Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 222051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...High pressure will continue to
build east over the north central gulf states through Fri. An
upper ridge over the central plains and Texas this afternoon will
shift east to just west of the MS River Valley by late Fri
afternoon. At the surface high pressure just east of the upper
ridge axis will move from the western and central gulf states this
afternoon to the se conus and Fl Penisula by late Fri afternoon.
With this pattern a light onshore flow will begin to develop near
the surface on Fri setting to the stage for warmer conditions and
better moisture return in the lower levels of the boundary layer
over the weekend. Aloft a northwest flow will continue to diminish
slowly through Fri afternoon. Better clouds are noted by late Fri
with mostly scattered to possibly broken high clouds from the
west northwest, along with a few scattered low clouds generated
from the weak onshore flow by late Fri afternoon.

With light winds near the surface by early this evening and
overnight combined with mostly clear skies through the night expect
another cool night for all locations in the forecast area. For Fri
with plenty of sunshine most of the day and better subsidense over
the region high temps will rebound to near seasonal levels by
afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s
for most inland areas and the mid 40s to near 50 near the coast.
Highs Fri will climb to the low to mid 70s for most inland
areas and the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...The large upper
trough over the western Atlantic will continue to pull east away
from the region as an upper ridge extending from the southern
plains to south central Canada shifts eastward. An upper level
shortwave moving quickly southeast on the heels of the upper
ridge will breakdown the northern portion of the ridge, reaching
the mid Atlantic states by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a highly
amplified upper ridge will build from the lower Mississippi River
region to southeast Canada by the end of the short term.

A surface high pressure ridge across the eastern conus will
slowly shift southeastward while a surface low pressure area
forming over the central plains on Friday moves east to the
Carolinas by Sunday morning, followed by a strong surface high
pressure ridge building along the eastern seaboard.

It will remain dry through Saturday evening with surface high
pressure and a dry airmass persisting across the region, followed
by isolated to low-end scattered light rain showers north of
Highway 84 late Saturday night through Sunday night close to the
surface low. Temperatures will climb back above normal by the end
of the week. /22

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The upper shortwave is
forecast to be absorbed into a massive upper low pressure area
over the western Atlantic early next week, while the upper ridge
shifts eastward over the eastern conus. Meanwhile, the strong
surface high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard will
persist through mid week. A weak frontal boundary across the area
will allow isolated light rain showers to develop from time to
time Monday through mid week, followed by increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday as an upper level trough and
surface low approach the region from the west. /22


.MARINE...High pressure will continue to settle over the northern
gulf this afternoon and tonight leading to a light offshore flow
through early Fri morning. A light east to southeast flow will
develop on Fri, then shift south to southwest and increase late
Fri night through Sat afternoon, in response to an area of low
pressure tracking eastward over the middle part of the country. A
light to moderate onshore flow will continue into early next week
as high pressure continues to build over the western Atlantic and
eastern gulf. A moderate to strong southeast flow and elevated
seas are expected later in the week in response to a deep area of
low pressure approaching from the west. 32/ee


Mobile      43  72  57  78  63  79  61  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  10  20
Pensacola   46  70  58  76  64  77  61  72 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  10  20
Destin      49  68  59  74  65  75  62  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  10  20
Evergreen   39  74  50  80  62  80  57  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  39  75  52  79  60  79  60  74 /   0   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Camden      40  74  51  80  61  78  57  67 /   0   0   0  10  20  30  30  20
Crestview   38  73  50  78  62  80  57  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  10  10




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