156
FXUS61 KALY 201008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
608 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend begins today with mainly dry weather
across the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will feature temperatures
well into the 80s to around 90 for may valley areas with a chance
for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms especially for western
areas. A cold front brings increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday, with cooler and drier
weather expected Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 6:10 AM EDT...Much of the low stratus that was
across the Hudson Valley earlier tonight has dissipated, which
allowed temperatures to drop several degrees in the last few
hours with light to calm winds across most of the region. So, it
is a seasonably cool start to the day with most areas in the
upper 40s to low 50s. There is some low stratus in Windham and
eastern Litchfield Counties, and some patchy fog in some of the
river valleys that remained calm and clear last night. Fog and
low stratus should burn off within the next few hours, with
skies becoming partly to mostly clear for much of today. Other
than nudging temps down a couple degrees through the next hour
or two, just very minor adjustments with this update. Previous
forecast remains on track with more details in the previous
discussion below...

.Previous...A ridge of high pressure at the surface currently
extends over our region from the northeast, with ridging aloft
also over the region. Today, the upper ridge continues to
amplify as it undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking. The surface
high remains off to our east and a warm front tracks through our
region from the west. There isn`t enough moisture for much if
any precip with this warm front, although a spot shower can`t
totally be ruled out over the high terrain of the Catskills or
ADKs this afternoon. However, most of the region should see
partly cloudy skies. Warming airmass and deep mixing to around
800 mb per BUFKIT forecast soundings suggests highs today reach
into the low to mid 80s for the valley areas, especially north
and west of Albany where there will be less influence from the
southeasterly onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, the surface high will be located just to our south,
with continued upper ridging overhead. Light southerly flow may
result in some additional low stratus again tonight, especially
across the Mid Hudson Valley and/or southwestern New England.
Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies are expected for most
of the night with some patchy fog in some of the typical areas.
With a slightly warmer airmass in place, overnight lows will
only drop into the 50s for most areas.

By 12z Tuesday, the ridge aloft will have folded over on itself,
resulting in more zonal flow aloft for our area. A convectively
induced shortwave and associated remnant MCS activity will be
tracking to our north near the international border. A few
showers or thunderstorms could form across the ADKs along
the outflow from this area of storms. Additionally, a separate
weak upper impulse approaching from the west during the
afternoon and evening could provide enough forcing for a few
showers or thunderstorms across the western Mohawk Valley.
Tuesday will be the warmest day so far this year for most areas,
with temperatures climbing well into the 80s to around 90 for
many valley areas. With upper 50s to low 60s dew points, we
could see 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE west and north of Albany.
However, the best vertical wind shear should remain north of our
area, so at this time the probability for severe weather looks
low Tuesday afternoon and evening. If we see more in the way of
clouds from the convection to our north, then temperatures could
end up a couple degrees cooler than currently forecast for
northern areas.

Tuesday night, any showers or thunderstorms should diminish
within a few hours of sunset as instability wanes with the loss
of daytime heating. There will be a few more clouds around with
the upper impulse nearby, and the warmer airmass will result in
lows mainly in the 50s to 60s. While our area will generally see
tranquil weather Tuesday night, a surface low will be
intensifying over the upper midwest as an associated upper
trough becomes negatively tilted and closes off aloft. These
features will track from the western Great Lakes into southern
Canada Wednesday and Wednesday night. The system`s cold front
looks to approach our area late Wednesday night, although there
are still some timing differences in the guidance.

So, with the cold front off to our west Wednesday, it will be
another hot day, with most areas a degree or two warmer than on
Tuesday. Feels-like temperatures/heat indices look to max out
around 90F, so it looks like we should fall short of heat
advisory criteria (95F). With the warm temps and upper 50s to
low 60s dew points, instability once again builds potentially in
excess of 1500 J/kg. A pre-frontal trough may provide enough
forcing for some showers or thunderstorms to develop during the
afternoon, especially west of I-87. However, shear still looks
relatively weak with the best upper dynamics remaining off to
our west, so probability for any strong to severe storms looks
low once again. Wednesday night will be warm as well, with
overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 60s. If the actual cold
front does approach our western areas towards the end of the
period, then some additional showers or thunderstorms would be
possible, but the exact timing of the front is still uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front associated with a low pressure system over Ontario and
Quebec looks to cross the region on Thursday. Guidance is beginning
to come into better agreement on the timing of the front with the
front located across western New York early in the day and cross
eastern areas by the afternoon hours. While the main upper-level
energy will be displaced well to the north and west, some shortwave
energy crossing our region will allow for some showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. With the latest timing
of the front, there may be enough of an overlap of instability (500-
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (30-40 kt 0-6km) for some stronger
storms. Will monitor trends in the coming days.

Cooler and less humid air returns behind the front for Friday into
Saturday as high pressure returns. An upper-level shortwave will
pass by to our north on Friday with any shower activity also staying
to the north. Highs Friday and Saturday return to the 60s and 70s.

There are some timing differences with the next upper-level
disturbance but chances for showers return either for the second
half of the weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z/Tue...Any lingering fog will lift early this morning,
then VFR conditions will be in place into this evening at all sites
with high pressure nearby. Potential is higher for more widespread
fog development tonight. As a result, showed MVFR vsbys at all sites
between 06-12z/Tue. Will fine tune the fog potential in later TAF
issuances.

Wind will be variable or out of the south to southeast at 5 kt or
less through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
CLIMATE...Speciale