905
FXUS61 KALY 080216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1016 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will end north of the Greater Capital
Region overnight, as it will be variably cloudy and cool.
It will be breezy and cooler under partly to mostly cloudy skies on
Saturday with some enhanced lake effect and scattered diurnal driven
rain showers mainly north of the Interstate 90. Then, a widespread
area of rain expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning with
additional scattered showers and some storms possible Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.Update as of 1015 pm EDT...H500 closed low over southeast
Ontario and southwest Quebec continues to bring scattered
showers over the Lake George northern Saratoga Region, eastern
Adirondacks and portions of southern VT. These showers should
diminish north of the Capital Region overnight. It will become
variably cloudy and cool, as the skies will clear some south and
west of Albany. We adjusted the PoPs and removed them south of
the Capital Region overnight. Some patchy fog may form in a few
spots, but the variable sky cover and winds from the southwest
to west at 10 mph or less may prevent it.

Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s with mid and upper 40s
over the higher terrain. Some lake enhanced rain showers and a
weak disturbance will increase clouds from west bring some
showers into the western Adirondacks and the western Mohawk
Valley towards 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy westerly
winds expected through much of Saturday behind our cold front
thanks to an area of strong subsidence building in aloft behind
our exiting shortwave and cold pool. While the subsidence will
help reduce diurnally driven showers and storms, breezy and
cooler westerly winds tracking over the mild Lake Ontario waters
(average lake temp around 18C per GLERL) looks to generate some
lake enhanced showers. The CMC typically handles the inland
extent of lake enhanced showers and it suggests showers extend
into the Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley, and even southern
VT where upslope flow on the windward side of the Greens should
enhance rainfall amounts. Adjusted chance POPs eastward from the
southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley through southern VT mainly
along and north of I-90 to capture this trend with areas south
of I-90 including the mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield, and most
of Berkshire County. Otherwise, westerly winds will be sustained
8-15kts and gusts up to 25kts with the strongest winds up to
30kts down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into Berkshire
County thanks to channeled flow. Otherwise, expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies along and north of I-90 thanks to cold air
advection and enhanced lake moisture with partly to mostly sunny
skies further south.

Temperature wise, highs should end up being slightly below
normal thanks to cool air advection and breezy conditions with
highs only in the low to mid 70s north of I-90 with upper 50s
to low 60s in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.
Areas south of I-90 should see more sun and will likely end up
warmer reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

Rain showers likely diminish in coverage by late afternoon into
the evening with cloud also giving way to increased late day
sun. Partial clearing in the evening will be followed by
increasing clouds after Midnight as another shortwave from the
Great Lakes begins to swing south and eastward.

Guidance has trended wetter for the second half of Saturday
night into Sunday morning as enhanced cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of the shortwave in the Great Lakes results in
increased height falls and forcing for ascent. Confidence is
increasing that this will allow a sfc low to develop over Lake
Erie with a strengthening mid-level jet nosing into the
Northeast resulting in enhanced warm air advection and
isentropic lift. The incoming mid-level jet with 850hPa winds
30-40kts should also enhance moisture advection/transport as
PWATs rise back towards 1 inch. All of these factors will
likely result in a growing rainfall shield that expands as it
tracks eastward across west/central NY overnight spreading into
eastern NY by 06 to 12 UTC Sunday. The period of rain continues
through much of Sunday morning as it advances into western New
England with rainfall totals upwards of 0.15 - 0.30 inches for
much of the area. Locally higher amounts up to 0.50" possible
should any instability result in embedded thunderstorms.

Widespread rain exits into New England by midday Sunday with
breaks of sun returning for the afternoon. However, increased
insolation during the afternoon ahead of our next incoming shortwave
trough and associated height falls will likely lead to
additional scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as
mid-level lapse rates steepen under the next cold pool. While
deep wind shear becomes rather high (40-50kts) thanks to
favorable kinematics, overall instability appears low/meager due
to dew points only in the 50s and a shallow boundary layer/low
equilibrium levels. Thus, most convection should once again be
low-topped. Otherwise, westerly winds remain a bit breezy
through Sunday with temperatures staying seasonably cool only
rising into the low to mid 70s (mid to upper 60s in the hill
towns and higher terrain).

Showers/storms diminish with the loss of daytime heating Sunday
night with overnight lows dropping into the 50s under partly
cloudy skies and ongoing slightly breezy westerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as an upper-
level trough remains overhead. An upper-level shortwave will rotate
around the base of the trough and will aid in the development of
diurnally driven scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the midday and afternoon hours on Monday. Activity may be greatest
across areas north and west of the Capital District. Highs on Monday
will generally be in the 60s and 70s except some upper 50s across
the Adirondacks.

Upper-level heights will rise and surface high pressure returns with
a period of drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will rebound to slightly above normal levels by Wednesday. There is
some uncertainty when the next upper-level trough returns and brings
our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms with some sources
of guidance suggesting Thursday and others holding off until Friday.
For now, will run with the NBM PoPs which includes slight chance to
low chance PoPs both days. Warmer and more humid weather also
returns by the end of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00 UTC Sunday...A closed mid and upper level low will
remain north of the region tonight and lift northeast to
northern New England on Saturday.

Some isolated to scattered showers continue this evening mainly
from KALB-KPSF northward with brief lapses to MVFR conditions.
The loss of the diurnal heating will allow the showers to
diminish. Some patchy mist may form at KALB/KGFL with MVFR
conditions, but a breeze will likely continue with some mid
level clouds which will be around with bases 7-12 kft AGL and
some higher stratus 4-6 kft AGL. Some clearing may occur south
of KALB toward KPOU prior to 12Z/SAT. Some lower stratus is
likely possible shortly before or after 12Z/SAT for MVFR/low VFR
stratus at KALB/KPSF/KGFL in the 2.5-3.5 kft AGL range. Another
disturbance rotating around the mid and upper level low moving
northeast towards Maine on Saturday will bring some isolated-
scattered showers again...mainly from KALB-KPSF north to KGFL.
We placed some PROB30 groups in the TAF sites from 16Z to
22Z/SAT with brief lapses to MVFR cigs/vsbys. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail for the TAF sites.

The winds will be south to west at 5-10 KT early this evening
and may become variable in direction at 5 KT or less after
06Z/SAT. The winds will increase from west at 8-15 KT in the
late morning into the afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula