894
FXUS66 KOTX 240544
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
944 PM PST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures this weekend with overnight lows in the
  teens to low 20s

- Quiet weather pattern through next week

- Temperatures moderating for the middle to end of next week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder temperatures are expected this weekend with overnight
lows in the teens to lower 20s. A quiet weather pattern is
expected through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: A drier northerly flow is expected to
bring a continued trend of clearing skies heading into the
weekend. This will result in colder overnight low temperatures in
the teens to low 20s. There are a couple initial exceptions to the
clearing, with one area being the Cascade valleys in Chelan
county, as well as the Palouse/LC Valley where it is taking longer
for the dry air to mix down. Higher resolution models do hang
onto some boundary layer moisture into Saturday morning for these
two areas which is expected to lead to continued areas of
stratus, as well as patchy freezing fog overnight into Saturday
morning. But eventually the dry air should win out as precipitable
water values hover around 40-60 percent of normal through the
weekend.

Monday through Friday: Ensembles show a split flow pattern with
incoming weak fronts stretching and falling apart as they track
into Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Thus precipitation
chances are low through the week, with a 20-30% chance limited to
near the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle mountains starting on
Wednesday. These weak systems however will help moisten the low
levels as the lower level flow switches from north to west and
southwest. This has the potential to bring some increase in
boundary layer moisture with areas of low clouds and fog during
the overnight and morning hours. Although at the same time the
passing mid level clouds will help mitigate this, leading to
overall low confidence in precise mixing heights and air
stagnation potential next week.

Longer range outlook going into the first week of February
heavily favors a mild weather pattern. Thus for the next two
weeks the outlook for both lowland and mountain snow looks
bleak. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: While dry air has resulted in clear skies across most
TAF locations, the boundary layer will moisten through the TAF
period, leading to high scattered and broken decks by 09Z. MWH,
EAT, and LWS look to remain at VFR status through the next 24
hours. A stratus deck has lingered around KPUW and has filled in
further, dropping ceilings to IFR and anticipated to stay that
way through much of the TAF period until 03Z, when ceilings will
improve to MVFR. Enough models show visibilities dropping for
PUW that BR and FZFG were put in starting at 12Z, and will
improve by 17Z. With boundary layer moisture remaining
throughout the day, models pick up on lowered ceilings for GEG,
SFF, and COE tomorrow morning just after this TAF period ends.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Alternate
scenario is that the stratus lingering around PUW will move into
the GEG area and bring down ceilings for a few hours this
morning, but confidence is low on this. Moderate confidence in
continued VFR conditions for all sites but PUW. Another
alternate scenario is stratus filling in enough to lower
ceilings for LWS, though this is also low confidence. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        17  28  17  30  20  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  29  16  31  19  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        19  28  19  32  24  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       22  32  21  36  26  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       15  29  15  29  17  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      16  27  18  29  19  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        16  26  15  32  21  36 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     19  33  18  34  22  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      23  33  22  31  25  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           20  33  19  31  22  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$