Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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014 FXUS61 KALY 101417 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1017 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will remain in place through Tuesday, bringing cool temperatures, periods of clouds and isolated to widely scattered showers at times. Coverage of showers will be less than the past few days though. Drier and warmer weather is expected on Wednesday, as the upper level low moves out and is replaced by a building ridge of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1017 AM EDT...Large upper level trough remains centered over Atlantic Canada. The cyclonic flow has been allowing for fairly widespread cu/stratocu this morning, especially for areas north of the Capital Region. While far southern areas are still seeing partly sunny skies, most of the region is mostly cloudy to overcast and a good deal of cloud cover is expected through the day today. Although radar imagery still shows dry weather over much of the region, a few showers are starting to work their way into the Adirondacks from the North Country. Another disturbance (fairly weak) pinwheeling around the main upper low is expected to move into the northern half of the area this afternoon. This will bring isolated to widely scattered showers, mainly to the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and southern Greens. Very little instability, so will not mention any thunder today. A cool airmass will be in place(850mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV), so highs will be below normal with upper 50s/lower 60s in the mountains and upper 60s/lower 70s in lower elevations. It will be breezy, with NW winds gusting 15-25 mph at times. Tonight looks to be fairly quiet with the disturbance tracking east into New England, so any leftover showers early in the evening should dissipate after sunset. There will still be varying cloud cover under the upper level trough, but enough breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will still be in place on Tue, but no significant disturbances are expected to move through. So while there could still be a few diurnally driven showers developing in the afternoon, coverage should be mainly isolated. The air mass will modify somewhat, with highs only expected to be slightly below normal ranging from mid 60s to mid 70s. Dry conditions in store for Tue night with surface high pressure building in. The trough aloft, while still in place, will be weakening. With appreciable clearing expected, lows should range from the mid 40s in the Adirondacks to mid 50s in the Hudson Valley. The upper trough finally kicks out to the east on Wed, as short wave ridging builds in from the west during the day. Subsidence will lead to dry conditions, with temperatures warming to slightly above normal levels for highs Wed afternoon. Dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s, so it will not be humid. Dry/tranquil conditions expected Wed night, with surface high pressure in place. Lows will be milder than recent nights, but still comfortable for sleeping with mainly 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday to start the long term, ahead of a cold front/upper level shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes. Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase Thursday night into Friday with forcing/height falls overspreading the region ahead of these features. Depending on ultimate timing of front and stregthening mid/upper level winds, there could be some stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening across portions of the region. Some showers/thunderstorms could linger into Friday night, with fair weather and seasonable temperatures/lower humidity levels returning for next weekend as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Daytime temperatures Thursday/Friday should reach 85-90 within valley areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas, although Friday temperatures are highly dependent on timing of frontal system and any showers/T-storms. Maximum heat indices may reach the lower 90s in some valley areas south of Albany on Friday. High temperatures Saturday/Sunday generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and upper 60s to lower/mid 70s across higher elevations. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s Friday morning, cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s Saturday/Sunday mornings in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z/Tue, the area will remain under the influence of an upper level trough. Areas of strato-cumulus clouds with Cigs of 6000-8000 FT AGL will prevail through the TAF period. However, a period of lower Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL are expected through 15Z/Mon, with pockets of MVFR Cigs possible during this time period at KALB and especially KPSF. Additional MVFR Cigs may develop after 08Z/Tue at KPSF, and possibly KALB. Isolated to scattered rain showers will develop this afternoon at KGFL, KALB and KPSF, which could produce brief periods of MVFR conditions. However, overall probability impacting KGFL and KALB too low to include mention at this time. Light/variable winds will become southwest to west at 5-10 KT by mid morning with some gusts up to 15-20 KT possible. Winds will then veer slightly into the west/northwest this afternoon at similar speeds, then will decrease to 10 KT or less shortly after sunset. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL