Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220453 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast
area ahead of a cold front currently moving across Mississippi. The
cold front is expected to reach I-65 by 09z, then move southeast of
the forecast area by 18z Wednesday. General MVFR to VFR conditions
are expected until the front passes, then VFR conditions. Westerly
winds 5 to 10 knots are expected ahead of the front, northwest to
north around 10 knots behind.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 937 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level shortwave trough
over the Mississippi River swings east, then northeast, organizing
into an upper low over the Mid West as it heads north towards the
Great Lakes. A moderate cold front is approaching the northwestern
border of the forecast area at this time. A semi-organized squall
line is moving south across Mississippi and Southwest Alabama west of
the Tombigbee River at this time, in an area of ~1000J/kg MLCapes
indicated on the latest SPC analysis. Base velocities on the KMOB
and KLIX radars indicate surface winds around 30 knots in the
line. Am not anticipating this line to organize and strengthen,
with limited instability and a general lack of upper support. The
cold front is expected to be moving past the I-65 corridor by
12z/7am Wednesday, then south of the forecast area by 15-16z. A
cooler, drier airmass moving over the forecast area will bring a
drop in temperatures to below seasonal norms. Tonight, low
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s will drop into the low to
mid 50s over most of the forecast area Wednesday night, upper 50s
along the coast. High temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s to
low 80s will drop into the upper 70s to near 80 Thursday. And with
a drier airmass accompanying the cooler temperatures, the summer
stickies will vacate the forecast area for awhile.
/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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