Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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487 FXUS61 KALY 041723 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather persists today and tomorrow with a warm airmass remaining in place across the region. With high pressure remaining generally dominant, conditions will also be primarily dry for these next two days outside of some isolated to widely scattered, high-elevation showers and thunderstorms. A pattern shift ensues for the latter portion of the week with a strong low pressure system approaching from the west. This system will bring cooler temperatures than recent days as well as several rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .Update...As of 1:20 PM EDT...Temperatures have now risen into the 80s for most of our valley areas. Skies have remained partly to mostly clear this morning, but we are now seeing more development to the cu field especially over the high terrain. A few isolated showers have developed over the high terrain areas, and these areas will continue to experience some isolated showers or a non-severe thunderstorm this afternoon with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Again, just minor updates with this ESTF as previous forecast remains in good shape... .Previous...Throughout the day today, the ridge aloft looks to weaken slightly and slowly begin to shift east. High clouds are expected to increase as a result of a nearby system to our north and west drifting closer eastward, but coverage should maximize at partly cloudy. Winds will gradually begin to back to the south, gradually increasing the humidity across the region due to mild moisture advection. That said, dewpoints will remain in the mid/upper 50s with pockets near 60 and with highs anticipated to reach the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s, conditions will still feel relatively comfortable. While most areas will remain dry throughout the day today, some diurnally-driven, isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could pop up in higher terrain areas due to upslope flow and a weak, nearby disturbance. However, with very limited forcing, low instability (generally less than 1000 J/kg), and low shear, any thunderstorms that develop will be sub-severe. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms should swiftly die out upon the loss of diurnal heating tonight, giving way to dry conditions once again for the overnight period tonight. Clouds are expected to stick around, keeping skies partly cloudy and low temperatures subsequently mild with mid/upper 50s to 60 likely. The upper ridge remains dominant across the region into Wednesday despite the surface high shifting out of the region to the east-southeast. Some breaks in cloud coverage are possible Wednesday morning into the early afternoon courtesy of subsidence from the exiting high, but with upper-level troughing swiftly approaching from the west, clear breaks will quickly fill back in later Wednesday afternoon. That said, skies will likely remain only partly cloudy through prime daytime heating hours such that high temperatures Wednesday reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with pockets of upper 80s possible in valley areas. Southerly flow Wednesday will ensure humidity continues to increase across eastern New York and western New England. Dewpoints are anticipated to increase to the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. With warm, moist air present across the region, there will be chances for additional, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms once again Wednesday. However, with an overall lack of forcing and continued weak buoyancy (SBCAPE < 1000 J/kg), storms should remain sub-severe. The remainder of the short term period will see the beginning of a pattern shift across the region with the approach of a strong, upper-level low pressure system from the northwest. Clouds will continue to increase throughout the overnight period Wednesday, keeping low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some showers will be possible beginning early Thursday morning, mainly west of the Hudson, as upper-level troughing associated with the upper, cut-off low begins to encroach western New York. As the upper low continues to deepen and sink towards the upper Midwest through Thursday, its leading upper trough will continue to dig further across the region, leading to showers becoming more widespread. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible across the region Thursday, however, because of continued uncertainty with the track of the system, it is too early to determine storm severity and the areas at greatest risk for convection. Confidence has grown, however, in the widespread nature of showers for Thursday, so included likely to categorical PoPs with mention of slight chance to chance thunder through Thursday evening. There seems to be a general consensus in the guidance to indicate a dry slot that moves into the region Thursday night, bringing a stop to widespread rain, so decreased PoPs to slight chance to chance during this time. Highs Thursday will be several degrees cooler than today and Wednesday with upper 60s at higher elevations to upper 70s in valley areas. Lows Thursday night will be in the low 50s above 1500 ft to upper 50s and pockets of low 60s in valley areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather expected through the period as an upper disturbance tracks around the southern periphery of an upper cut off low in the Great Lakes and OH Valley Friday into Saturday. Then the primary upper cut off low drifts slowly through our region the rest of the weekend, and lifts northeast Monday and beyond. There is a surprising agreement in sources of guidance/ensembles with the evolution and track of the leading upper disturbance and the upper cut off low. Even with the agreement, the fine details of where the most clouds and chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms sets up, will still likely be adjusted a number of times before the weekend. As is typical with upper closed and cut off lows, showers and thunderstorms form late in the morning and early afternoon. The most coverage of clouds, showers and isolated thunderstorms should be each afternoon due to the instability proximate to the upper cold pool. Breaks in the clouds and more isolated shower activity at night and early morning. So, not the best bunch of days for outdoor activities, including what could be a cool weekend with intervals of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs Friday in the 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks and near 80 mid Hudson Valley. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the lower to mid 70s with mid 60s higher terrain. Highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Visible satellite imagery, web cam imagery and surface observations show that some diurnal cumulus has been developing across the region, along with some scattered cirrus clouds as well. Through the afternoon hours, flying conditions look to remain VFR with sct- bkn cigs around 6 kft and some passing high clouds as well. Radar imagery is showing some isolated showers trying to form over the highest terrain, but CAMs suggest this will be very isolated today, so won`t mention in the TAFs at this time. Through the rest of the day, surface winds will continue to be light, mainly 5 kts or less, from a south to southeasterly direction. For tonight, some lingering mid and high level clouds are expected for most sites. Flying conditions should continue to be VFR with no precip. If enough clearing occurs, some radiational fog may form late in the overnight at KPOU, but this is rather uncertain at this time. Winds will continue to be very light or calm for all sites. On Wednesday, it looks VFR for much of the day once again with just some bands of mid level clouds. Some diurnally-forced clouds around 6-8 kft may develop once again as well. Any precip looks to hold off until Wed night. Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts on Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Main SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Frugis