550
FXUS63 KMQT 121333
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
933 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extended stretch of above normal temperatures through the
  forecast period with highs mainly in the upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Apart from haze from upstream wildfires, skies are starting off
sunny this morning with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Minor
adjustments have been made to temperatures over the next few hours
to account for somewhat cooler values at the moment, but we should
still be able to see highs well into the 70s to lower 80s across
most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous mid-level trof
over sw Canada and the nw U.S. Downstream, ridging prevails over the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. A shortwave moving over Hudson
Bay is supporting tsra about 200 miles to the nne of Lake Superior
along its associated cold front. The southern end of that front is
moving over western Lake Superior attm. Closer to home, under the
ridging, it`s been a quiet night across Upper MI. Winds are light to
calm. Combined with the lengthening nights of Sept and somewhat
elevated dwpts for this time of year, patchy fog, mostly shallow,
has developed. The fog is more likely to be found near
rivers/streams, inland lakes and swampy areas as is typical for this
time of year. Temps range from the low/mid 50s F at traditional
interior cool spots to the mid 60s F at some locations near the
Great Lakes.

Patchy, shallow fog will quickly burn off after sunrise. Otherwise,
plan on another day of late summer warmth for Upper MI. Cold front
will continue shifting se today. With parent shortwave so far to the
n and moving farther away, front, weak as it is, will be weakening
further, essentially dissipating, and it will not introduce any
cooling. What it will do is ensure a lake breeze aided ne wind
develops today off of Lake Superior as sfc high pres builds along
the Hudson Bay shore of northern Ontario. So, temps at most
locations near the lake shouldn`t rise out of the 70s F. Southerly
winds off of Lake MI should hold lakeside temps to the 70s F there
as well. Inland, expect late summer warmth with highs in the low/mid
80s F. Although there will be little if any cloud cover, high clouds
if anything, expect hazy skies to prevail as a layer of wildfire
smoke aloft, generated from western U.S. fires, continues to stream
over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Remains of Francine will be over the lower Mississippi Valley 00z
Fri with a trough in the Rockies and a ridge over the upper Great
Lakes. Troughing pushes into the northern Plains 00z Sat. The ridge
gets pushed into the eastern U.S. 00z Sun as a broad trough remains
over the western half of the U.S. into the northern Plains and this
lasts into 12z Sun. Ridge runner shortwave comes into the area
Saturday into Saturday night. Being on the periphery of the ridge
and in the ring of fire, it is possible to have slight chance pops
in for the ridge runner moving through and kept some pops in the
forecast.

In the extended, a 500 mb trough is on the west coast, a closed 500
mb low is over the sern U.S. and a strong ridge is in the eastern
U.S. 12z Sun. The U.P. is on the periphery of the ridge and a
shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies 12z Sun. By 12z Mon,
ridging builds back north into the upper Great Lakes region. By 12z
Tue, troughing has moves into the Rockies with the ridge firmly
entrenched in the upper Great Lakes region. Pattern changes little
through 12z Thu except a shortwave ejects out of the Rockies trough
and heads into the northern plains. Temperatures will be above
normal for this forecast period. Models continue to put in small
chance pops almost every period which seems a bit overdone, but area
is on periphery of ridge which could render a slight chance anyway.
Still would not be surprised if it does not end up being dry
underneath that strong upper ridge. Did make a few adjustments to
the pops to remove them across the east half of the cwa and kept
them in far west as closer to periphery of ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR will likely prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period. There
are some concerns for fog development tonight, mainly at SAW due to
winds just off of the sfc becoming sse off of Lake Michigan. Low
confidence on this occurring, so no mention in fcst yet. Winds will
be light, under 10kt, at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

With a more stable airmass over the lake alongside high pressure
ridging dominating the forecast, winds are expected to remain at or
below 20 kts. Rather benign prolonged period for this time of year
for Lake Superior for winds.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07