Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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980 FXUS61 KALY 081748 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 148 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will keep clouds across the region today, along with isolated to scattered showers, especially for areas north of Interstate 90. It will also be breezy at times. A compact area of low pressure will bring a period of rain late tonight through Sunday morning, tapering to scattered showers Sunday afternoon. Cooler than normal temperatures and a few showers will continue into early next week as an upper level trough remains nearby. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...As of 1045 AM EDT, widely scattered light showers are ongoing, largely north of I-90, with enhanced cloud cover across much of the region as an upper shortwave tracks eastward into New England. Shower coverage may continue to increase through the remainder of the morning, before diminishing into this evening as the upper impulse exits to the east. The main weather concern for today remains potentially gusty winds developing by this afternoon in areas of higher terrain and along the favored west-northwest flow corridor from the Mohawk Valley across northern portions of the Capital Region and into the Berkshires. Gusts of 25-35 mph remain expected in these areas, while a few gusts in excess of 40 mph cannot be discounted. As such, forecast remains on track; see previous discussion below... .PREV DISCUSSION [0635 AM EDT]...An upper level low across eastern Canada continues to influence our weather, with an embedded disturbance currently tracking across the SW Adirondacks producing scattered showers. Some of these showers will expand east into the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT through mid morning, and could extend into the Mohawk Valley and northern portions of the Capital Region at times. The upper level low will pivot northward this afternoon, allowing for some gradual height rises. This should allow for decreasing coverage of showers from south to north this afternoon, with a few breaks of sun possibly developing, particularly in valley areas. Deeper mixing this afternoon should allow west to northwest winds to become quite gusty, with gusts of 25-35 mph developing by mid to late afternoon as mixing depth increases. A few gusts up to 40 mph could occur near and immediately north of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, especially should any breaks of sun develop. Afternoon max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley areas, with mainly 60s across higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak low/mid level ridging will translate across the region this evening, ahead of a strong upper level disturbance approaching from the west. This should allow for a period of generally dry weather early this evening. However, rain should then expand eastward across the region after midnight as the disturbance and developing compact low pressure system approach. A period of steady light to moderate rain is possible prior to daybreak, especially for areas close to and just north of the I-90 corridor. Low temperatures mainly in the 50s. Periods of rain are expected Sunday morning as the upper level disturbance and compact low pressure system move across the region. As these systems track east of the region, rain should taper to scattered showers in the afternoon. Cold air aloft along with a lingering upper level trough may provide enough instability for isolated low-topped thunderstorms to occur, especially areas north of I-90. Small hail and gusty winds could occur should any thunderstorms develop. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and 65-70 across higher terrain areas. West to northwest winds may become gusty once again Sunday afternoon, although a bit less in magnitude compared to today, perhaps reaching 25-30 mph. Scattered showers should gradually decrease in coverage Sunday night, although may persist across portions of the SW Adirondacks in closer proximity some lake enhancement. Otherwise it will be rather cool with low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s. Upper level trough will pivot southeast across the region Monday into Monday night, bringing more clouds and isolated to scattered rain showers, especially Monday afternoon. It will remain cool, with highs in the 60s for most higher elevations, and lower/mid 70s for valleys. Lows Monday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... While upper level ridging won`t be too far away (building north/east across the Great Lakes), the Northeast is still expected to be under an elongated upper level trough through Tue. Forcing looks to be limited, so will only mention a slight chance of diurnally driven showers in the afternoon to early evening. Temperatures will not be quite as cool as prior days, with highs in the mid 70s for most valley locations. The upper level trough finally exits on Wed, with short wave upper level ridging building east into the area. This will result in dry conditions and temperatures warning to slightly above normal levels. On Thu, heights aloft are forecast to flatten out as the flow regime W-NW, but with a warmer air mass in place. A weak disturbance embedded in the fast flow aloft could produce some showers/T-storms. Moisture/forcing look limited, so will just mention isolated coverage for now. A more substantial upper level trough and associated surface cold front are expected to move into the region on Fri, with a better chance for showers and T-storms. W-SW winds are forecast to strengthen ahead of the trough/front, so should sufficient instability develop, will have to monitor for some potentially stronger storms. Temperatures should continue to be above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through at 06 UTC tonight as mid-level stratocumulus this afternoon clears out late this afternoon with just a BKN cirrus deck in its wake through this evening. After 06 UTC, clouds lower with BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings arriving by 08 - 12 UTC as an organized area of steady/moderate rain overspreads the terminals from northwest to southeast. MVFR ceilings arrive at GFL and ALB first by 08 - 09 UTC as initially light rain quickly becomes steady/moderate resulting in MVFR vis by 10 - 12 UTC. MVFR ceilings then push into PSF by 11-12 UTC as light rain transitions to steady rain by 13 UTC resulting in MVFR vis. There may be periods of IFR ceilings Sunday morning, especially at PSF and GFL but not enough confidence to show IFR ceilings at this point. POU remains south of the steadiest rain and therefore low end VFR conditions may prevail through much of the TAF period. Held off on MVFR conditions at this time. Light rain should push over POU by 12 - 16 UTC but still maintaining VFR conditions. Steady rain exits towards the end of the TAF period 15 - 18 UTC with VFR conditions returning. Breezy westerly winds sustained 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt expected through 00 UTC with the strongest winds expected 19 - 23 UTC as clouds give way to increased sun. Wind speeds decrease this evening, becoming sustained around 5kts by 02-03 UTC. Winds around 5kts continue through tomorrow morning as winds shift to northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to the east and even northeast Sunday morning at PSF. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL/Picard SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Speciale