741
FNUS73 KABR 291145
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Crystal Springs RX...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
645 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...today should be dry. And there should be plenty of
sunshine throughout the day. Wind will maintain a southeast
(130-150 degrees) direction today, but the speed will steadily
increase. At ignition time, wind speed should be generally light,
below 10 mph. However, by mid afternoon (2-4PM), sustained
southeast winds will increase to closer to 15 mph with gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph possible. Afternoon relative humidity values
should dry out into a 35 to 40 percent range.

Outlook...there is a cold front passing through the burn site late
in the day on Thursday, switching the wind around to a west
direction. Until then, breezy to windy south to southeast winds
are expected to persist. Also, leading up to this frontal
passage, precipitation chances including thunderstorms start
showing up Thursday morning, continuing into late Thursday
evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-5100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (74800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  63  66  67  69  70  72  72
RH..............60  54  48  47  42  42  38  39
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   10  12  12  13  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.13  16  17  18  20  20  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......400-4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   2   5   7   10  12  20  31  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............71  70  68  63  60  59  58  57  57  57  56  56
RH..............41  42  47  56  60  60  62  64  62  64  69  69
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..14  14  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  15  16  17
20 FT wind gust.21  21  21  21  21  22  22  23  24  24  25  26
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then rain showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1000, then 2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 21 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (71600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49  56  60  71  78  81  83  85  86  87  88  89
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  40  40  40  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60
Temp............56  57  60  62  64  66  68  69  69  70  70  69
RH..............69  69  67  67  67  65  63  63  66  63  63  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..18  18  18  20  21  21  21  21  21  20  18  17
20 FT wind gust.28  28  29  30  31  31  31  31  30  29  28  26
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  FR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Brett Blank
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415164.2/ABR
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brett.blank@state.sd.us