268
FXUS61 KCAR 260122
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
922 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight, then slowly cross the
region through the weekend. High pressure will move south of the
region Monday. Another low will approach Tuesday, then cross
the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
922PM Update: No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Low pressure tracks across the eastern Great Lakes tonight,
drawing a warm front north toward the Downeast coast. Aloft,
the supporting upper low also crosses the Great Lakes tonight.
Isentropic lift will help support rain expanding across the
region tonight, with the better rain chances across northern
and central portions of the forecast area. The system slowly
approaches the forecast area later Saturday while starting to
vertically stack beneath the supporting upper low. The warm
front will lift to the Downeast region Saturday before stalling,
though exactly how far north the front reaches is still
uncertain. Rain will develop across the entire forecast area
Saturday with the approaching surface/upper lows. The rain could
be heavy at times Saturday, particularly across central and
Downeast portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight
will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the lower
to mid 40s Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from
the upper 40s north to around 50 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday night, the main low will move northward along the
Maine coastline, bringing an inverted trough over the north.
This will provide a slight break in precip Saturday evening,
with rainfall returning late Saturday night. Rain rates will
then increase on Sunday morning as the low begins to move
eastward and cold air filters in behind the system, increasing
instability, primarily over the western areas. Rain could be
mixed with snow in the far western Maine mountains, but most
people across the forecast area will only see liquid
precipitation. Overall rainfall totals through the weekend will
be upwards of 1.5 inches, which will really be beneficial for
fire weather conditions and help raise river flows as well.

Rain showers will continue Sunday afternoon in the unstable air
behind the low. As the low moves eastward, showers will also
move across the forecast area and skies will clear for a dry
Monday. Temps on Sunday will be slightly cooler than normal with
the widespread rain showers and cooler air mass. However by
Monday, the return of a warmer air mass and abundant sunshine
will raise high temps into the 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather will continue Monday night and Tuesday before
another low approaches Tuesday night, increasing the chance for
precip. Temps will be unseasonably warm on Tuesday, with highs
in the upper 60s or approaching 70 for the entire area except
the Downeast coast. This will generate some strong low level
lapse rates and as the cold front approaches, the chance exists
on for a thunderstorm or two over the eastern Maine-Canada
border early Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, the cold front
will have moved through and upper level ridging will move in for
a dry Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, lowering to IFR/LIFR overnight
with developing rain. IFR/LIFR Saturday with rain and patchy
fog. Rain possibly heavy at times Saturday. East/southeast winds
around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots tonight. East/southeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts
up to around 25 knots, becoming variable around 10 knots
Saturday. Southerly low level wind shear develops Saturday
morning then persists into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
IFR/LIFR Saturday and Sunday primarily in -SHRA on
Sunday. SE winds 5-15kt w/ gusts to 25kt on Sat with N-NW winds
10-20kt on Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR conditions. Winds from the NW at
5-20kts, then shifting to the SW Monday night. Gusts 15-20kts
possible.

Tuesday night...MVFR conditions as rain showers move in. Potential
for isolated thunderstorms at far northern terminals late. Winds
from the S at 5-10kts. Gusts 15-20kts possible in the evening.

Wednesday...MVFR conditions in -SHRA, improving to VFR from W
to E in the afternoon. NW winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30
kts during the main portion of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters
starting Saturday morning. Rain and patchy fog developing
tonight, then persisting Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory from Saturday Morning through
Sunday evening across the waters. Winds gusting up to 30kt
through early Sunday morning, then subsiding. Seas 5-8ft through
Sunday evening. Visibility will be reduced in rain, drizzle and
fog from Saturday through Sunday evening. Potential for a low
end Small Craft Advisory Tuesday night through Wednesday next
week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/LF
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/LF