650
FXUS61 KALY 181950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
350 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and scattered showers diminish today north and west of
the Capital District as high pressure begins to build while
clouds linger to the south and east closer to an upper-level
disturbance. High pressure Sunday into the workweek will warm
temperatures well above normal through midweek, before a chance
for rain showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weakening surface trough continues to track across eastern
New York into western New England, resulting in light showers
extending from the eastern Catskills into southern Vermont.
Upstream observations show little in the way of precipitation
reaching the surface as surface dewpoint depressions are
generally 15 degrees or more across the region per ASOS and NYS
Mesonet stations.

A weak upper-level system offshore to the southeast has aided
in maintaining easterly flow and a relatively cool airmass with
abundant clouds upstream over much of New England. However, as
upper ridging and high pressure begin to build in from the west,
a clearing trend is expected through this evening, particularly
from the Capital District to the north and west. Temperatures
along and west of the Hudson will be near seasonal norms this
afternoon, reaching highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, while
conditions will be slightly cooler, in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
in the Taconics and western New England.

High pressure continues to increase tonight, with patchy fog
possible where skies are clearest, most likely in the Upper
Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, and within sheltered locales in the
southern Adirondacks. Light rain showers or drizzle may persist
in the Connecticut River Valley thanks to moist, onshore flow.
Temperatures fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to build
into the beginning of the workweek, yielding dry weather,
clearing skies, and a warming trend through the period.
Temperatures will rise well above normal, reaching highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s beneath partly cloudy skies on Sunday,
and mid 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Overnight lows similarly trend upward despite favorable
radiative cooling conditions, from the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Sunday night to widespread 50s across the region on Monday night
as surface dewpoints trend upward with developing southerly to
southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with summer like
temperatures. Strong upper impulse tracks across southern Canada and
the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday and there is
considerable spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the track
and timing of the upper impulse and associated cold front.

Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could reach the
southern Adirondacks later Tuesday afternoon. Then, some scattered
thunderstorms are possible along a pre frontal low level trough in
our region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Highs Tuesday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Highs
Wednesday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and lower 80s higher
terrain. Heat index values will be near actual temperatures since no
extreme humidity is expected ahead of the cold front.

The low level forcing ahead of the cold front is in question,
depending on how deep the cold advection will be behind the cold
front. Low level jet energy will be relatively strong but mainly
westerly and deep shear will be enough for some potential strong
thunderstorms. Instability ahead of the cold front should be
considerable but if the timing of the cold front is Wednesday night
to Thursday morning, then instability will be minimized. Still too
early to tell but again, strong thunderstorms possible but to early
to determine the potential for and/or magnitude of severe weather.

Cooler and drier weather Friday. Highs Thursday, timing the front
with a bit of an earlier frontal passage, in the upper 70s to lower
80s with around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday in the mid 70s
to near 80 with mid 60s to lower 70s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all
terminals through much of the period. Scattered rain showers
continue to track across portions of the region, with periods of
light rain possible at POU/PSF around 21Z Sat-03Z Sun. Upstream
observations indicate little precipitation is reaching the ground,
and therefore minimal impacts to vsbys are expected.

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the west will see a
general clearing trend, particularly at ALB/GFL, through the
remainder of the period. Sct-bkn skies at 3-5 kft will decrease in
coverage to few-sct through this evening. Patchy fog is possible
tonight where skies are clearest, most likely at GFL. With easterly
flow advecting a marine airmass into southern and eastern areas,
MVFR cigs may develop this evening at PSF and overnight at POU.

Light east to northeast winds at 10 kt or less will continue through
today, becoming calm to light and variable after 00-06Z Sun. Winds
increase out of the east to northeast again at less than 10 kt after
12-15Z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard