Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
527 FXUS65 KTWC 072126 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 226 PM MST Fri Aug 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Today marks the halfway point of the 2026 Monsoon. Expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms over the next week across southeast Arizona with day to day variability in coverage. High temperatures through Sunday will run 5 to 8 degrees above normal, then around normal next week. && .DISCUSSION...A weak easterly wave is moving through Cochise County producing mid to high level clouds. This feature will track across far southern Arizona this afternoon and evening providing a little extra upper level support for storms. The cloud cover does introduce some uncertainty in the extent of storm coverage, especially in Cochise County. Hi-res guidance shows initial storm development over the White Mountains and Sky Islands as well as Santa Cruz County early to mid-afternoon with storms progressing westward into the lower elevations late afternoon into the evening. Cochise County may miss out on initial development, but a couple CAMs show storm activity moving in from New Mexico late this evening. The atmospheric environment will support isolated severe wind gusts and this is backed up by the HREF showing a 10 percent probability for wind gusts 50 kts or greater from Tucson eastward late this afternoon and evening. PWAT values will be right around normal with locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a threat as well, especially over areas that have seen rainfall over the past few days. High temperatures will be 4-6 degrees above normal as 500 mb heights begin to increase over Arizona. High temperatures warm a couple more degree this weekend becoming 5-8 degrees above normal with Saturday likely being the warmest day. This will lead to pockets of Major HeatRisk in Tucson, the Gila River Valley, and western Pima County. Models shift storm activity a little further west with scattered coverage between Ajo and Highway 191. Areas along the AZ/NM border will likely see reduced storm activity. Ensembles show a slight reduction in moisture along the AZ/NM border with PWAT values dropping to 80 percent of normal. Expect normal monsoon hazards with isolated severe wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Next week heights decrease which results in temperatures falling to around normal Monday through the end of the work week. The ridge stays in a favorable position next week with thunderstorm chances expanding in coverage to cover most of southeast Arizona. Expect continued daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms next week. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 09/00Z. Isolated to scattered TSRA can be expected between 07/21z and 08/05z with gusty erratic winds of 35-45 kts possible with any thunderstorm. Best chances will be at KOLS. Cigs will be SCT- BKN 8k-12k ft AGL with another SCT-BKN layer AOA 20k ft AGL this afternoon and evening from Tucson south and eastward, slowly dissipating overnight. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and evening. SFC winds light and terrain driven after 08/05Z. Expect another round of convection Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next week with some variation in coverage each day. Minimum relative humidity values will be 15-30 percent through the weekend then 20-40 percent next week with temperatures 2-8 degrees above normal. Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson