Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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464 FXUS61 KALY 150052 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 852 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms end this evening. Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds across the region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures before a prolonged period of hot and humid weather arrives for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 815 PM, the majority of the severe weather today has remained south of our area in NJ/NYC/eastern PA with just some non-severe storms in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, Berkshire County and eastern Catskill where dew points remain moist in the low 60s. Further north, a dew point boundary has shifted from north to south across the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and through the Capital District resulting in much lower dew points that have dropped into the low 50s. This boundary has stalled across Greene, Columbia, and southern Berkshire County where a few isolated storms have developed along it. MLCAPE values per the SPC mesoanalysis around 1000J/kg is available south of this boundary where dew points remain moist so will continue to interrogate the updraft strength and other radar signatures to monitor severe weather potential. Otherwise, an area of rain and storms from the organized severe storms in NJ/NYC grazed southern Ulster/Dutches and Litchfield County but did not result in severe weather and even that activity will continue exiting into New England through early evening. As the true cold front and associated cold pool continues to push south and east through the southern Adirondacks this evening, a few isolated showers may develop so maintained slight chance POPs here; however, any showers will diminish with the lose of daytime heating and the shortwave trough shifts eastward. Most showers should end before Midnight. Sfc winds will shift to the north- northwest as the cold front push south and eastward overnight and the incoming dry air will help clear the skies as well with dew points falling behind the boundary. Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning, especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs, otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning, especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in the 70s. Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the 40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon, otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s. Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly likely for much of next week... Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper 80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak front possibly approaches from the north. Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes nearby. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and isolated storms this evening near PSF and POU will diminish by 02 UTC. During any storm, brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibility is possible. Otherwise, ALB and GFL are north of the shower/storm activity and will remain dry. Then, a cold front will continue pushing southward tonight, resulting in clearing skies and a wind shift to the north-northwest. Winds have already shifted to the northwest at GFL with ALB likely shifting by 03-04 UTC followed by PSF 05-06 UTC. Since the wind shift at POU will be delayed until closer to 09 - 11 UTC and skies should clear overnight, some patchy fog may develop given the moist air mass still in place. Included MVFR vis by 05 UTC with patchy fog lingering until the winds shift closer to sunrise. Any patchy fog at POU clears out by 11-12 UTC with VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals through 00 UTC Sunday. North to northeast winds will become breezy by 12 - 15 UTC at all terminals sustained 7 - 11 kts and gusts up to 20-25kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Speciale