216
FXUS61 KCAR 080028
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
728 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Dropped Cold Wx Advisory for Central and Northern Piscataquis
 for tonight.
-Dropped Gale Warning from the intracoastal zone down to SCA.
-Adjusted time of Gale Warning for the outer waters back by 4
 hours.
-Adjusted start time of Freezing Spray Advisory up by 5 hours
 for all waters.
-Increasing confidence for a period of light snowfall Tuesday
 night to Thursday. Accumulations of greater than 1 inch but
 less than 5 inches are currently favored across most of the
 area by the majority of deterministic, ensemble, and AI
 guidance.
-Updated aviation discussion.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Adjusted low temps down over the northwest tonight by 3-5 degrees
in the deeper valleys.

2) Periods of light snow and snow showers are likely from
Tuesday night through Thursday, producing a light to possibly
moderate accumulation. Warmer temperatures approaching freezing
are also expected.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Adjusted low temps down over the northwest tonight by 3-5 degrees
in the deeper valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
After temps fell to between minus 5 to minus 10 this morning
before clouds backed in from the east have lowered temperature
for tonight by a good 3-5 degrees over the northwest. Arctic
cold front looks to have made it thru central NH and will be
knocking on our door shortly. Though it appears that the bulk of
the cold air will squirt west and south of our CWA, enough
should be able to bleed over to drop temps below zero tonight
once again over the North Woods.

Winds still expected to be strong and gusty late tonight but
with an inversion setting up tonight the strongest winds will be
over the highest terrain. This will lead to wind chills
dropping to between 15 and 25 below over most of the north with
the exception of northern Somerset dropping to 25 to 30 below.
Have cancelled the Cold Weather Advisory for portions of
Piscataquis County for this reason, as widespread 25 below wind
chills do not appear likely tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Periods of light snow and snow showers are likely from Tuesday
night through Thursday, producing a light to possibly moderate
accumulation. Warmer temperatures approaching freezing are also
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Vertically stacked low pressure south of the Hudson Bay on
Tuesday will move towards the area Tuesday night, bringing an
initial surge of warm advection precipitation associated with a
warm front and developing occlusion over NH and western ME.
Models still differ in the timing and evolution, but generally
show a slowing of the upper level low with a weak surface low
developing off the coast. There is potential for a weak inverted
trough to form as well, but the thermal gradient is not
significant which would lower the magnitude of convergence and
snowfall rates. Nonetheless, plenty of maritime moisture will be
available, first from the Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, then from the Canadian Maritimes later Wednesday into
Thursday as east flow sets up. Multiple periods of light snow
are possible, with a light to moderate accumulation currently
favored from the majority of deterministic, ensemble, and AI
guidance. The spread of QPF among this guidance suggests between
slightly less than a tenth and 4 tenths of an inch of QPF, which
would translate to between 1 and 5 inches of snowfall across
the area. This is still a significant spread, so check back for
future forecast updates to narrow down accumulation potential.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Across northern areas VFR/MVFR with isolated snow showers
tonight. VFR Sunday through Sunday night. Across Downeast areas
VFR/MVFR with isolated snow showers early tonight. Otherwise,
VFR tonight through Sunday night. North/northwest winds around
10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25
knots tonight. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 to 25 knots Sunday through Sunday night.

Monday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Monday Night to Tuesday...VFR. NW winds 5-15kt.

Tuesday night to Wednesday night...VFR becoming MVFR. IFR
periods possible due to cigs/vsby. -SN/-SHSN likely. NE winds
5-10kt.

Thursday...MVFR. Tempo IFR possible in -SN/-SHSN. NW winds
5-10kt with gusts to up to 20 kt.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA level winds increase to gale force over the outer waters
after 01z tonight and remain up through Sunday morning. Expect a
brief lull back toward strong small craft conditions during the
day on Sunday before increasing once again toward gale force
over the outer waters Sunday evening. Gales remain through 05z
Monday over the outer waters before diminishing to SCA. The
intracoastal zone looks to remain at strong small craft levels
from this evening through late Sunday night. Seas will range
from 4 to 7 feet Sunday before diminishing late Sunday night. As
for freezing spray, expect moderate accumulations beginning
later this evening over all waters tonight. With winds briefly
diminishing on Sunday expect light freezing spray before
moderate freezing spray resumes Sunday evening through the
overnight hours.

Small Craft Advisory winds and moderate freezing spray are
likely to continue into Monday morning, with seas and freezing
spray decreasing below advisory levels, but wind gusts
persisting around 25 to 30 kt through Monday into Monday night
with light freezing spray. Winds fall below advisory levels
Tuesday through Wednesday with freezing spray ending.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for MEZ003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST Sunday night for ANZ050-051.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Sunday night for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...CN/MWS
MARINE...MWS