746
FXUS61 KCAR 070013
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
713 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly lifts northeast Friday night through
Saturday and Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in later Sunday
into early Monday. A weak low approaches later Monday, with
another one on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

7 PM Update...
Current radar shows a few showers continuing to linger over
northern Maine as we remain in the warm sector of the occluded
low to our north. As a result of the strong warm air advection
dense fog has developed over much of the area and is expected to
persist through the evening hours before cooler, drier air
works its way in from the west. Issued a dense fog advisory
valid through 10 PM to account for the expected difficult travel
conditions.

Previous Discussion...
Surface low pressure sits over Quebec with occlusion draped
through the CWA this afternoon. This has brought showers mainly
to an end though cannot rule out a stray shower the remainder of
the afternoon/early evening. Triple point low develops and rides
northeast along the boundary.

As it heads north rain will spread back into Downeast late this
afternoon into early evening. By midnight likely to categorical
precip moves into the eastern portion of the area. At the same
time cold air will be coming in on west winds and as moisture
moves back to the west it will turn rain over to snow. With caa
occurring through 09z expect that entire area will be all snow,
other than coastal Washington County.

Banding is expected over northeastern sections of the area as H7
low passes. All guidance has trended west with the heavy snow as
low moves up through New Brunswick. Have issued Winter Weather
Advisory for all of Aroostook County with storm total snowfall
ranging from 3 to 5 inches. Given the performance of the models
the past day or two of runs would not be surprised to see
warning criteria amounts occur. As the low deepens over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence on Friday and mixing develops in the afternoon,
strong northwest winds will kick up with gusts to 45 mph fairly
common. Open areas will experience patchy to areas of blowing
snow, leading to whiteout conditions.

Any standing water on roadways will freeze tonight as cold air
comes crashing in, resulting in a flash freeze ahead of snow
moving in. This will bring snow covering the ice underneath and
make travel and walking dangerous in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A powerful low pressure system will move northward through New
Brunswick and towards Labrador for Friday night and Saturday.
While the steady snow will have ended by Friday evening, snow
showers will continue north and west of Katahdin. Shortwaves
rotating around the low will keep the snow shower threat going
there into Saturday. Given a wind direction of 270-290 degrees,
the greatest threat for snow showers will be in the Saint John
Valley into the higher elevations of the North Woods. Wind gusts
will be strong enough for patchy blowing snow where snow showers
are falling. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the teens
north of Katahdin, with 20s to the south. Cold air advection
will limit high temperatures on Saturday. Expect teens to lower
20s north of Katahdin, with mid 20s to lower 30s to the south.
Wind chills will likely drop below zero from Katahdin northward
Saturday morning.

The low will pull further away Saturday night into Sunday, and
weak high pressure will build towards the area. This will allow
the snow shower threat to end Saturday night. Winds will also
gradually diminish, though it will remain breezy into early
Sunday. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the single
digits above zero in the North Woods, with teens elsewhere.
Highs on Sunday will remain in the 20s from Katahdin northward,
with lower to mid 30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move over the region Sunday night. This will
allow for clearing skies and light winds. Some uncertainty with
low temperatures Sunday night, as high clouds may move in late.
However, potential exists for many northern areas to drop below
zero.

A series of shortwaves will then move through the area next
week. Disagreements exist among model guidance as to the track
and strength of these shortwaves, so confidence remains low. The
first shortwave looks to impact the area later Monday into
Monday night. This could produce some light snow or snow
showers. The next one will approach later Tuesday into
Wednesday, and track over or north of the Crown of Maine. Some
light snow is possible north of this low track, with dry and
mild weather to the south. A third system could impact the
region late next week, but confidence in track and timing is low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions expected through tonight with low
cigs and patchy fog. Light rain showers continue off and on
into this evening though steady rain has now come to an end.
Expect rain to change over to steady snow late tonight and
continue through end of TAF valid time over Aroostook terminals.
Snow begins to end over Downeast Friday morning.

Gusty winds diminish overnight before increasing again from the
northwest by morning with gusts between 25-30kts late morning
into the afternoon hours.

SHORT TERM:
Friday Night & Saturday...MVFR/IFR at Aroostook terminals with
scattered -SHSN and patchy BLSN. VFR Downeast. W winds 10-15
kts, gusting 25-35 kts.

Saturday Night...Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals
early with isolated -SHSN. Otherwise VFR. W winds 10-15 kts,
gusting up to 25 kts.

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-10 kts. Gusts to 20
kts possible Sunday.

Monday Night & Tuesday...VFR early Monday night. MVFR/IFR late
Monday night with -SN or -SHSN possible. Mainly VFR Tuesday,
except MVFR/IFR at Aroostook terminals Tuesday PM with -SN or
-SHSN. W winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds briefly drop below small craft levels tonight
before ramping up again by daybreak Friday. Northwest winds will
gust to gale force throughout the day tomorrow with seas
building to between 7 to 11 feet.

SHORT TERM: Winds will remain above Gale force on all waters
through Friday night and through Saturday. Wave heights of 8 to
11 feet are expected over the outer waters, with up to 12 feet
Friday evening. Winds diminish below Gale force on the intra-
coastal waters Saturday evening, and on the outer waters by
Sunday morning. Winds and seas subside below Small Craft
Advisory criteria on all waters Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions
continue through Monday thanks to high pressure. Winds could
return to SCA levels Monday night into the middle of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MEZ001-002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for
     MEZ001-002-006.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Melanson
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Buster/Melanson/Clark
Marine...Buster/Melanson/Clark