296
FXUS61 KAKQ 010521
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
121 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area tonight into Saturday with
dry conditions expected. A weak low system will bring the chance
for showers and a few storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm and
more humid conditions are expected by the mid to late portion of
next week with the potential for daily scattered showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Chilly start to the day.

- Continued dry and a bit warmer today.

The latest sfc analysis indicates ~1025 mb sfc high pressure
centered over N NC. Temps as of 115 AM ranged from the upper 40s
NW to the lower 50s SE with mid-upper 50s along the coast. High
pressure lingers over the area today, gradually moving offshore
this evening into tonight. Given high pressure overhead and
clear skies, expect a chilly start to the day with morning lows
in the mid 40s inland, lower 50s in urban areas, and mid- upper
50s closer to the coast. However, expect a pleasant warm- up
into the lower 80s this afternoon with pleasantly low humidity
and light winds. Thin cirrus gradually increase in coverage from
W to E late this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for showers and storms late Sunday afternoon
  through Sunday night into Monday.

The latest 12Z/31 models are in decent agreement with the upper
ridge flattening and shifting off the coast on Sunday, as a
weakening shortwave traverses across the region Sunday
night/early Monday. Instability parameters are rather weak, but
with some semblance of a cold pool aloft, will maintain 30-40%
PoPs late Sun/Sun night across the north tapered to ~20% PoPs in
the south. Partly/variably cloudy Sunday with highs around 80F
NW to the mid 80s SE. Dew pts will be higher, but not exactly
humid in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The models show increasing
disagreement for Monday, with the NAM/GFS lingering precip and
moisture while the ECWMF shows more a subsidence zone developing
as the upper trough shifts off the coast. Given the upper level
pattern, will go a bit drier than the NAM/GFS but will still
have lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) for most areas. Highs
lower 80s near the coast to the mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Turning more humid with daily chances for showers and storms mid
to late week.

Aloft, weak upper ridging is expected Tuesday, gradually breaking
down mid to late week as an anomalous upper trough moves from the
upper midwest to the Great Lakes and NE/mid Atlantic. There
remains a fair amount of model spread with respect to timing and
and location of the main features, so uncertainty is still rather
high as to how much moisture reaches the local area, especially
Tue-Wed. Overall, will have PoPs lowest Tue, ramping up later
Wed through Thu. The 12Z/31 ECMWF would suggest a drier forecast
until Thu while the GFS shows at least chc PoPs Tue-Thu and dry
Friday. The forecast will follow close to the NBM given the
disagreement, favoring mainly 20% PoPs Tue, 30-50% later
Wed/Thu, and ~30% Friday. Temperatures will be near to a little
above average with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and
lows in the 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions and light and variable winds continue through
the 06z taf period. High pressure centered over the area
gradually moves offshore this afternoon. Clear skies outside of
a few thin cirrus linger through the day before cirrus thickens
overnight with BKN skies by Sun morning.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of
Sun, with a low chance for showers/storms late Sun through Sun
night (highest chance RIC-SBY). Mainly dry and VFR Mon and Tue
with a minimal chance (20% or less) of afternoon/evening
showers/storms. Unsettled weather returns from mid to late week
with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

-High pressure will build over the region this weekend with
 light offshore flow expected.

-An area of low pressure will arrive late in the weekend into
 early next week with southerly flow increasing with a chance
 for showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure that is centered over Eastern portions of the Ohio
Valley this afternoon will continue to push into the area waters
tonight and Saturday. This will continue the trend seen this
afternoon of the weakening Northerly flow, which is currently
around 15 kt on the Bay and southern coastal waters. As the high
builds eastward, expect the westerly winds to drop back to 5 -
10 kt tonight and tomorrow. By Saturday night the area of high
pressure will slide off the coast allowing the flow to turn back
to the south ahead of an approaching low pressure system that
arrives late in the weekend into Monday. This will kick the
winds back up to the 10 - 15 kt range with some showers and
thunderstorms expected.

Conditions should remain benign into the middle of next week as
high pressure build southward through the Mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday and Wednesday. The flow will turn to a northerly or
northeasterly flow, but with the pressure gradient relaxed, not
anticipating wind above 15 kt. Overall for the period not
anticipating any conditions that would require SCA headlines at
this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ESS/JKP