413
FXUS64 KAMA 252321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue across the central and
western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds continue to have
gusts over 40 mph at some sites and relative humidity values are
in the single digits for most of the forecast area. The Red Flag
Warning and Wind Advisory will continue for a few more hours this
evening.

Thunderstorm chances have greatly decreased and will continue to
do so the rest of the evening as the dry line pushes eastward into
Oklahoma.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

For today, model agreement continues to see an upper-level trough
move through the Panhandles and set up good southwesterly flow
for the area. Look for this southwesterly flow to hold for the day
and work in tandem with a lee-side surface low in creating very
dry and gusty day conditions for the Panhandles. Currently, latest
guidance expects relative humidity values to bottom out across
the Panhandles with most of the western counties looking at values
in the single digits clear into this evening Meanwhile, an upper-
level jet will look to follow the weak trough into the area and
bleed down to create gusty condition across the Panhandles. As it
stand, southwesterly winds reaching the 25 to 30 mph mark with
gust nearing 45 mph are possible. However, even stronger winds are
possible in the northwestern Panhandles thanks to lee-side low.
Here winds speeds could reach closer to 30 to 25 mph with gust
nearing 50 mph. Given the presences of such strong winds, a Wind
Advisory has been issued for the northwestern most counties until
8 pm tonight.

Of course when you add these dry conditions with gusty winds,
critical fire weather is to be expected. At this time, a Red Flag
Warning has been issue for the western half of the Panhandles that
will run until 10 pm this afternoon. As for temperatures, look for
them to rebound with many locations back into 90s with a couple of
our hotter locations flirting with triple digits yet again.
Otherwise, the only other concern for the day will be the very low
potential of thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the
Panhandles before moving off into central Oklahoma. Heading into
Sunday, model agreement continues to see the rest of the trough
move through in the form of a weak cold frontal passage early that
morning. This frontal passage will see winds shift to a more
westerly and northwesterly direction with much slower speeds for
the afternoon compared to today. Otherwise, expect much quieter
weather for the day with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A ridge is still highly likely to be building over NM and CO on
Monday as a trough sits over eastern CONUS. The combination of
these features will set up a upper level broad NW flow across the
panhandles. This will cause the surface winds to shift to the SE
starting on Memorial Day that will allow gulf moisture to return
to the panhandles. This moisture wont arrive into the panhandles
for Memorial Day keeping the skies mostly sunny with fair weather
conditions throughout the holiday. Tuesday on the other hand will
see the gulf moisture arrive into the panhandles with this
moisture feed persisting through Thursday. This moisture will fuel
rain showers and thunderstorms that can impact the entire
panhandles for each of these days. Moisture trends continue to be
wetter so this increases confidence that any rain shower or
thunderstorms will produce meaningful rainfall when it occurs.
However there is to much of a good thing for if this trend
continues then flooding concerns will be on the rise. Currently
there is already some indications that these rain showers or
thunderstorms could produce well over an inch of rainfall. So if
multiple rain showers or thunderstorms hit an area or if an
especially intense storm occurs then flooding may easily result.
As for stronger thunderstorms there are some small scale
trough that will likely pass over the ridge then across the
panhandles each day Tuesday through Wednesday. This should provide
enough additional instability and dynamics for a few strong to
even severe thunderstorms to form. This period of dynamic weather
will wane come Friday as the ridge becomes progressive and passes
east across the panhandles. This will end the influx of gulf
moisture to the panhandles as well as bring broadly more stable
conditions. This wont end the rain showers and thunderstorms but
make them more isolated with less rainfall potential. Going into
next weekend a trough seems to be the more probable feature to
move across the region following the ridge. Assuming that moisture
is still present then rain showers and thunderstorms will still
occur in the panhandles. This remain uncertain as the pattern
following the ridge is still very much in flux. Temperatures
through next week are likely to be somewhat stable with highs
remaining in the 80s to lower 90s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds of 30 to 40 kts will continue for another few
hours at all sites. After sunset, winds should decrease down to 15
kts or less with occasional gusts out of the west. Winds will
become northwesterly near sunrise and should be around 15 kts.
Clear skies are forecast all all terminals.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  57  88  50  90 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              53  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  61  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              56  91  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  90  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               62  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 52  86  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  55  86  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                58  92  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   61  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  93  58  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05