Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 081632
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
832 AM PST Wed Feb 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming temperatures and dry conditions persist through Friday,
with periods of gusty offshore winds occurring on Thursday and
Friday. A pattern change will occur this weekend, with noticeably
cooler temperatures, gusty onshore winds and chances of light
showers at times Saturday into Sunday. After brief warming on
Monday, cooler temperatures develop region-wide and gusty west to
northwest winds strengthen across the mountains, deserts and
coastal waters on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Update:
A ridge of high pressure is building off of the West Coast today.
In Southern California, wispy high clouds remain this morning,
but look to diminish through the day. Highs today will warm to 3
to 8 degrees above normal, with temperatures reaching the
upper-60s for coastal areas, the low- to mid-70s for the valleys,
the upper-40s and 50s for the mountains and the mid-70s for the
lower deserts. Further warming is expected on Thursday- the
warmest day of the week- with highs reaching values as much as
10-15 degrees above normal. No updates are needed for the forecast
this morning.

Previous Discussion (Issued 552 AM PST Wed Feb 8 2023)...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
High pressure aloft off the West Coast will move inland on
Thursday and weaken across southern California on Friday. Lower
level offshore flow will be a little stronger for Thursday and
Friday with periods of gusty northeast to east winds along and
below the coastal slopes of the mountains. Winds could be near
advisory strength at times for Thursday and Friday with stronger
gusts to 50 to 55 mph and isolated gusts to 60 to 65 mph. The
warming trend will continue through Thursday with the greater
warming on Thursday for coastal and western valley areas. Friday
will be a little cooler as high pressure aloft weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
A low pressure system approaching the coast of northern and
Central California on Friday will move slowly southeastward over
the weekend from near Point Conception on Saturday to northern
Baja on Sunday. There continue to be some relatively minor track
differences among the models as it tracks across southern California.
However, given the proximity to the coast, slight deviations in
the track would affect the precipitation potential.

A track a little more inland would be drier while one a little
farther to the west would have a little greater precipitation
potential. The forecast remains close to NBM with precipitation
chances mostly 30 percent or less for late Saturday through Sunday
and amounts fairly light. Besides the precipitation chances, it
will be much cooler for the weekend with high temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Monday should be drier and a little warmer as weak high pressure
aloft moves across southern California. For Tuesday, another low
pressure system from the northwest on a more inland track should
bring cooling and a round of stronger west to northwest winds for
the mountains and deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
081630Z...Mostly clear skies and unrestricted vis through tonight.
Gusty north to northeast winds will increase after 06Z Thursday and
continue into Thursday. Winds will be strongest over and west of the
mountains and below passes. Peak gusts of 35 to 45 kt expected.
Areas of LLWS and mod up/downdrafts expected west of the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. Winds
and seas will increase for the end of the week, peaking on Saturday
before decreasing Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A large west-northwest swell from 290 degrees will produce elevated
to locally high surf Saturday and Sunday. Surf will peak at 6-7
feet. Highest surf will occur on west facing beaches in San Diego
County.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EA/17
AVIATION/MARINE...CO


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