320
FXUS61 KALY 100530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will gradually spread northward toward the
Capital Region this morning, as low pressure passes to our south
across the mid Atlantic region. Mostly cloudy, cool and showery
conditions are expected Friday through the upcoming weekend, as a
series of upper level disturbances move across the area.
Temperatures will be below normal, with more clouds than sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 107 AM EDT...Low pressure continues to develop over
northern VA and MD. An inverted sfc trough north of the wave is
spreading some showers gradually northward toward I-90. High
pressure remains near Maine. We made it cloudy over the forecast
area with this update. We also re-trended temps, as some
locations in the southern Dacks have already fallen into the
lower/mid 40s in the southern Dacks. We did slow down the trend
of showers getting north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital
Region based on the dry low-level air mass over the region,
which is evident in the 00Z KALY sounding. In fact some
locations north of the Capital Region may stay dry prior to
sunrise. Lows will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the
mountains.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Showers continue into Friday, as another wave of low pressure
develops along the front in the mid Atlantic region, with the
inverted surface trough expected to shift slightly westward. So
this should result in the area of widespread showers gradually
moving west mostly into central NY. So there will likely be
drying for much of the area except for the western Mohawk Valley
and eastern Catskills where showers will linger the longest and
take most of the day for to shift west. Still, with an upper
level trough overhead there could be some light scattered
showers elsewhere along with mostly cloudy skies. Highs should
only range from the upper 40s to to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis moves through during the first half of
Fri night, then quickly shifts east off the coast overnight. So
there may be isolated to scattered showers around through around
midnight, with drying overnight due to some short wave ridging.
Lows should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly/mostly
cloudy skies.

On Sat it looks like we will be between systems, with short
wave ridging in place ahead of a deepening upper low approaching
from the Great Lakes. As the leading short wave associated with
the trough moves in, chances for showers will gradually
increase from NW to SE mainly during the afternoon to early
evening hours. Most of the day looks dry for areas south/east of
Albany. Temperatures will remain cool, with 850 mb temperature
anomalies hovering near -1 to -2 STDEV. Highs look to mainly
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

As the upper trough moves in Sat night, scattered showers are
expected to develop again. The showers should be mainly light.
With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will be similar to
recent nights ranging from upper 30s to upper 40s.

An associated surface wave will track from west/central PA Sat
night to near the Delmarva Sun morning. Another inverted surface
trough will extend north/west from the wave into central NY
during the day Sun. This provide additional chances for showers,
although the more widespread showers should be in closer
proximity to the trough in the western part of the area such as
the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. It will be
another cool day with mostly cloudy skies. Highs range from the
lower 50s to lower 60s.

The upper low shifts east off the coast Sun night, with some
short wave ridging moving in. This should result in clearing
skies with lows a bit cooler with upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures finally look to moderate to near normal levels on
Mon. A warm front approaching from the west may bring some
showers during the afternoon. The pattern is then expected to
turn more unsettled from Tue through Thu, although forecast
confidence decreases with regards to details. A
warmer/seasonable air mass should be in place by Tue, with a SW
flow aloft over region and an upper low tracking east across
central Quebec. At the surface, a cold front may bring showers
and some thunderstorms.

On Wed, the front pushes south, but another upper level trough
is expected to move east across the southern Appalachians, which
could spawn a surface cyclone near the old front. This system
may get close enough for some rainfall, but there are
differences in the guidance with regards to storm
track/evolution. Will continue to mention chance PoPs for now.

Forecast confidence remains low into Thursday, although the
latest guidance indicates it may end up being on the drier side
due to possible ridging. Temperatures expected to remain near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Prevailing VFR conditions with cigs above 6
kft and unrestricted vsbys will give way to increasing likelihood of
MVFR cigs/vsbys within light rain showers as a warm front lifts
across the region. POU remains the terminal expected to see the most
impacts from showers with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected after 08Z Fri.
Showers will continue through much of the day, but vsby restrictions
are only anticipated within heavier shower elements while VFR vsbys
prevail. Farther north, ALB/PSF may also see period of MVFR vsbys
and cigs within light showers, but coverage and duration are
expected to be less than at POU with prevailing VFR conditions.
Showers may again linger into the afternoon, with low confidence in
any terminal impacts. GFL remains the least likely to see vsby/cig
reductions as showers may remain south of the terminal, and have
maintained prevailing VFR throughout the period in TAF. Showers
largely end after 00Z Sat as conditions return to VFR across the
region.

Light east to northeast winds at 3-8 kt will continue through much
of the period, with flow turning out of the east to southeast after
12-18Z Fri. POU/PSF may see occasional gusts to 15 kt through 18Z
Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Picard