Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
258 FXUS61 KALY 111051 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 651 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slowly departing upper level low will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers through today, with temperatures cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth will return ahead of a cold front that could bring some showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Just made some minor adjustments based on current obs. Mostly cloudy and cool conditions to start the day, with temperatures mainly ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s early this morning. .PREV DISCUSSION[0335]...The upper level trough that has been in place for the past several days will linger for one more day today. So similar conditions are anticipated, with mostly cloudy skies and an isolated shower in some spots. Forcing will be minimal, so most of the area will be dry. Any breaks of sunshine will likely just lead to additional cloud development beneath the cold pool aloft. So will go above NBM cloud cover today for a more pessimistic forecast of mostly cloudy skies except for the far southern part of the area. Highs will be cool again, maybe 1-2 degrees warmer than Mon, but still below normal for mid June with 60s in the higher terrain to lower 70s in the Hudson Valley. The pressure gradient will be weaker today, so winds be lighter than yesterday. The upper trough will start to shift eastward into New England tonight, but with cyclonic flow still in place clouds may be slow to clear and may take until well into the night in some areas. So again will mention greater cloud cover than the NBM. Lows will be similar to recent nights, ranging from mid 40s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 50s in lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will finally exit off the New England coast on Wed with some brief short wave ridging building in. So there should be more sunshine compared to prior days. Temperatures should respond as well, as the cold pool aloft will be gone. Highs will warm back to normal levels with mid 70s to around 80 in the valleys and upper 60s/lower 70s in the mountains. Guidance indicating a low amplitude upper level disturbance approaching from the west Wed evening, and moving across our area Wed night. Due to lack of forcing/moisture, dry conditions are expected with just an increase in high/mid level clouds. A brief light shower/sprinkle can`t be ruled out though. Lows will be milder than recent nights, ranging from upper 40s in the Adirondacks to mid/upper 50s in the Hudson Valley. Heights aloft rise on Thu in wake of the disturbance passage, with short wave ridging developing. This should result in rain- free conditions and temperatures warming to above normal levels as the low level flow becomes southwesterly. Highs could reach the mid to upper 80s in lower elevations given the wind direction and change in air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) by late in the day. Heights aloft flatten out Thu night in response to a weak disturbance moving through, while farther upstream a much stronger upper level trough and associated cold front will being to approach from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. At this time it appears this system could get close enough to bring scattered showers/T-storms mainly to areas north/west of Albany before daybreak. Lows will be mild with a southerly breeze and increasing clouds, ranging from upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A brief period of unsettled conditions is expected at the start of the extended forecast period before high pressure becomes locked in over the region to bring tranquil, warm weather... Broad troughing spans much of the northeast by Friday morning with its associated upper-level low pressure system located within the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. The upper-trough will dig south and east through the region Friday with a shortwave perturbation aloft accompanying the passage of a cold front at the surface. The progression of this boundary and upper disturbance will bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. It is too early to draw upon the strength of convection Friday given uncertainties with the timing of the front, extent of available instability, and spatial coverage of showers, but with dewpoints looking to be in the upper 50s and 60s, this will be a day we continue to monitor moving forward. High temperatures Friday will look to range widely from the upper 70s to upper 80s with pockets of low/mid 70s in the SW Adirondacks and possible pockets near 90 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Upon the passage of the front by Saturday morning, atmospheric heights gradually begin to rise as the upper trough begins its exit eastward. Ridging aloft will then build in from the west as a surface anticyclone sinks in across the area from southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec. Fair weather will subsequently set in across eastern New York and western New England from Saturday through the beginning of the next work week as high pressure remains dominant across the region. There are some hints in the medium to long range models that a weak disturbance could ride along the apex of the ridge, flattening it slightly as a result, and bring some showers and maybe some embedded rumbles of thunder mainly north of Albany. However, with some differences in model depiction of this disturbance, kept PoPs maximized at slight chance for now. As a result of the cool fropa, highs Saturday will range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s and pockets of upper 60s to low 70s above 1500 ft. A warming trend then begins starting Sunday with temperatures rising just a few degrees warmer than Saturday before Monday`s highs reach the low 80s to near 90. With the strength of the upper ridge, highs later next week could become quite warm (latest NAEFS indicating 1 to ~2 STDEVs above normal for mid June), so will continue to monitor trends as lead time decreases. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...Ceilings range from MVFR to VFR across the terminals this morning with KALB and KGFL at VFR and KPOU and KPSF at MVFR. Conditions are anticipated to remain steady throughout the day at KGFL and KALB with gradual improvements to VFR at KPOU and KPSF later this morning/this afternoon. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, though confidence is low in whether precipitation will reach terminal vicinities. That said, showers should be light, so if rain ends up being observed at any of the terminals, no impact to ceiling or visibility is expected. VCSH was added to the TAF groups to account for the nearing of these showers. Otherwise, no impactful weather is expected during this cycle. Winds throughout the period will be light primarily out of the northwest at sustained speeds of 2-5 kt. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Gant