771
FXUS61 KALY 071047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning sunshine fades behind increasing clouds today as a
closed low moves overhead resulting in additional areas of
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Even cooler, breezy,
and mostly cloudy conditions return for Saturday with some
enhanced lake effect and scattered diurnal driven rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of clouds from the eastern Catskills through Capital
Region to the NY/VT border and southern VT is slowly building
east and will continue to move east through the morning. West
low level flow is limiting low level convergence but gradual low
level cold advection will occur through the day. The upper low
and associated upper cold pool is expected to track mainly north
of the region but part of the upper cold pool and associated
instability will track along and north of I-90 to southern VT.

So, morning sunshine will help with some warming, then
instability will support widespread clouds and the development
of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Mainly just scattered
activity in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, well south of the
upper low and upper cold pool.

Highs in the 70s with around 80 in the Hudson Valley south of
the Capital Region and around 70 higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Decrease in coverage of showers this evening, then just isolated
to scattered showers for the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks the rest of the night. Breaks in the clouds
elsewhere.

There is an increasing agreement in sources of
guidance/ensembles for a small upper ridge in our region much of
Saturday, between the exiting upper closed low and trailing
upper energy in Canada and the Great Lakes. There will still be
some upper dynamics and exiting cold pool aloft, so isolated to
scattered afternoon showers are possible but outdoor activities
Saturday could be mostly dry, especially in the Hudson Valley
and Lake George Saratoga Region to western New England. However,
it could be quite breezy, too, with highs Saturday in the 70s
with around 60 to mid 60s higher terrain.

The upper energy in the Great Lakes tracks generally along the
U.S./Canada border Sunday into Monday, merging with the upper
low in northern New England and SE Canada. So, another upper
cold pool and upper dynamics will support more widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms late Saturday night through
much of Sunday. Highs Sunday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s
higher terrain. Showers exit late Sunday afternoon and evening
and just isolated to scattered showers linger through the night
in the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another disturbance helps to reinforce upper level trough across the
region Monday. Cold air aloft associated with the trough/disturbance
should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop with
diurnal heating by Monday afternoon, before tapering off Monday
night.

Height rises should allow for fair weather for Tuesday, however
lingering cold air aloft could allow for isolated afternoon showers,
especially across higher terrain areas. Depending on the track of
another upper level disturbance, some showers could occur Wednesday
into Thursday as well, especially for higher elevations.

Below normal temperatures Monday should trend to near to above
normal levels by Thursday, with highs in the 60s/70s Monday, warming
to the lower/mid 80s in most valleys and 75-80 for higher elevations
by Thursday. Overnight lows in the 40s/50s Monday-Tuesday night, and
50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Fri, with VFR
conditions then prevailing. Isolated to scattered rain showers
will develop this afternoon, and could result in brief periods
of MVFR Vsbys, perhaps even a few minutes of IFR. A few rumbles
of thunder could accompany any heavier showers.

Showers should decrease in coverage between 22Z/Fri-02Z/Sat,
with clouds persisting with Cigs of 5000-7000 FT AGL. Cigs may
lower into borderline MVFR range after 08Z/Sat at KGFL and KALB.

Light/variable to calm winds will become southwest at 4-8 KT by
mid morning, then west to southwest at 5-10 KT this afternoon
and tonight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any heavier showers.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL