605
FXUS61 KALY 121948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Partial clearing will occur tonight as an upper level
disturbance departs the region. Mainly dry weather is expected
on Thursday with a warmer afternoon. Showers and some
thunderstorms will accompany a passing cold front Thursday night
through Friday with a few strong to severe storms possible. A
dry and pleasant weekend follows with summerlike heat arriving
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An expansive area of stratus/stratocumulus clouds continue to
push eastward across the region ahead of the passage of an
upper- level shortwave resulting in a partly/mostly cloudy
afternoon. While an isolated shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled
out, most areas will remain dry through this afternoon.

Weak ridging builds in tonight which should allow clouds to
partially clear. Light to calm winds may result in some ideal
radiational cooling conditions. There is some uncertainty on
whether or not any patchy low clouds or fog develops overnight.
Will monitor trends for this. Otherwise, quiet weather continues
with lows falling back into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper-level ridging will be in place on Thursday with
surface high pressure located to our south and east. This will
result in a southerly low-level flow advecting in a warmer air
mass. 850 hPa temperatures will rise to around +15C. Partly to
mostly sunny conditions will result in highs rising into the 80s
in the valleys and the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations.

An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to
approach the region starting Thursday night with a prefrontal
trough axis head of the cold front. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder are possible for areas north and west of Albany late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front on Friday. A
general consensus is that areas just to the south and east of
Albany will be most favored for some strong to severe
thunderstorms with the cold front already crossing areas farther
north and west by the midday hours. SBCAPE values may be in the
1000-1500 J/kg range in the warm sector along with 40-50 kt of
0-6km shear. This could support some organized convection
capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A slight risk for
severe thunderstorms is located across areas south and east of
Albany on the Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
Precipitable water values approaching 1.50 inches could also
lead to locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will vary across the region due in part to the
passage of the cold front with values ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 80s
across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT.

Storms will depart the region Friday evening with just a few
lingering light rain showers into the overnight. Humidity levels
will begin to fall behind the front. Lows will drop back into
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A beautiful weekend is in store as Canadian high pressure builds
across the region. This will result in mostly clear weather with
near seasonable highs and low humidity. Thereafter, a strong
upper-level ridge will build across the region and bring very
warm to hot and humid weather. There remains some uncertainty
with the strength and location of the ridge, but the potential
for a period of highs in the 90s in the valleys and mid to upper
80s across the higher elevations is increasing. 500 hPa height
anomalies could reach +2 STDEV. The increase in humidity will
result in potentially dangerous feels- like temperatures over
100 degrees. There is the possibility for an upper level
shortwave or two to track up and over the ridge and bring the
potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms each day
Monday through Wednesday but the timing and track of these
remain uncertain. For now, will keep PoPs in the slight chance
to low chance range.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the period at all terminals. Persistent bkn clouds at
4-6 kft should finally begin to erode by 00-04Z Thu as the upper
low overhead exits to the east. Few-sct low clouds at 2-4 kft
may linger into Thursday morning as moisture remains trapped
beneath a stubborn low-level inversion. No vsby restrictions are
anticipated, although some valley fog/mist may develop where
substantial clearing and calm winds coincide.

Light west to northwest winds at 4-8 kt will diminish to calm or
light and variable after 00-03Z Thu. Winds increase to 4-8 kt
out of the south to southwest after 14-15Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Picard