048
FXUS65 KSLC 062304
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
404 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another quick moving storm will impact the region
through Saturday morning. Drier conditions will build into the
area later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...An strong shortwave trough
is approaching the Pacific Coast. Deep southwest flow ahead of
this low remains across the Great Basin. As the upper level low
shifts eastward over the next 24 hours, a cold front will cross
into northern Utah later Friday morning. This cold front will
quickly shift across the state through late Friday evening.

This cold front is expected to become briefly frontogenetic over
northern Utah before forcing shifts to the east. Ahead of this
front, gusty southwest winds are likely for much of the state. The
strongest winds can be expected in the usual locations of
southwest and west central Utah, with gusts to 55 mph likely
(greater than 80 percent) Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Isolated wind gusts to 60 mph are probable, especially in normally
wind-prone areas and exposed areas.

The Tooele and Rush Valleys are another location where wind gusts
to 55 mph are expected (greater than 70% chance), especially in
the early morning to early afternoon period. Cannot rule out a few
hours of wind gusts up to 55 mph or so near Wendover behind the
cold front.

Finally, nearly all 12Z HREF members support wind gusts in excess
of 60 mph across Uinta County, WY Friday morning into Friday
afternoon.

Issued a High Wind Warning for Uinta County, WY and the Tooele
Valley and Rush Valley to the wind advisory. Note that it is also
likely blowing dust will impact much of western and northern Utah
by later Friday morning and continue through frontal passage.
Winds across Uinta County, southwest and west central Utah will
decrease beyond the cold front.

Speaking of the cold front, expect mainly mountain areas to see
pre-frontal, warm air advection precipitation. With the cold
front, current guidance suggests a well forced, narrow band of
heavy precipitation that is quickly subsident in it`s wake across
northern Utah...though with forcing lifting out of the area, this
front will likely slow down a bit and weaken over central Utah.
This may allow central and parts of southern Utah to see
precipitation for a longer duration overnight Friday night. For
now, held off on any winter weather advisories as amounts are
marginal. The current deterministic NBM is sitting around the
90-95th percentile in the probabilistic NBM. Like the last event,
if this event busts across northern Utah, it will likely bust on
the drier side.

Any precipitation will end Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...Following the Friday cold
front, conditions will be more seasonal for Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for much of Utah, 10-15F
cooler than Friday for the north and 5-10F cooler for the south.
Conditions will dry quickly behind the front, so it is unlikely
that anything more than isolated or scattered snow showers will
last into the weekend. Mountain snow accumulation through Saturday
will generally be 1" or less. Mostly dry conditions will last
through Sunday and Monday with a near zonal flow throughout
southwest Wyoming and Utah.

Models and ensembles are in good agreement on a storm system
tracking into southwest Wyoming and Utah Tuesday. This will be a
positively-tilted trough and be rather cold, with models bringing
700 mb temperatures of around -18C. Moisture will be lacking with
the trough, so most precipitation be will be near the front and
then with orographic enhancement following the boundary. The
strong frontal boundary will bring valley low temperatures into
the single digits and teens Wednesday, with highs mainly in the
30s.

There is more uncertainty from Thursday into the weekend on a
longwave trough. The main theme from ensembles is with the storm
track from the eastern Pacific, which would come with more
moisture and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...A light northerly lake breeze continues
through this afternoon, switching to southerly around 03z Friday.
Expect gradually increasing mid-to-high level cloud coverage
through the remainder of the day. Southerly winds increase early
Friday morning ahead of a cold front passage on Friday afternoon.
A brief period of rain and subsequent CIG reductions is expected
to accompany the frontal passage, followed by a wind shift to the
northwest behind the front.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southerly winds
continue across the southern airspace during the day with lighter
winds to the north. Conditions will stay mostly dry with a few
isolated late afternoon showers across the mountains of the far
northern airspace. Precipitation associated with a cold front
overspreads into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming early Friday
morning, increasing in coverage into southern Utah by the
afternoon.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for UTZ102.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for UTZ115-122.

WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ021.

&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson/Whitlam

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