734
FXUS64 KMOB 240535
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Now Through Thursday Night...
A light southwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft will persist
through tonight as an upper- level ridge remains in place over
the western Atlantic. Weak shortwave energy will also continue to
move within this flow pattern aloft. The ridge finally begins to
break down on Thursday as another ridge builds over Mexico/south
central US. This will allow for flow aloft to turn more northwesterly
by Thursday night. For the rest of today, forcing from the shortwaves
aloft, along with strong destabilization, will allow for scattered
to numerous pulse-type showers and thunderstorms to continue developing
during the afternoon and evening hours. Highest chances are for interior
areas west of I-65. Not anticipating any organized severe weather
with these storms due to a lack of shear, although one or two stronger
storms, capable of producing gusty winds/small hail cannot be ruled
out. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern due to the slow motion
of these storms, so I can`t rule out one or two localized instances
of flooding. Expecting convective coverage to decrease during the
late evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating.
For Thursday, am only anticipating isolated to locally scattered showers
and storms to develop during the afternoon hours. Coverage will once
again diminish by the evening hours. Highs on Thursday will top out
in the mid 80s, with even a few upper 80s possible inland. Lows tonight
and Thursday night will only drop into the 60s. Patchy to areas of
fog, some of which could be dense, may once again develop during the
early morning hours prior to sunrise. Best probabilities for dense
fog look to be over the western Florida Panhandle and over south central
Alabama. We will monitor trends closely over the coming hours to see
if a Dense Fog Advisory will become necessary for tonight. A Moderate
Risk of rip currents today decreases to a low risk tonight and
Thursday. /96

Friday through Wednesday... No major changes expected late this
week, through the weekend, and into the early part of next week.
Isolated to scattered PoPs will be possible, mainly over northern
portions of the forecast area, during the afternoon hours through
the period with Friday and Saturday having the best chances. By
Sunday and into the early part of next week, deep layer ridging
becomes more entrenched across our area, with much lower rain
chances but still some isolated showers and storms possible inland
during the afternoon hours. It will be rather warm, with daytime
highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s, and then in the upper 80s
and lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday (hottest day still appears
to be on Sunday, with most of the interior in the likely in the
lower 90s). Daytime highs may cool very slightly, mainly in the
80s by midweek. Nighttime lows will range from low and mid 60s
over most interior locations to upper 60s and perhaps even a few
lower 70s closer to and along the coast through the period.
Rip Current Risk will be in the LOW to MODERATE range late this
week and into the middle part of next week. DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility generally prevail across the forecast
area currently. Anticipate MVFR to locally IFR to LIFR ceilings
and/or visibility to become possible as patchy to areas of fog
become develops through daybreak this morning. Any lingering fog
quickly lifts after daybreak allowing for VFR flight category to
prevail once again. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon into early evening hours once again which
could result in gusty winds and temporary flight category
reductions. Patchy to areas of fog, locally dense, become possible
once again tonight into Friday morning reducing ceiling and/or
visibility once again. Light and variable winds through daybreak
become generally southeasterly to southerly at 5 to 10 knots by
late morning into the early afternoon hours. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow pattern will
persist throughout the week and into the weekend. /96


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  84  65  84  64  88  64  89 /   0  20  10  10   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   66  81  67  81  66  84  67  86 /   0  10  10   0   0  10   0  10
Destin      68  80  68  80  67  83  70  85 /   0  10  10   0   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   61  87  62  87  60  89  62  90 /  20  30  10  20  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  62  84  62  88  62  89  63  91 /  20  30  20  30  10  20  10  20
Camden      61  85  62  85  62  87  63  87 /  30  30  20  30  10  20  10  20
Crestview   60  86  61  87  60  90  62  91 /   0  20  10  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  84  64  88  64  89  65  86 /  10  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   67  81  66  84  67  86  67  82 /  10   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Destin      68  80  67  83  70  85  70  82 /  10   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   62  87  60  89  62  90  62  87 /  10  20  10  20  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  62  88  62  89  63  91  63  90 /  20  30  10  20  10  20  10  10
Camden      62  85  62  87  63  87  63  86 /  20  30  10  20  10  20  10  20
Crestview   61  87  60  90  62  91  62  87 /  10  10   0  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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