Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 020500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1100 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through early tomorrow morning across
the region. By mid Friday morning, low level moisture will begin
to return as high pressure shifts east toward the southeast
Atlantic Coast. MVFR cigs are expected to develop near the coast
by mid morning and spread inland across southwest AL and southeast
MS through the afternoon. This timing is a little faster compared
to the previous forecast. The best moisture will be located over
the western two thirds of the area, so far eastern portions of the
area have the potential to stay VFR. MVFR cigs are likely to
persist at BFM/MOB through Friday evening, but enough drier air
may advect in closer to JKA/PNS to scatter clouds out by 03-06z
Fri. Light northeast to east winds tonight will become east to
southeast Friday afternoon, increasing to around 10 kt along the
coast. 34/JFB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022/


(Now through Friday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

Cool and dry conditions will persist through Friday with high
pressure over the southern Gulf leading to mostly zonal flow. Low
level moisture and low stratus clouds will slowly increase across
western 2/3rds of the forecast area on Friday along the western
periphery of a surface ridge across the southeast states. Temps are
the main part of the forecast with lows ranging from 35 to 41
degrees inland, from 41 to 46 degrees across the coastal zones, with
upper 40s to lower 50s at the beaches. Highs on Friday will range
from 65 to 70 degrees. /22

(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

Zonal to west-northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through
the period as an upper-level ridge builds over the western Gulf
and upper-level troughing sets up over the Northern US. At the
surface, a weak cold front is expected to push through the area on
Saturday and move into the northern Gulf by Saturday night. With
PWATs increasing to around 1.3 to 1.6 inches, isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible as the
front pushes through. Although severe storms are not expected at
this time, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms capable of
producing gusty winds, due to dry mid level air giving way to
DCAPEs of around 700 to 900 J/kg. By Sunday, the front will begin
to slowly lift back to the north as a warm front. With ample
moisture still in place, a few isolated showers can be expected
across the area on Sunday. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on
Saturday, decreasing slightly to the upper 60s to low 70s on
Sunday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland and
lower 60s closer to the coast. A MODERATE risk of rip currents on
Saturday will decrease to a LOW risk on Sunday. /96

(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

The zonal to west-northwesterly upper-level flow pattern
continues through the extended period as ridging remains in place
over the Gulf and troughing remains over the northern US. A few
shortwave impulses look to move within this flow throughout the
period, with the bulk of this energy remaining just to the north
of our local area (primarily along the Tennessee River Valley). At
the surface, a warm front will continue to lift northward during
the day on Monday as high pressure begins to build over the
Florida Peninsula. This will help to maintain a southwesterly
surface wind through Wednesday before a cold front begins to
approach the region from the north. There are some model
discrepancies with regards to how far south the cold front will
make it before stalling - the GFS being the more progressive model
in pushing the front all the way down to the coast on Thursday,
whereas the ECMWF and the Canadian keep it in northern AL/MS. As
far as sensible weather, a few isolated showers will be possible
on Monday and Tuesday for the northern half of our CWA, due to the
proximity of the shortwave impulses and PWATs close to 1.5
inches. Areas south should remain dry due to the ridging in place.
Isolated to scattered showers will return to much of the area on
Wednesday and Thursday as the front begins to approach the region
(highest coverage over northern areas). Some limited instability
may try to return to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons,
and therefore added in a mention of thunder for these days.
Temperatures through Wednesday will remain well above seasonal
norms, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s and lows in
the low to mid 60s. Depending on the progression of the front,
Wednesday night and Thursday may be a touch cooler. /96

Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines over the
Gulf will be required through at least Friday. Otherwise, a light to
moderate flow will shift easterly this evening into Friday, and then
southeasterly to finish off the week. A more established light to
moderate southerly to southwesterly flow will then occur Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday. /22




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