070
FXUS61 KALY 150250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1050 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms end this evening.
Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds
across the region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun and
seasonable temperatures before a prolonged period of hot and
humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

As of 10:30PM EDT...The organized area of rain and thunderstorms
have exited into New England with just a few lingering isolated
showers spilling into the southern Adirondacks and eastern
Catskills. These showers are very minor and short-lived so
removed POPs from the forecast for the rest of the night.
Otherwise, there are two boundaries we continue to monitor.
First is the true cold front/wind shift boundary which continues
to slowly push southward and based on sfc observations, it is
hung up between Albany and Glens Falls. The second is the dew
points boundary which has pushed south of Capital District but
is hung up around Greene/Columbia County southward as dew points
in these southern areas still show dew points in the 60s. Given the
delayed arrival for these boundaries over the mid-Hudson
Valley, once the thicker cirrus clouds exit, enough radiational
cooling could occur to support some patchy fog development,
especially where rain occurred in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW
CT.

These boundaries should gradually push southward by the pre-
dawn hours resulting in a cooler/less humid air mass
overspreading the entire region.

Previous discussion...As the true cold front and associated
cold pool continues to push south and east through the southern
Adirondacks this evening, a few isolated showers may develop so
maintained slight chance POPs here; however, any showers will
diminish with the lose of daytime heating and the shortwave
trough shifts eastward. Most showers should end before Midnight.
Sfc winds will shift to the north- northwest as the cold front
push south and eastward overnight and the incoming dry air will
help clear the skies as well with dew points falling behind the
boundary.

Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this
evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward
daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or
below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the
40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly
likely for much of next week...

Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next
week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM
mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s
Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper
80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat
indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas
during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the
Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may
develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak
front possibly approaches from the north.

Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max
temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper
70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be
some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern
Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and isolated storms this evening near PSF and POU will
diminish by 02 UTC. During any storm, brief MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibility is possible. Otherwise, ALB and GFL are north of
the shower/storm activity and will remain dry. Then, a cold
front will continue pushing southward tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and a wind shift to the north-northwest. Winds
have already shifted to the northwest at GFL with ALB likely
shifting by 03-04 UTC followed by PSF 05-06 UTC. Since the wind
shift at POU will be delayed until closer to 09 - 11 UTC and
skies should clear overnight, some patchy fog may develop given
the moist air mass still in place. Included MVFR vis by 05 UTC
with patchy fog lingering until the winds shift closer to
sunrise.

Any patchy fog at POU clears out by 11-12 UTC with VFR
conditions prevailing at all terminals through 00 UTC Sunday.

North to northeast winds will become breezy by 12 - 15 UTC at
all terminals sustained 7 - 11 kts and gusts up to 20-25kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL/Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale