014
FXUS61 KALY 101417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1017 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will remain in place through
Tuesday, bringing cool temperatures, periods of clouds and
isolated to widely scattered showers at times. Coverage of
showers will be less than the past few days though. Drier and
warmer weather is expected on Wednesday, as the upper level low
moves out and is replaced by a building ridge of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1017 AM EDT...Large upper level trough remains centered
over Atlantic Canada. The cyclonic flow has been allowing for
fairly widespread cu/stratocu this morning, especially for areas
north of the Capital Region. While far southern areas are still
seeing partly sunny skies, most of the region is mostly cloudy
to overcast and a good deal of cloud cover is expected through
the day today. Although radar imagery still shows dry weather
over much of the region, a few showers are starting to work
their way into the Adirondacks from the North Country.

Another disturbance (fairly weak) pinwheeling around the main
upper low is expected to move into the northern half of the area
this afternoon. This will bring isolated to widely scattered
showers, mainly to the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and southern
Greens. Very little instability, so will not mention any thunder
today. A cool airmass will be in place(850mb temperature
anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV), so highs will be below normal
with upper 50s/lower 60s in the mountains and upper 60s/lower
70s in lower elevations. It will be breezy, with NW winds
gusting 15-25 mph at times.

Tonight looks to be fairly quiet with the disturbance tracking
east into New England, so any leftover showers early in the
evening should dissipate after sunset. There will still be
varying cloud cover under the upper level trough, but enough
breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to cool into the mid
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will still be in place on Tue, but no
significant disturbances are expected to move through. So while
there could still be a few diurnally driven showers developing
in the afternoon, coverage should be mainly isolated. The air
mass will modify somewhat, with highs only expected to be
slightly below normal ranging from mid 60s to mid 70s.

Dry conditions in store for Tue night with surface high
pressure building in. The trough aloft, while still in place,
will be weakening. With appreciable clearing expected, lows
should range from the mid 40s in the Adirondacks to mid 50s in
the Hudson Valley.

The upper trough finally kicks out to the east on Wed, as short
wave ridging builds in from the west during the day. Subsidence
will lead to dry conditions, with temperatures warming to
slightly above normal levels for highs Wed afternoon. Dewpoints
forecast to be in the 50s, so it will not be humid.

Dry/tranquil conditions expected Wed night, with surface high
pressure in place. Lows will be milder than recent nights, but
still comfortable for sleeping with mainly 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday to start the
long term, ahead of a cold front/upper level shortwave
approaching from the Great Lakes. Chances for
showers/thunderstorms increase Thursday night into Friday with
forcing/height falls overspreading the region ahead of these
features. Depending on ultimate timing of front and stregthening
mid/upper level winds, there could be some stronger
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening across portions of the
region.

Some showers/thunderstorms could linger into Friday night, with
fair weather and seasonable temperatures/lower humidity levels
returning for next weekend as high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes region.

Daytime temperatures Thursday/Friday should reach 85-90 within
valley areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain
areas, although Friday temperatures are highly dependent on
timing of frontal system and any showers/T-storms. Maximum heat
indices may reach the lower 90s in some valley areas south of
Albany on Friday. High temperatures Saturday/Sunday generally in
the mid 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and upper 60s to lower/mid
70s across higher elevations. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s
Friday morning, cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s
Saturday/Sunday mornings in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z/Tue, the area will remain under the influence of an
upper level trough. Areas of strato-cumulus clouds with Cigs of
6000-8000 FT AGL will prevail through the TAF period. However,
a period of lower Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL are expected through
15Z/Mon, with pockets of MVFR Cigs possible during this time
period at KALB and especially KPSF.

Additional MVFR Cigs may develop after 08Z/Tue at KPSF, and
possibly KALB.

Isolated to scattered rain showers will develop this afternoon
at KGFL, KALB and KPSF, which could produce brief periods of
MVFR conditions. However, overall probability impacting KGFL and
KALB too low to include mention at this time.

Light/variable winds will become southwest to west at 5-10 KT
by mid morning with some gusts up to 15-20 KT possible. Winds
will then veer slightly into the west/northwest this afternoon
at similar speeds, then will decrease to 10 KT or less shortly
after sunset.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL