Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 161214 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
714 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...Showers and storms will increase in coverage
throughout the morning and afternoon hours. Some variable, strong
and gusty winds expected near the stronger storms, otherwise a
general light southeast to south wind flow expected. Prevailing
VFR conditions are expected outside of brief localized MVFR (or
perhaps brief IFR) ceilings and vsbys near showers and storms. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...An upper closed low
pressure area over the northern Great Plains will move eastward
across the midwest states through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak upper
level trough over our region will persist over the next 24 hours.
A surface ridge of high pressure across the southeast states and
northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place, keeping a light
moist southerly wind flow across the forecast area.

We are getting an early start to convection as shower and
thunderstorm activity has been increasing across the north central
gulf after midnight, and has already begun moving onshore. This
precipitation will increase in coverage throughout the morning
hours, and expect numerous to definite showers and thunderstorms
along and east of I-65 by noon, with scattered coverage well west of
I-65 developing mainly in the afternoon. The ongoing late
afternoon/early evening shower and thunderstorm activity will
decrease in coverage by mid evening. However, the shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase in coverage again late
tonight across our southern zones as over-running increases. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of producing periods of very
heavy rain. /22

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A weak upper level
ridge remains in place across the northern Gulf coast through the
period as a mid-level trough begins to dig into the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure building into the eastern Gulf from
the western Atlantic will maintain a moist onshore boundary-layer
flow across the region, maintaining PWATs around or just above
2.0 inches. Height falls associated with the mid-level trough,
coupled with daytime heating and ample moisture, will lead to a
scattered to numerous coverage in showers and storms both Friday
and Saturday. With this greater coverage in clouds and rain,
temperatures should trend a bit cooler than recent days. For the
most part, highs will only reach the upper 80s each afternoon.
Lows continue to range from the low to mid 70s each night. /49

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...A deeper mid- and upper-
level trough digs across the Great Plains and into the eastern
CONUS through the long term. This brings a cold front down into
the Deep South around midweek. Ahead of this front (Sunday
through Wednesday) a deeply moist and unstable airmass will
continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
each day. The front is then expected to move through sometime
next Thursday, potentially setting us up for a period of drier
weather to end the work week.

Currently have temperatures running right around climatology
Sunday through Wednesday, reaching the low 90s each day and low
to mid 70s each night. High temperatures could wind up trending a
few degrees cooler, however, if a greater coverage of storms and
clouds are expected as we get closer. /49

MARINE...A broad surface ridge of high pressure over the western
Atlantic will continue to stretch west over the north central and
eastern gulf through the remainder of the week. A light to
occasionaly moderate southerly wind flow will continue with this
pattern through the weekend. Winds and waves will be locally higher
in and around scattered to occasionaly numerous showers and
thunderstorms. /22




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