Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
570
FXUS65 KTWC 061035
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually trend
downward with temperatures reaching near normal by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will continue
today as quasi-zonal flow remains in place over the Desert
Southwest. Mostly sunny skies expected through the day today with
highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s (about 6 to 12 degrees
above normal) with breezy southwest winds especially to the south
and east of Tucson.

The subtropical ridge will remain pretty much at a consistent
magnitude through the weekend keeping highs in the upper 70s and low
80s across southeast Arizona before a trough off the Pacific NW
makes its way inland cooling temperatures to near normal for the
start of the next work week.

Looking ahead into the middle of next week, ensemble and cluster
analyses begin to diverge where one possible solution points to a
follow-up trough reinforcing chances for additional cooling and
perhaps measurable precipitation. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.

Mostly SKC conditions expected today across southeast Arizona with
FEW-SCT Cirrus clouds AOA 19 kft AGL gradually creeping in after
07/03Z.

For KTUS, SFC winds becoming NWLY after 06/19Z at 7-11 kts & SELY
after 07/03Z with speeds AOB 7 kts.

For KOLS & KDUG, SFC winds becoming SWLY after 06/19Z at 11-14 kts
gusting to around 20 kts & VRBL after 07/04Z AOB 4 kts.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are expected this afternoon across much of
southeast Arizona, especially in areas exposed to southwest flow and
ridge tops. Temperatures will remain well above normal with minimum
relative humidity values of 8 to 14 percent. These dry conditions
are expected to remain through the weekend, with slightly higher
values in far western Pima county. The National Fire Danger Rating
System includes areas of southern Arizona, portions of Santa Cruz,
Cochise, eastern Pima and southern Graham counties, in a High fire
danger risk.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson