


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
570 FXUS65 KTWC 061035 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 335 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually trend downward with temperatures reaching near normal by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Dry westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will continue today as quasi-zonal flow remains in place over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies expected through the day today with highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s (about 6 to 12 degrees above normal) with breezy southwest winds especially to the south and east of Tucson. The subtropical ridge will remain pretty much at a consistent magnitude through the weekend keeping highs in the upper 70s and low 80s across southeast Arizona before a trough off the Pacific NW makes its way inland cooling temperatures to near normal for the start of the next work week. Looking ahead into the middle of next week, ensemble and cluster analyses begin to diverge where one possible solution points to a follow-up trough reinforcing chances for additional cooling and perhaps measurable precipitation. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z. Mostly SKC conditions expected today across southeast Arizona with FEW-SCT Cirrus clouds AOA 19 kft AGL gradually creeping in after 07/03Z. For KTUS, SFC winds becoming NWLY after 06/19Z at 7-11 kts & SELY after 07/03Z with speeds AOB 7 kts. For KOLS & KDUG, SFC winds becoming SWLY after 06/19Z at 11-14 kts gusting to around 20 kts & VRBL after 07/04Z AOB 4 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected this afternoon across much of southeast Arizona, especially in areas exposed to southwest flow and ridge tops. Temperatures will remain well above normal with minimum relative humidity values of 8 to 14 percent. These dry conditions are expected to remain through the weekend, with slightly higher values in far western Pima county. The National Fire Danger Rating System includes areas of southern Arizona, portions of Santa Cruz, Cochise, eastern Pima and southern Graham counties, in a High fire danger risk. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson