main trough, that will
move across the area Thursday and Thursday night.

Isolated to scattered showers are confined to areas west and
along the Mississippi River for today. Due to the lack of
instability, few thunderstorms are anticipated with CAPE values up
to 500 J/kg in east Arkansas. However, NAM model shows
precipitable water(PW) values around 2 inches in that area so
locally heavy rainfall is possible Thursday. QPF values could
reach up to 1.25 inches with the heaviest showers in the Missouri
Bootheel and the most northeastern part of Arkansas. Lower
rainfall amounts are expected as you head south and east towards
northeast Mississippi where only a tenth of an inch will occur.

Following the cold front, temperatures will drastically decrease
15-20 degrees through the weekend. Highs are expected to be in
the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dewpoints are also expected to be in
the 40s due to the cold front advecting drier air from the north.
By Monday, both temperatures and dewpoints will increase slowly as
an upper level ridge starts to build into the region.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least sunrise,
but ceilings will begin a steady decline throughout the morning
tomorrow as a cold front approaches. HRRR guidance is likely
overdoing low ceilings at MEM tomorrow evening (suggesting as low
as 800 ft), but borderline IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites
except TUP is the general consensus by 00Z Friday. Visibilities
may also drop to as low as 4SM along with the low clouds tomorrow

Pre-frontal showers are currently approaching the airspace and
should continue picking up in coverage after midnight. Expect -SHRA
intermittently impacting MEM and JBR through the overnight hours,
eventually becoming more widespread by sunrise. Thunder potential
looks negligible enough to leave out of the TAFs, but an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out as these showers
continue to traverse the airspace. Light southeast winds should
gradually shift to the west and eventually north post-FROPA
tomorrow evening.





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