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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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427 FXUS61 KALY 101940 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slowly departing upper level low will continue to allow for periods of clouds and spotty showers through Tuesday, with temperatures a little cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth will return to the region ahead of a front that could bring some showers and thunderstorms for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 340 PM EDT...A large slow moving upper level low continues to be centered over Atlantic Canada. This closed off upper level low will only be slowly making eastward progress for tonight. With this storm system still close enough to the region, the moist cyclonic flow has been allowing for fairly widespread cu/stratocu clouds today. There have been a few spotty light rain showers and sprinkles for northern areas, but rainfall has been very light and brief. Through the evening hours, a few spotty showers will continue, mainly for northern and eastern areas. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy through the early evening hours. With the cool temps in place aloft, mixing has been allowing for breezy conditions as well, with some westerly winds gusting 20-30 mph at times. With the loss of heating, any lingering showers will start to diminish for tonight. There may be some more breaks in the cloud cover for tonight, especially for valley areas. Winds will start to diminish as well. With some partial clearing and diminishing wind, temps will be cool for tonight. Valley areas will fall into the lower 50s, with 40s across the high terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Our region will continue to be under the influence of an upper level trough on Tuesday. While the main upper level low will be lifting out, another weak disturbance that rotates into the Northeast will also become closed off. Moisture is lacking, but a few spotty sprinkles or showers can`t be totally ruled out during the afternoon hours thanks to low heights in place and cyclonic flow aloft. Most areas should stay dry, though. Temps will still be a little on the cool side (although maybe not quite as cool as Monday) with valley highs in the low to middle 70s. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some diurnal clouds. Some clearing is expected on Tuesday night, which should allow for another cool night. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s once again. The weak disturbance over the Northeast will be moving away by Wednesday. A brief shower still can`t be totally ruled out over southern VT on Wednesday in the afternoon hours, but most of the shower activity on Wednesday will be east or northeast of the region. With the rising heights and warming temps aloft, highs will be closer to normal on Wednesday, with max temps well into the 70s to near 80. Dewpoints still look fairly comfortable in the 50s. Sky cover should be partly sunny for the entire region on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected into Wednesday night. However, temps won`t be as cool as the past few nights, with mainly mid to upper 50s for lows (still some upper 40s to low 50s in the highest terrain). Skies should be fairly clear on Wed night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure situated south of the area will be allowing for dry weather for Thursday. The flow aloft will be fairly zonal, although the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest, so there will be some warming temps aloft. As a result, highs on Thursday look noticeably warmer than the past few days, with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints getting into the low 60s in valley areas. The next disturbance will be impacting the region for Thursday night into Friday. The timing is still a little uncertain, but a round of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact the region at some point between Thursday night and Friday. There still are some questions regarding how much instability will be in place, which will likely depend on the exact timing of the system approaching from the west. Some downpours may accompany some of the heaviest showers/storms. If enough instability is in place, some gusty winds could be possible too. Otherwise, it looks mild and muggy on Thursday night with lows in the 60s and temps back into the 80s ahead of the front on Friday. Behind the front, somewhat cooler, drier and less humid weather is expected for the weekend. With high pressure in control, it looks rain-free with a mostly clear sky both days. Temps look to be in the 70s on Saturday, with upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday. Some models are suggesting a warming trend for next week as a large ridge tries to establish itself along the eastern seaboard. As a result, the week looks to start off warm and muggy, but mainly rain-free. For now, will go with temps close to the model blend on Monday with highs well into the 80s across the region. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions will largely persist through the period. Bkn strato-cu deck at 3-6 kft will continue across the region this evening, with cloud bases likely to lower to MVFR levels at PSF during the overnight period after 00-03Z Tue, while lower clouds at 2-3 kft may also reach ALB. Some isolated showers are still possible in the vicinity of GFL/PSF through 22Z Mon, though no impacts to flying conditions are expected. Skies will trend clearer after 12-15Z Tue with sct clouds at 3-4 kft expected through the remainder of the period. West to northwest winds at 8-12 kt this afternoon at all terminals may gust to 20 kt at ALB/PSF through 22-24Z Mon. Winds diminish to calm or light out of the northwest after 00-03Z Tue, remaining 5 kt or less into the day Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Picard