Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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664
FXUS63 KMKX 230431
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1131 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tnt-Sat.


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions from early Sat AM into early
Sun AM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 908 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tnt-Sat.

MARINE...Brisk northeast winds will develop over the northern
half of Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon and expand to the south
half Sunday night with the passage of a cold front. The brisk
winds and high waves will continue into Monday. A few gale force
gusts could occur Sunday night and a Gale Watch and warning may
eventually be needed for the open lake. For the nearshore waters
of east central and se WI, a Small Craft Advisory is likely for
Sun nt-Mon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 631 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019)

UPDATE...High pressure over the wrn Great Lakes will gradually
move sewd into the Ohio River Valley by 00Z Sun. Clear skies will
continue while lgt swly winds will develop on Sat over srn WI as
the high shifts south. The lake breeze will gradually move wwd
through the lake counties during the afternoon. Mild temps in the
50s are expected inland.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tnt-Sat eve.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 314 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tomorrow...Forecast Confidence is High...

High pressure will build into the area this evening and tonight.
Winds will diminish with sunset, with temperatures falling into
the 20s overnight under clear skies.

Saturday should be a very nice day, with sunny skies and
temperatures for much of the area in the low to mid 50s. Locations
closer to Lake Michigan can expect cooler readings, generally low
to mid 40s.

LONG TERM...

Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

A slow-moving closed upper low will swing from the Plains into the
Midwest on Sunday and gradually become absorbed into the main upper
trough stationed over eastern Canada. Low to mid level lift ahead of
this feature will bring a decent chance for light rain to southern
Wisconsin early Sunday morning. Specifically, the strongest mid
level lift will occur late Saturday night and it`s not until the
850mb frontogenesis kicks in early Sunday morning when the column
will be saturated enough to support pockets of rain reaching the
ground. The better, deeper forcing of 925-850mb frontogenesis and
vorticity advection will be mainly south of the WI/IL border during
the day Sunday.

The precip into southern WI will be trying to overcome layers of dry
air, both in the lowest level at the onset and in the mid levels as
the upper low weakens and exits Sunday night. The highest PoPs are
confined to the area south of I-94 where there should be deep enough
saturation and sufficient overall forcing to support at least
scattered showers during the day Sunday.

A cold front will slide southward Sunday night in the wake of the
departing low. The dry air will cut off any lingering showers.
Temperatures will be dropping overnight, so there is a small chance
for some flurries across southern WI before the dry air completely
moves in. No accumulation expected.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is High.

Another dry stretch of weather is expected with high pressure
drifting across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be in the 40s,
cooler near the lake, until Wednesday. Return flow around the high
will bring inland areas back into the lower 50s.

Wednesday Night through Friday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

We will transition into a little pattern switch late in the week
when an upper trough approaches from the west. Warm air advection
will begin Wednesday night and potentially bring some light showers
to southern WI. We could see hit or miss showers on Thursday, but
the better chance for showers and potentially thunderstorms will be
Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves through the area.
Depending on how amplified that upper low becomes, we could see some
light snow on the back side over the weekend. Not a lot of
confidence in which pattern will "win" yet.

AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered
stratocu based between about 3kft and 4kft will remain across
eastern Wisconsin this afternoon, but should dissipate with
sunset. Winds will be gusty from the north this afternoon, before
diminishing tonight. Light and variable winds are expected early
on Saturday, before becoming light from the southwest later in the
day.

MARINE...

Gusty winds continue across the lake this afternoon. The threat
for gales over the open waters has largely diminished, so will
allow the Gale Warning to expire just a few hours early this
afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory will continue into early
evening, which seems reasonable considering the continued
gustiness and elevated waves.

Lighter winds are expected on Saturday and early Sunday as high
pressure moves through the area. Winds then become gusty from the
north Sunday night as a front moves through the area. A period of
gales is possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Saturday Night through Friday...Cronce



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