432
FXUS61 KALY 111940
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to allow for a mostly
cloudy sky and cool conditions through this evening.  Some partial
clearing is expected for tonight into Wednesday, as the upper level
low finally starts to move away from the region.  Much warmer
temperatures are expected for Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold
front, which is expected to bring some showers and thunderstorms to
the region as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM EDT...A large and slow moving upper level low is
located over the Northeast. With the low heights and cyclonic
flow in place, widespread stratocu clouds have been in place
over all of eastern New York and western New England, along with
cool conditions. Although there has been fairly widespread
clouds, showers and sprinkles have been very isolated today, as
deep moisture is limited. With the loss of daytime heating, any
showers or sprinkles will diminish by the late evening hours,
allowing for dry weather for tonight.

During the overnight hours, the large upper level low will start
to slowly shift away from the area, moving towards northern New
England by the late night hours. Some drier air working into the
area from the west may finally allow for some breaks in the
cloud cover, especially western and valley areas. As a result,
temps should be cool tonight, with lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s (coolest in western areas where clouds will clear first).
Some patchy fog can`t be totally ruled out in sheltered areas,
but it looks fairly limited due to short nights and clouds to
start.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue shifting away from the area
slowly on Wednesday, moving towards Atlantic Canada by late in
the day. Most of the showers associated it with the upper level
low should be east of the region, although an isolated brief
shower can`t be ruled out over southern Vermont during the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, there should be more breaks in the
clouds compared to the last few days, with a partly sunny sky
over much of the area and temps reaching the mid to upper 70s in
valley areas, which will be noticeably warmer than the last few
days.

Dry and quiet weather is expected on Wednesday night as high
pressure builds into the area. Skies will be clearing out even
more and temps will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s across
the region.

On Thursday, temps will be even warmer than Wednesday, as
warming temps aloft thanks to a south to southwest low to mid
level flow allows for 850 hpa to reach +14 to +16 C. Highs
should be well into the 80s across much of the area and
dewpoints will be creeping higher and getting close to 60 for
many areas by late in the day. Skies should be fairly sunny for
most of the area, although some clouds may start to increase by
late in the day, especially for western areas.

Upper level trough will be moving across the Great Lakes on
Thursday night and will be starting to approach the area.
Surface cold front will be making its way across the eastern
Great Lakes by the late night hours. Although the best forcing
will still be west of the area, western areas may start to see
some showers and thunderstorms impacting the area during the
overnight hours, although most spots should stay dry until
Friday morning. Otherwise, it will be mild and muggy on Thursday
night with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface cold front will be making its way across the area on
Friday from west to east. Models have slightly sped up the
timing of the boundary, with the front crossing western areas
during the morning and reaching southeastern areas during the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, a warm and moist environment
should allow for some instability, with SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg
expected across southeastern areas. As a result, a line of
showers and thunderstorm is expected ahead of the front and any
thunderstorm will be capable of producing some gusty winds and
heavy downpours, as PWATs should be creeping above 1.50",
especially for areas south and east of the Capital Region. The
overall severe threat is somewhat uncertain due to the possible
earlier timing of the boundary. The recent fairly dry weather
and progressive nature of the precip should help mitigate the
overall flood threat as well, although can`t rule out any
ponding in low lying or urban areas. Temps will continue to be
fairly warm (in the 80s) ahead of the front as well.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler, less humid and drier weather
will return to the region for the weekend. High pressure will
keep dry weather in place for both Saturday and Sunday. Highs
will be in the 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Sunday. There could be some cool weather on Sat night with good
radiational cooling in place with temps down into the 40s,
especially the high terrain.

Upper level ridging will be setting up along the eastern portion
of the CONUS for next week. Temps aloft will be warming quickly.
Some models (particularly the ECMWF) have been impressive with
the strength and orientation of the ridge. Both the 12z Euro
Ensembles/GEFS have shown decent chances for max temps to reach
above 90 degrees next week within valley areas. Will go with
valley temps nearing 90 by Monday and into the low 90s by
Tuesday, with the peak of the heat perhaps mid to late week.
There is some uncertainty, though, as disturbances passing along
the northern edge of the ridge could push the ridge south, so
it`s hard to put any high confidence on exact numbers on heat
or heat index values at this time. However, guidance certainly
is suggesting the potential for above normal warmth and it`s a
good time to review heat safety, as this could be potentially
needed next week. If ridging does develop as models suggest,
precip could be below normal, thanks to the strong subsidence
in place.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday... Continued MVFR/low-VFR cigs with
unrestricted vsbys expected through the near-term period to 00Z Wed
as strato-cu deck at 2-5 kft persists beneath a subsidence
inversion. VFR conditions then prevail at all terminals as
increasing pressure tendency aids in eroding the low cloud deck,
leaving sct coverage at 6-8 kft.

Light northwest winds at 5 kt or less diminish to calm at all
terminals after 21Z Tue-03Z Wed, before increasing out of the
southwest to west at 3-5 kft after 14-16Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Picard