549
FXUS61 KALY 091945
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms continue this
afternoon ahead of another upper-level disturbance bringing
additional showers overnight tonight. Cool and showery weather
continues into Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before
high pressure brings a drying and warming trend later in the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Earlier steady rain is exiting eastward from New England while a
lull in the precipitation has spread across much of the region.
Beneath a mid and upper-level cold pool aloft, isolated to
scattered showers continue to the north and west nearer to the
next approaching disturbance, with some embedded thunderstorms
beginning to develop upstream over the St Lawrence Valley and
eastern Great Lakes. This shower activity will expand into the
region through this afternoon and into the evening, especially
the southwestern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and eastern
Catskills. While a wet-bulb-zero height near 8 kft was observed
in the 12z ALY sounding, the BUF sounding nearer to the cold
pool aloft from the same time showed it near 6 kft, which would
support relatively low-topped convection nonetheless being able
to generate lightning and small hail as the core of cold air
aloft moves overhead.

Temperatures remain seasonably cool today, reaching afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s
to mid 70s at lower elevations. Some breezy winds also remain
possible into this evening, particularly across areas of high
terrain and along the favored corridor for westerly flow from
the Mohawk Valley across the Capital District and into the
northern Berkshires.

A second potent upper-level shortwave will drop across the
eastern Great Lakes and track overhead later this evening and
tonight, bringing another round of enhanced rain shower coverage
to the eastern Catskills and southwestern New England, as well
as the southwestern Adirondacks thanks to additional lake
moisture, although thunderstorms should diminish with the loss
of diurnal heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will thus
continue across much of the area, with clearing expected to the
south in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills. Overnight
lows expected in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term
period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather
outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers.
Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in
the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s
at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low
50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of
the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the
southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased
breaks of sun are possible.

As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread
clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies
expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at
lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The persistent upper-level troughing of recent days finally
exits to the east on Wednesday, although a weak trailing
shortwave may result in a few showers during the day. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected through Thursday as largely zonal
flow aloft and southwesterly low and mid-level flow about
surface high pressure over the Atlantic allow temperatures to
warm well above normal. Following near-normal highs in the
upper 60s to low 80s across the region on Wednesday, hotter
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the
70s in high terrain and 80s at lower elevations. Surface
dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and
especially Friday may make for more muggy-feeling conditions as
the heat index approaches 90 degrees from the Capital District
southward along the Hudson Valley.

Guidance continues to suggest Friday may feature more active
weather as a strong upper-level trough and associated surface
cold front swing across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
Given expected temperatures and humidity, thunderstorms are
certainly possible ahead of and during the frontal passage, with
the potential for some stronger storms depending on shear
magnitude and if diurnal heating further destabilizes the
atmosphere ahead of the boundary.

Any showers or storms will exit by Saturday morning upper
ridging and surface high pressure usher in more placid weather
for the weekend. Temperatures look to trend downward toward
seasonal norms through the weekend as drier and cooler air
filter in on northwest flow beneath clearing skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The stratiform area of rain from this morning has shifted well to
our east but BKN to OVC low end VFR ceilings continue in its wake as
an upper level low persists overhead. Additional isolated showers
are tracking from west to east towards ALB, GFL, and PSF this
afternoon but given limited sunshine, we held off on mentioned TSRA
in the latest TAF update. Will monitor trends and if enough sun can
occur, some low-topped isolated thunderstorms may develop. Will
amend and add a TEMPO group for thunderstorms as needed.

An additional area of rain showers from the Southern Tier looks to
develop this evening and track over the terminals, mainly ALB,
PSF, and POU, by 00-05 UTC. GFL may remain too far north to see
additional rain showers so only included VCSH there. While VFR
ceilings and visibility should occur during any rain showers,
ceilings look to deteriorate by or shortly after 06 UTC as low-
level moisture remains trapped underneath the low-level
inversion.

More breaks of sun should occur through the afternoon leading to SCT
sky coverage. With increased sun, west to northwesterly winds should
increase by 19-22 UTC with gusts reaching up to 25 kts, especially
at GFL, ALB, and PSF. Some peak winds up to 30 kts cannot be ruled
out if enough boundary layer mixing can occur. Gusty winds should
diminish by 01 UTC with sustained westerly winds remaining around
5-9 kts overnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Speciale