280
FXUS61 KALY 061106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
706 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely, especially during the afternoon and evening. Things
continue to trend cooler and unsettled for Friday through the
weekend, with a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One area of scattered showers will affect our region until
mid morning. Another band of showers in western NY/PA will
increase in coverage through the day as some instability and low
level forcing along a surface to boundary layer wind shift and
leading edge of weak cold advection track into our area.
Instability will be marginal as will shear but the low level
forcing should again, support an organized band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible in the thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms today with potential isolated damaging wind
gusts.

Highs today, with the mostly cloudy to cloudy sky, will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lower to mid 70s higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper cut off low slowly approaches tonight through Saturday
night and there are disagreements in the timing and track of
trailing upper energy merging with the upper cut off low, which
would determine where the southern edge of the upper cold pool
and associated surface based instability would enhance coverage
of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

In general, showers and thunderstorms diminish during the
evenings to just isolated coverage of showers each night through
daybreak tonight, Friday night and Saturday night. Breaks in
the clouds each night as well.

Upper dynamics and gradual cold advection Friday and Saturday
with clouds and showers becoming more widespread from late
morning through the afternoons Friday and Saturday. The best
upper dynamics and instability associated with the upper cold
pool should be in areas north of I-90, where the best coverage
of showers and storms should be. Still, solid chances for
showers and isolated storms south of I-90.

So, with some peeks of sun potentially each morning before
convective clouds form, producing a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky,
temperatures will reach the 70s to near 80 Friday and around 70
to mid 70s Saturday, with some 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We remain under the influence of the upper-low through the beginning
of the work week before high pressure builds in from the west
and forces the return to dry, warm weather...

By the start of the long term forecast period, the upper-low will be
located overhead, sprawled across the Ontario/Quebec border. Broad
cyclonic flow will help to maintain a relatively moist airmass,
leading to persistent clouds and additional rounds of showers and
possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Sunday and Monday as a
weak wind shift boundary pushes through the region. Shower and
thunderstorm activity looks to be relatively scattered in nature and
will likely remain primarily diurnally driven with daytime heating
will aid in increased instability.

By Monday night, the upper-low looks to finally make its exit from
our overhead as it continues to weaken and push further north and
east. Guidance shows there could be an additional round of showers
and possible embedded rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon as upper
troughing looks to break away from the main low pressure core and
linger across the Northeast but these would once again be relatively
scattered and light in nature. The upper trough then looks to be
forced eastward as upper-level heights increase in response to a
mid/upper-level ridge building in across the region from the
west. With surface high pressure advancing in tandem with the
upper ridge, dry conditions will be returned to eastern New York
and western New England for Tuesday night through at least
Wednesday before a shortwave disturbance threatens to disturb
the tranquility for Thursday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range primarily from the
mid/upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of upper 50s to low 60s above
1500 ft and upper 70s in the Hudson Valley. Tuesday begins the
warming trend with temperatures increasing to the upper 60s to upper
70s before we rise back into the low 70s to low and possibly mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures throughout the period will
generally range from the upper 40s to low/mid 50s through Tuesday
night with Wednesday increasing to the low to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...MVFR conditions prevail at all terminals
with the exception of KPSF whose ceiling has dropped to IFR
heights. Showers have not been as extensive thus far this
morning as what was previously expected, so outside of a stray
sprinkle or two, expect primarily dry conditions into this
afternoon. There is some uncertainty with ceiling heights today
as model soundings show some pockets of dry air cutting into the
lower levels later this morning. However, generally ceiling
heights should remain within MVFR thresholds with brief
improvements to VFR possible throughout this morning.

This afternoon, MVFR heights should steadily return as scattered
thunderstorms develop. PROB30 groups were added to the TAF
groups for expected convection between 21z-01z. Thunderstorms
could drop ceilings to IFR heights with MVFR visibilities.
However, IFR visibilities are also possible should a heavier
downpour cross into the terminals. Once convection ceases
shortly after sunset due to lack of daytime heating to drive
instability, conditions will gradually improve possibly back up
to VFR conditions.

Winds throughout the 12z TAF period will be light and variable
to start, then increasing to sustained speeds of 5-10 kt out of
the southeast by this afternoon. By the end of the 12z cycle,
winds will decrease to speeds of 2-5 kt at variable directions.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday. Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected with
localized amounts up to 2 inches. Some thunderstorms will
contain heavy rain and could produce localized ponding of water
on roadways, urban and small stream flooding and standing water
in low lying areas.

No flooding of main stem rivers is expected. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will occur Friday through the weekend but
less widespread and lighter, with additional amounts of perhaps
up to a half inch of rain through the weekend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...NAS